134
FXUS61 KCTP 261128
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
628 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Winter Storm Warning cancelled
* Extreme Cold Warning and Cold Weather Advisory issued from
  this evening into Tuesday morning

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frigid temperatures and bitterly cold wind chills continue
through the end of January into Groundhog Day

2) Potential East Coastal Storm Threat this weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Frigid temperatures and bitterly cold wind chills
continue through the end of January into Groundhog Day

In the wake of widespread heavy snow, we enter a prolonged deep
freeze through the end of January to Groundhog Day. The fierce
cold will feature frigid temperatures and sub-zero to extremely
cold/dangerous wind chills. Cold weather hazards have been
issued from this evening through Tuesday morning, but likely
won`t be the last for the upcoming week. The anomalous arctic
cold will have staying power through the week with daytime high
temperatures remaining below the freezing mark with potential
for some daily record lows to be set.

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With heavy snow ended, we cancelled the winter storm warning to
shift focus to cold weather hazards. However, hazardous travel
conditions will continue this morning with frigid temperatures
and snow covered roadways. Areas of blowing and drifting snow
are expected as winds increase through midday.

Cold cyclonic flow aloft and reinforced shots of arctic air will
allow for rounds of upslope snow focused across the higher
terrain in the Laurel Highlands and NW Alleghenies through the
upcoming week. Increasing Great Lakes ice coverage especially on
Lake Erie will greatly diminish or perhaps shut down the lake
effect snow machine for now.

------------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Potential East Coastal Storm Threat this weekend

There is a growing guidance signal for the development of a
potentially impactful weekend coastal storm along the Eastern
Seaboard. We will continue to monitor given risk of snow and
wind impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At 12z, IFR conds were found across the western highlands
(BFD/JST) in occasional -SHSN. Elsewhere, MVFR to low-end VFR
cigs we found with little more than a few flurries.

Continued improvement is expected for the Susq Valley and
central mtns today, but the western highlands will be slower to
improve as -SHSN continue there. A breezy W/NW wind will
develop areawide, with gusts of 20-25 kts expected through the
day.

Lingering -SHSN activity across the west should diminish
tonight, and winds should become a bit less gusty. However, it
may be tough to shake the MVFR cigs across the western
highlands through 12z Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tue-Fri...Periods of lake effect and upslope snow showers
remain possible across N/W PA, with restrictions possible;
otherwise, chilly and breezy areawide.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record daily maximum snowfall set at Harrisburg and Williamsport
yesterday (01/25/2026):

10.2 inches of snow at Williamsport broke the previous daily
record of 9.2 inches set back in 1958.

14.0 inches of snow at Harrisburg broke the previous daily
record of 5.4 inches set back in 1988.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Tuesday for PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042.
Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Tuesday for PAZ017-024-033.
Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for PAZ018-019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Evanego
CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Evanego