739
FXUS61 KCTP 051111
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
711 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No major changes this forecast cycle.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm and windy conditions expected today with gusts to 40
mph possible.

2) Heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible in NW PA this
afternoon and evening.

3) More widespread stratiform rain expected across central PA on
Wed.

4) Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze concerns returning
Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm and windy conditions today with gusts to 40
mph possible.

Today (Tuesday) will be the warmest day of the week for most
locations (exception may be NW PA where more clouds/convection
could limit MaxTs). Across the south and east, highs will likely
get into the lower 80s.

Model soundings show a nearly dry adiabatic lapse rate in the
lowest 2-3 KM south/east of I-80/I-99. With SW flow of 35-45
kts in the 2-3 KM layer, wind gusts of 40 mph cant be ruled out
at the sfc. Since minRH values are expected to range from 25-35
pct across south central PA, there could be an increased risk
of wildfire spread, particularly in places that have not greened
up yet (e.g. higher elevations).

Partners from the PA Bureau of Forestry indicate that green up
is complete south of I-80 and the risk of rapid wildfire spread
should remain low. Clouds in far northern PA will keep RH values
in the 40-55% range. Along and just north of I-80, there may be
a narrow corridor with an elevated risk of rapid wildfire
spread. A Special Weather Statement may be needed there.
Regardless, warm, windy, and dry conditions necessitate caution
with any activities that could start a fire today.

Key Message 2: Heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible in
NW PA this afternoon and evening.

Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder across central
PA early this morning will be followed by a lull in the action
from mid morning through early afternoon. By 16-18z, the
approaching cold front and preexisting Erie lake breeze boundary
should provide enough sfc convergence for convection initiation
in NW PA. SPC outlook is just for general thunder, but gusty
winds can`t be ruled out given the strong ambient flow. HRRR
suggests a few discrete cells east of the boundary, with some
rotating right movers possible in the northern tier and up into
NY State. Given the slow eastward translation of the cold front,
convective precip will likely be confined to NW PA, but local
amounts in excess of 1 inch are possible. Warren County is
included in WPCs D2 MRGL risk for excessive rain.

Key Message 3: More widespread stratiform rain expected across
central PA on Wed.

Best odds for widespread stratiform rain are Tue night into Wed
as an upper shortwave trough moves overtop the cold front.
Several model runs depict the rain ending prior to suppertime
on Wednesday. It is worth noting, however, that an increasing
number of models keep trending the end time later and later,
with light showers/clouds/unsettled weather lingering perhaps as
late as Thursday afternoon or evening. This stratiform precip
shield is forecast to drop between 0.25 and 0.75 inch of rain.
In total, rainfall totals between Tuesday and Thursday will
range from as little as a quarter inch of rain along and south
of the PA Turnpike to upwards of 1.5 inches in northwest PA.

Key Message 4: Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze
concerns returning Thursday night

Temperatures once again turn cooler behind the cold front. The
first chilly night is Wed night, with minT in the 33-35 range
along and north of US-6. Some frost is possible, but it depends
on how quickly clouds clear out behind the departing precip.
Frost will be more likely Thursday night, with skies more likely
to be clear with an axis of high pressure extending into PA.
Lows on Friday morning are progged in the low to mid 30s west of
I-99 and north of I-80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly VFR categories and Tuesday. Transient showers will pass
through the region the rest over the next few hours with any
flight restrictions expected to be brief. Any remaining showers
decrease across the rest of the morning Tuesday, giving way to
mainly dry and gusty conditions for the rest of the morning and
afternoon for most of the state. MVFR ceilings may develop at
BFD, though the rest of Central PA should remain VFR. Expect
southwesterly wind gusts to increase to 20 to 25 knots by 15Z,
and as strong as 35 kts in the afternoon. Convective showers and
thunderstorms will likely break out across the north and west
Tue afternoon, with more widespread stratiform rain later Tue
night into Wed. This will most likely impact flight categories
in the northwest with IFR conditions expected at BFD with low
ceilings developing this evening.

Model guidance is depicting a robust area of LLWS developing in
E PA and impacting mostly IPT, MDT, and LNS after 00Z
Wednesday. Model guidance appears to be overestimating
magnitudes, however, 40kts of LLWS for multiple hours overnight
seems reasonable at this time as an 850mb jet takes hold. Will
watch for increases as more current guidance comes in throughout
the day.


Outlook...

Wed...Widespread restrictions and stratiform rain early tapers
to lingering showers.

Thu-Fri...-SHRA possible, but trending drier.

Sat...Restrictions possible in rain.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Multiple low temperature records were set or tied across
central Pennsylvania for May 3rd:

Altoona observed a low temperature of 31 degrees, breaking the
previous record of 32 degrees set in 1957.

Johnstown observed a low temperature of 29 degrees, which ties
the previous record of 29 degrees set in 1941.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert
AVIATION...Colbert/Lambrech
CLIMATE...Beaty/Lambrech