905
FXUS61 KCTP 160021
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
721 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Patchy light snow will be followed by another cold night.
* A warming trend Tuesday into Thursday.
* Winds will pick up by midweek with gusts of 30 to 40 mph
  possible at times from Wednesday into Friday with fast moving
  frontal systems.
* Rain showers Thursday/Thursday night, perhaps tapering off as
  some snow early Friday, followed by colder weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Mid afternoon update.

Adjusted near term POPS and weather grids several times this
afternoon, for ongoing snow pushing further south and east than
expected earlier.

Earlier discussion below.

A weak shortwave passing to the north of PA this afternoon will
result in some patchy light snow, mainly across the north and
across the western mountains early on. Amounts should be an
inch or less.

Looking at another cold night, with temperatures below normal.
Should be a dry night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A large scale pattern shift will support a west to southwest
flow of milder air into the area by later Tuesday. The airmass
is quite dry, so not expecting any rain or snow on Tuesday.

Wednesday will be milder and mainly dry. A cold front may clip
the far north, but guidance is largely dry. Winds may gust
above 30 mph during Wed afternoon.

Winds shift back to the southwest on Thursday and become gusty
at times. Some showers later in the day, but snowpack is not
real dense, and it has been dry too, so not seeing any issues
with the amounts of rain. Highs in the 40s perhaps near 50 in
spots.

The rain could end late as some snow across the west and north.
See long term section below.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As noted above, the showers could mix with or change to some
snow, before tapering off during the morning. A few flurries
or snow showers could linger across the far west and northwest,
but most areas should clear out by mid to late morning on
Friday. Highs Friday will be back into the 30s with some lower
to mid 40s southeast.

A series of warm fronts move back to the northeast for the
weekend, so some chance of some precipitation. Some mixed
precipitation could occur, mainly across the north. Amounts
expected to be on the light side, with some spots perhaps
not getting anything.

Some variation between the GFS and EC but both have 500 mb
heights well above normal across the southern Great Plains
into the gulf area. For the northeast states, this may taper
the cycle of abnormally cold some. Harder call on the location
of precipitation as one heads out in time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The steady light snow ha moved east of the airspace with all TAF
sites returning to VFR. RH progs for the night indicate VFR or
even a cloud-free sky for much of the airspace over central PA.
BFD will be the exception where MVFR cig is anticipated. The
wind will slacken to <5kts and may even go calm in the valley
locations.

High pressure will keep flying conditions fair and VFR for all
of Tues. Another fast-moving and weak system zips through Tues
night-Wed, but most of the time will be VFR and only BFD need
worry about precip and lowered flight category.

Outlook...

Wed...MVFR cigs NW half. -SHSN VC BFD. VFR elsewhere.

Thu...Widespread SHRA occasionally reducing conditions to IFR.
May end as a brief period of snow in the west. CFROPA Thurs
night.

Fri...Gusty W wind. MVFR w/SCT SHSN NW. Mainly VFR elsewhere.

Sat...MVFR-IFR BFD in SCT -SHSN. MVFR cigs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Astronomical winter (solstice) begins at 10:03 a.m. on Sunday,
December 21st.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Martin
NEAR TERM...Martin
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Dangelo/Gartner
CLIMATE...Steinbugl