575
FXUS61 KCTP 061803
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
203 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Frost Advisory issued for Warren, McKean, Elk, Cameron, and
  Potter Counties for tonight.
* Added slight chance PoPs for showers tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few showers possible today and tomorrow, though the better
chance for rain will be this weekend.

2) Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze potential
returning tonight and tomorrow night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A few showers possible today and tomorrow, though
the better chance for rain will be this weekend.

The bulk of the rain from earlier today has moved off to the
east, though patchy drizzle and a few showers will remain
possible through the rest of the day. A wave of low pressure is
expected to ride along a cold front as it exits the region to
the east later this evening, and this may bring a few showers
back into southeastern PA. Any additional rainfall will be
light. Most of Central Pennsylvania is expected to be dry
tomorrow, but a shortwave rotating through the base of a
longwave trough may trigger a few showers during the afternoon.
Rain chances increase for the weekend as multiple disturbances
track across the area.

      -------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze
potential returning tonight and tomorrow night.

High pressure building in behind the cold front tonight will
allow for skies to clear out over northwest PA and for winds to
become calm. This should support efficient radiational cooling
and we expect temperatures to fall into the mid 30s over much of
the northern tier. Frost formation appears most likely over the
northwestern corner of the CWA and we have issued a Frost
Advisory for Warren, McKean, Elk, Cameron, and Potter Counties
which is in effect from midnight through 8 am Friday. There was
some consideration to include Clearfield and Tioga Counties in
the advisory as well, but joint probabilities of temperature
less than 37, wind less than 5 mph, and mainly clear skies from
the HREF were only around 50-60 percent. That being said, patchy
frost may still be possible in forecast zones bordering the
advisory area.

Another chilly night is expected for Thursday night with frost
and freeze conditions possible once again. Not many pixels of
32F or lower on the MinT grid, but a small (20%) risk is there
for someone to have a freeze across the NW. The risk for frost
is much more - around 70% for the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel
Highlands.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The steadiest rain has exited Central PA early this afternoon
as the best synoptic-scale forcing has moved over New England.
A cold front will continue moving eastward across the
Commonwealth this evening, with flight restrictions improving to
VFR regionwide later today (primarily between 23Z Wednesday to
01Z Thursday). A narrow corridor of instability (MLCAPE up to
around 100 J/kg) has been projected to develop ahead of this
front over Eastern PA (KMDT/KLNS), though a downtrend in
destabilization has been observed on latest CAM runs (e.g. HRRR
& 3km NAM). As a result, brief visibility restrictions to around
5SM are possible underneath any heavier showers, with thunder
remaining unlikely.

Overnight, clearing skies and light winds will favor fog
development & low-lying frost across the Northern Tier (KBFD).
Even the pessimistic NAM keeps possible fog development largely
contained to the Northern Tier, with lower fog probabilities across
East-Central PA with surface winds closer to 5 kts. Otherwise,
regionwide VFR is expected through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thu...Patchy morning fog across Northern Tier. Otherwise, VFR
with some spotty afternoon/evening -SHRA.

Fri...VFR with some spotty afternoon/evening -SHRA.

Sat...Restrictions possible in -RA.

Sun...VFR favored early, with restrictions becoming more likely
in the afternoon as cold front moves SE. -SHRA with isolated
-TSRA possible as cold front passes through.

Mon...VFR favored, with restrictions possible SE from lingering
-SHRA/-RA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
PAZ004>006-010-011.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco
KEY MESSAGES...Bauco
DISCUSSION...Bauco/Lambrech
AVIATION...Teare