559
FXUS61 KCTP 270001
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
701 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Lake effect snow may result in significant Thanksgiving
  holiday travel disruptions across northwest Pennsylvania
* Scattered snow showers and a few squalls impact the weather
  across the Central Mtns, Laurel Highlands and possibly the
  Middle Susquehanna Valley Thursday into Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Cold front pushing across has gusts >30KT with it. Expect them
to diminish (to the 20s) for just a few hours before picking up
again, esp over the Laurels. 50KT wind is as low as 2kft at JST,
so the wind advy is well-placed as gusts should be into the 40s
frequently on the ridges of the Laurels (for 24hrs). Other
locations will have gusts into the 20s and lower 30s tonight and
Thurs.

LES is also a big concern. But, we are well set-up already by
mid shift and prev shifts. No changes to the headlines/WWAs are
being made, either for the wind or snow. initial wind flow will
be taking almost all of the lake effect bands/moisture into wrn
NY, but they won`t keep it all, as a gradual veering will drop
the bands slightly to the south (into a more W-E alignment).
However, these should only nip Warren County thru sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Again, the headlines are set-up very nicely, and we foresee no
changes with this package. Have wrestled with the grids to keep
the snow accums and timing as close to previous forecasts and
neighboring offices as practicable. The slowly veering wind
across the Great Lakes will drop the LES bands even more into
the CWA, hitting BFD close to sunrise or at least by mid-
morning. The bands will then waggle throughout the next 36 hrs,
but fetch will keep the heaviest accums over the normal snow
belt of Warren county and NWrn McKean county. Deep moisture
coming off LM grabs more moisture from wrn LE and slides it into
the next tier of counties south (Elk, Cameron). The next worry
would be if a long band from LH eventually meets up with LE
water and develops at least one longer band that could extend
deep into the CWA. At this point, most models keep the large
Huron-connected band to the N of UNV through Friday sunrise.

The big take-away: Snow for PA will be most-widespread and
heaviest on Thursday night and Friday AM.

The positions and strength of snow bands on Friday (at that
range any storm, really) are difficult to nail down. There is
some disagreement on just how fast/completely the wind will
back/turn to the west and southwest and make the snow go away.
Current forecast of lower PoPs on Friday aftn is reasonable, but
we may need to delay the exit/ending of the snow for 6+ hrs.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The lake effect snow pattern comes to an end Saturday morning
as low- level flow backs and high pressure begins to build in,
resulting in a lowering subsidence inversion. There is still
some uncertainty with speed/timing, but overall guidance agrees
in bringing another round of precipitation for the area on
Sunday. Thermal profiles appear to be cold enough to initially
support snow, then perhaps mixing with or changing to rain for
the last day of November. Unsettled weather will continue into
early next week as cold air in the middle of the country sets up
a strong baroclinic zone over the eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main issue for the area overall into Friday will be gusty
winds.

Snow showers, some heavy, will be possible at times overnight
into Friday at BFD.

Some snow showers could start to work into JST toward late
Thursday afternoon, as winds shift more to the northwest
late in the day and continue into Friday.

Flurries and possible snow showers most likely will hold
off at UNV and AOO until after 00Z Friday. Less likely
to the east at IPT, but still some chance at IPT Friday.

MDT and LNS not likely to see snow showers.

Conditions will improve by Saturday, but a storm tracking
north and west of central PA on Sunday will bring a chance
of some snow and rain.Track to the west supports some rain.
Most of this would taper off by Monday.

Models show some chance for more snow and rain on Tue.

Outlook...

Fri...Windy with gusts 30-35kt from 270-300 degrees; frequent
snow showers/squalls across the NW 1/2 of the airspace.

Sat...Improving conds; diminishing winds with lingering snow
showers ending.

Sun...Light rain/wintry mix developing from west to east;
restrictions possible. Precip may turn to rain across the south
during the day.

Mon...Mixed/wintry precip likely. MVFR likely. IFR poss.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST
Saturday for PAZ004-005.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST
Saturday for PAZ006-010-011.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for PAZ017-024-025-033-
034.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Gartner/Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...Martin