967
FXUS61 KCTP 072334
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
734 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Beneficial rainfall expands west to east through tonight
  before ending from NW to SE early Wednesday morning
* Breezy and noticeably cooler tomorrow feeling more like Fall;
  start of another prolonged dry stretch into the weekend
* Nighttime frost/freeze potential increasing mid to late week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z radar trends show rain showers making more of an eastward
push into the western Alleghenies early this afternoon. Wave of
low pressure and PW max near KY/IN/OH seems to have robbed the
best moisture return so far into CPA via southwest LLJ ahead of
primary cold front crossing Lake Erie. All indications from
hires model data indicate a continued uptick/west-to-east
expansion of shower activity through the evening hours with
beneficial rainfall continuing overnight into early Wednesday
morning. Much drier/increasing northerly flow behind the cold
front will end rainfall from NW to SE across most of CPA by
12Z/8AM Wed. Min temps trend 10-15 degrees lower across the NW
mtns with lows in the mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Turing breezy and noticeably cooler tomorrow with mix of sun
and clouds as 1030+mb high pressure migrates southeastward over
the Great Lakes. The airmass associated with this seasonably
strong anticyclone will be the coldest so far this season and
bring (after many days of above normal daytime warmth) the
first prolonged stretch of seasonably cooler Fall weather to
CPA. This stretch should also include the first widespread frost
and freeze with the highest risk Thursday night into early
Friday morning. Frost and freeze headlines will likely be needed
in the next 1-2 forecast cycles. Max temps on Thursday are
expected to be ~5 degrees below the historical average for early
October.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure stays pretty much locked in over the region in
stagnant blocking pattern with closed/sfc low offshore the OBX.
This will translate into an extended dry stretch at least
through Saturday. Easterly flow could begin to influence the
area by the end of the weekend with various model solutions even
suggesting some potential for rain across the eastern part of
the forecast area as the low tracks northward off the Mid
Atlantic coast. Daytime highs trend near to above the seasonal
average with the largest departures (+5-10F) across northwest
PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Multiple rounds of showers will continue through the night
ahead of a cold front which is just beginning to enter northwest
PA. Some of the showers may be heavy and may lead to visibility
restrictions. While there has been occasional lightning with
some of the showers over northern Maryland, as well as with the
showers along the cold front itself, we will continue to keep
mentions of thunder out of the TAFs as the already limited
instability will decrease over the next couple of hours.

IFR ceilings have developed at BFD and JST, but all other TAF
sites remain VFR as of 23Z. Low clouds will gradually expand
eastward into the early morning, but there is a wide range of
solutions in the models as to how low ceilings get. The LAMP
suggests a prolonged period of IFR ceilings at all airfields
except MDT and LNS, but the HREF indicates a high probability of
ceilings improving quickly behind the cold front as much drier
air works its way in from the northwest. Model RH profiles from
the HRRR and RAP would favor the HREF solution, and we have
leaned towards that outcome with the 00Z TAF package. IFR
visibilities also can`t be completely ruled out across the area,
but the best chance for that appears to be at JST.

Cloud cover quickly decreases after sunrise as high pressure
builds in, giving way to mainly clear skies with scattered
diurnal cumulus in the afternoon. Winds will turn to the
northwest behind the cold front and will be sustained at 10 to
15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots likely.

Outlook...

Thu...VFR.

Fri-Sun...Patchy AM fog, otherwise clear with VFR conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff/Bauco
AVIATION...Bauco