766
FXUS61 KCTP 240434
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1134 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Fair and tranquil tonight-Monday
* Trending milder with periods of rain Tuesday and Wednesday
* Windy and much colder with lake effect snow Thanksgiving Day
  through Black Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Northern tier showers earlier this evening have since
dissipated. Winds at the sfc continue to relax into tonight.
Skies are clear across much of the area, but stratocu should
persist across the northeast zones on the backside of departing
upper trough under 850mb cold pool. There is some potential for
late night radiational fog along the western Alleghenies
beneath 1025mb high pressure center reaching southwest PA by
12Z Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Good travel conditions are expected to start Thanksgiving week
with fair and tranquil weather on Monday. High and mid level
clouds will increase through Monday night as a milder warm
advection pattern quickly shifts downstream from Ohio Valley.
Light mixed precip could reach the southwest mtns as early as
12Z Tuesday, although the probability is low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mild trend continues through midweek with max temps peaking on
Wednesday in the 50-60F range or +10-15 degrees above the
historical average for late November. Periods of rain are
expected to move over the area Tuesday and Wednesday which
could slow holiday travel. Overall NBM has 0.25-0.50 inch of
rain in the Tue-Wed period, but it is worth noting that the NBM
75th pctl has as much as 0.50 inch of rain falling in just a 6
hour period from 1-7 PM Tuesday across potions of south central
PA. Rain on Wednesday will likely be less widespread and more
confined to the cold FROPA.

Conditions turn breezy by Wednesday afternoon ahead of a well-
defined cold front poised to plow through PA Wednesday night.
Blustery post-frontal flow with gusts 30-40 mph Thursday and
Friday is expected to deliver much colder temperatures for
Thanksgiving Day. This pattern shift to cold/blustery WSW to WNW
flow will trigger lake effect snow - initially targeting the LE
shoreline into SW NY early Thursday before before pivoting into
the NW PA snowbelts Thursday night into Friday. Several inches
of snow accumulation and significant travel disruptions are
possible Thu-Sat across the NW mtns. We added the potential wind
and lake effect snow hazards to the HWO which will likely
become key messages heading into peak Thanksgiving holiday
travel and Black Friday. Some heavier snow showers are possible
all the way down to Interstate 80 on Friday.

Models diverge over the weekend but general idea is a break in
the lake effect snow Saturday, followed by warm advection into
Sunday/Monday with potential for a deep, slow moving storm
system.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly clear skies are present across all of central
Pennsylvania this evening. Winds have begun to tapper off at the
surface, however some winds aloft remain gusty and will be cause
for some LLWS concerns for the overnight period. After 06Z winds
should calm and any LLWS concerns will diminish.

VFR conditions will prevail areawide through the TAF period as
high pressure builds in. There could be some fog in northwest PA
overnight, perhaps forming close to KBFD, but restrictions
appear unlikely at this time.

Outlook...

Mon...VFR.

Tue...Breezy with periods of rain.

Wed...Breezy with rain showers, mixing with and changing to snow
after sunset.

Thu-Fri...Breezy with SHSN for northwest PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Banghoff/Bowen