139
FXUS61 KCTP 151203
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
703 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Rain and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening; a
  strong/severe storm possible along/west of US-219
* Windy and colder with lake effect snow bands Sunday into
  Monday; changing road conditions/hazardous travel possible
* Light rain/snow possible Tuesday followed by a slightly milder
  trend through the middle of next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Stratus flowing into the Laurels is rather high-based. Dewpoint
depressions nearly double digits at this point. If it gets a
little moist-er, it could make a light shower or a few patches
of drizzle before noon. A warm front will zip across the area
during the aftn, creating a round of light rain, but perhaps
more showery than stratiform. CAPE is very thin, even in the NW.
Wind field/profile is impressive with 50+KT wind dropping as low
as 2500ft at BFD and JST in the evening. Expect anything that
tap some instability to make some gusty wind, with a small chc
of becoming severe. SPC MRGL risk remains in place. It will be
the limited CAPE that would keep things from getting more
interesting.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front dropping in from the NW will pass through BFD by
or right around 01Z, and JST-UNV-IPT by 03Z. Limited moisture
will probably keep many showers from reaching into the Lower
Susq, but some will survive that long. By midnight, the front
should be clearing the SE. Instability is possible N of I-80
and W of I-99, but more-so N of Rt 6 and W of Rte 219. So, we`ve
limited mention of TS to those locations. Air temps coming
across the lake may not become cold enough to kick the lake
effect (snow) machine on until closer to sunrise, so there will
probably be a short break for the NW before snow would become an
issue.

Prev...
Pattern turns blustery behind the cold front late Saturday
night through Sunday. Wind gusts 30-40+ mph are definitely in
the cards with potential for advisory criteria. The increasingly
strong west-northwest flow will develop across the Great Lakes
and open up the potential for lake effect/upslope snow into the
interior of CPA Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.
Specifically, a multi-lake connected snowband or bands is
trending more likely to probable based on the latest higher res
model guidance extending from Lake Superior/Huron across Erie
into northwest PA. Probabilities are at least 50/50 for advisory
level snow accum especially in more persistent NW flow
trajectory bands. There may also be an emerging signal for some
squalls or very long fetch bands perhaps extending as far
southeast as the I-81 corridor.

We were keen to message the multitude of potential hazardous
weather concerns over the weekend in ranked order of confidence
(high to low):

-strong (non-tstm) wind gusts >40mph
-lake effect snow accumulation north of I-80 & west of US-219
-heavy snow bands or squalls
-strong thunderstorm wind gusts >50 mph

With rain prior to the cold blustery winds and snow, treatment
on roads may be challenging.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Snow showers and gusty wind continue on Monday and gradually
taper off Monday night.

Models show the next system for early next week ejecting out of
the central Plains (NE/IA/KN/MO vicinity) as a flat/compact
southern stream shortwave and weak sfc low tracking eastward
through the Ohio Valley toward the DelmarVA. Ensemble data keeps
the bulk of precip and max POPs with this system along and
south of the MD line centered on next Tuesday. Any shifts in the
track or speed/timing could introduce some ptype issues on the
northern edge of the precip. That said, this system could also
skirt by far enough to the south and not bring any precip to
CPA.

High pressure edging southeast from the Great Lakes appears
deliver a dry period around midweek/Wednesday before precip
odds trend higher into the end of next week. This pattern setup
again favors a potential overrunning rain/mixed ptype scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High based stratocu and low-end altocu clouds are still present
along an elevated, albeit diffuse frontal boundary, across
Scent and Swrn PA at daybreak today, while a shield of
thickening cirrus/cirrostratus was spreading SE from the Great
Lakes and covering much of the CWA at 1130Z.

A strong, fast moving low will move down the Saint Lawrence
River Valley. Moisture will increase during the day today, with
a gusty wind developing.

Cigs will lower quickly through MVFR and into IFR range over
the Western Mtns late this morning and these low cigs (and some
periods of MVFR VSBYS in SHRA) will persist into tonight as a
potent cold front pushes east through the Commonwealth.

Cloud bases will gradually lower to MVFR across the Central Mtns
by late this morning (13-15Z) with a similar trend across the
Susq Valley this afternoon. VFR should prevail at LNS and MDT
until 22Z Sat-00Z Sun, followed by at least several hours of
MVFR CIGS.

A few light showers are possible in the morning and early
afternoon, but the majority of showers should hold off until the
late afternoon and evening along and within a few hours ahead
of the aforementioned cold front.

LLWS was included at all airfields for about a 4-5 hour period
prior to the cold frontal passage late this afternoon into this
evening, as a 45-55 kt WSWrly LLJ moves east across the state.

SFC winds will turn more gusty out of the northwest later tonight
and Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Restrictions are likely
at BFD and JST, with impacts possible farther southeast in lake
effect snow bands that take aim at any airfield.

Wind gusts out of the west-northwest will range from 35 to 45
mph late tonight and especially Sunday afternoon and evening as
the cold air deepens and moderately strong pressure rises occur.


Outlook...

Sun...SHRA/SN esp NW half. IFR poss. Windy.

Mon...Isold/SCT SHSN NW. Windy.

Tue...SHRA/SN possible early, otherwise dry.

Wed...Mainly dry.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff