167
FXUS61 KCTP 261901
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
301 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few gusty thunderstorms possible across portions of the
Lower and Middle Susquehanna Valley this afternoon and evening.

2) Turning more humid and unsettled early in the upcoming week
with the highest probability for showers and thunderstorms
Monday afternoon and evening and again on Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1:  A few gusty thunderstorms possible across
portions of the Lower and Middle Susquehanna Valley this
afternoon and evening.

A weak upper level disturbance embedded in the NW flow aloft
will race SE and over a favorable zone of convergence along a
lee trough that will be situated across the Middle and Lower
Susq Valley this afternoon/early evening.

Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s convergence and the
passage of the left exit region of a 90 kt jet max over Ohio and
SW PA late this afternoon will provide the fuel and favorable
larger scale UVVEL for some pulse and small clusters of
strong to potentially svr multicell TSRA across the I-81 and RT
11/15 corridors in southern PA within a fairly narrow corridor
of sfc-based CAPE between 1000-1500 J/KG between 18Z-00Z.
Though dry air aloft and weak shear should help to limit updraft
strength, a few stronger storms may produce isolated strong to
severe wind gusts this afternoon. SPC has maintained the
marginal risk for severe weather across the Susquehanna Valley.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Turning more humid and unsettled early in the
upcoming week with the highest probability for showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening and again on Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the coverage of
storms during the day on Monday as upper level forcing is
expected to remain weak. We should see at least scattered
thunderstorm development during the afternoon as modest
instability develops, but shear will remain weak. The severe
threat appears to be low, but a few strong to severe wind gusts
will be possible with any stronger storms. Some models show an
MCS diving south from the Great Lakes Monday night which could
impact western portions of the area, but confidence is low on
timing and placement of this feature.

Tuesday will likely see the most widespread showers and
thunderstorms of the week as a potent shortwave approaches from
the west and its associated surface low tracks over the region.
Showers and storms will likely be ongoing across parts of
Central PA Tuesday morning and should continue through the rest
of the day. The potential for severe weather remains uncertain
as it will depend on much we are able to destabilize behind the
morning showers and storms. SPC has areas roughly along and
south of I-80 in a marginal risk for severe weather and they
have included far southern portions of the area in a slight
risk.

Heavy rain will also be a concern Monday evening into Tuesday
with any storms that develop as PWAT values will climb to around
1.8 inches. Storms will be very efficient rainfall producers and
areas that see repeated rounds of thunderstorms may see some
flash flooding concerns develop. WPC has placed nearly all of
Central PA in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for both
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Conditions this afternoon are VFR with a SCT to BKN cloud layer.
Current visible satellite shows some bubbling of the cloud tops
so added the chance of -SHRA or -TSRA in a few locations this
afternoon and evening. These would only bring conditions down
to MVFR at times, but could set the stage for late night BR or
FG over the higher elevation airfields. In areas where
confidence is lower (20%), just a mention of MVFR was added.

Monday morning through the end of this forecast period will see
MVFR to VFR conditions with light winds.

Outlook...

Mon afternoon...Restrictions likely in afternoon -SHRA/-TSRA.
Patchy overnight fog possible.

Tue...Restrictions likely with scattered -SHRA/-TSRA.

Wed-Thu...Restrictions possible as -SHRA/-TSRA becomes less
numerous. Patchy overnight fog possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Bauco
AVIATION...Beaty/Tyburski