196
FXUS61 KCTP 100037
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
837 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Scattered instances of flash flooding remain possible across
  portions of York and Lancaster Counties this evening
* Continued seasonably warm and humid into mid July with daily
  chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Light to moderate rain continues this evening across the lower
Susquehanna Valley, with the heaviest of that being in Lancaster
County. This activity is right along a surface convergence
boundary separating dewpoints in the 60s to the north and low
70s to the south. Flash Flood Warnings remain in place as York
and Lancaster Counties are still reporting issues from flowing
water.

Once the rain comes to an end later this evening/early tonight,
patchy to areas of fog are likely, particularly in places that
see some clearing after earlier rainfall. Temperatures will be
in the 60s to near 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist and weakly capped
boundary layer will result in at least isolated to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms across central PA again on Thursday and Friday.
However, precipitable water values look to trend lower vs.
previous days. This will reduce the excessive rainfall and flash
flood risk while remaining sufficient to support the potential
for wet downbursts and isolated wind damage. SPC has maintained
a MRGL risk for both D2/Thu and D3/Fri. Typical mid July
summertime temperatures expected with daytime highs in the
80-90F range and lows 60-70F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Daily chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms continue over
the weekend and into early next week with max/min temps trending
near to slightly above normal for mid July. Tuesday may stand
the highest chance of being a completely dry day, but even
then, PoPs are 20-35 pct.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The threat for CB/TSRA has waned across the central PA airspace
this evening, but SHRA remain from MDT to LNS. VFR conditions
expected this evening for most of central PA, but continued rain
will likely lead to widespread MVFR visibilities closer to LNS.

The forecast for tonight gets a bit more complicated in terms of
ceilings and visibilities. High clouds should limit the
potential for radiation fog tonight, but moisture pooling as a
result of recent rains could still lead to some fog/low ceiling
potential.

At this point, the best chance for radiation fog will be BFD and
JST where at least some clearing may build in before daybreak.
Have indicated at least a period of MVFR restrictions at all
airfields tonight, but confidence remains fairly low in the
extent and duration of such impacts. The highest probability of
IFR (or perhaps lower) visibilities will be at LNS.

Outlook...

Thu...Restrictions possible in scattered PM storms.

Fri-Sat...Scattered afternoon/evening storms, mainly south.

Sun...More widespread showers/storms likely.

Mon...Still storms around.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ064>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Colbert/Guseman
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert/Guseman
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
LONG TERM...Lambert/Colbert
AVIATION...Guseman/Banghoff