808
FXUS61 KCTP 221923
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
223 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Mainly clear to partly cloudy tonight with patchy fog late
* Breezy Sunday with a couple rain/snow showers in northern PA
* Trending milder with periods of rain Tuesday-Wednesday;
  turning decidedly brisk and colder with gusty winds and lake
  effect snow Thanksgiving Day through Black Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clouds gradually fade into tonight with a light/calm wind. This
should allow for patchy fog to develop into the predawn hours
Sunday morning. With fcst temps projected to drop below 32F, we
cannot rule out pockets of freezing fog. Hires model data shows
mid clouds increasing after 06Z over NW PA along with the
potential for a couple of quick moving snow showers tracking
mainly north of I-80 into later Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
500mb trough pivots eastward across the lower Great Lakes into
the Northeast states on Sunday with a trailing frontal system
sweeping across Pennsylvania. Expect breezy conditions by
Sunday afternoon with a tightening sfc p-gradient, steepening
llvl lapse rates/CAA, and BL mixing heights supporting peak
wind gusts in the 25-35+ mph range. A couple of passing rain or
snow showers are also possible particularly near and to the
north of Interstate 80. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
common over the Alleghenies with brighter spots in the lower
Susquehanna Valley thanks to downsloping. The brisk wind will
make it feel like daytime max temps are in the 30-45F range.

High pressure builds in for Sunday night, ending rain/snow
showers in the north and relaxing the gusty wind. Good travel
conditions are expected to start Thanksgiving week with fair
and tranquil weather on Monday. Clouds begin to increase Monday
night as a milder warm advection pattern quickly shifts
downstream from Ohio Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mild trend continues through midweek with max temps peaking on
Wednesday in the 50-60F range or +10-15 degrees above the
historical average for late November.

Periods of rain are expected to move over the area Tuesday into
Wednesday. Depending on how fast precip can advance into the
retreating cold sector early Tuesday, there is a narrow window
for some mixed precip on the front-end.

Well-defined cold front will plow through the Appalachians later
Wednesday through Wednesday night. Blustery post-frontal flow is
expected to deliver much colder temperatures by Thanksgiving.
This pattern shift and below normal temperatures will trigger
lake effect snow - initially targeting the LE shoreline into SW
NY before pivoting into the NW PA snowbelts late in the week.
Several inches of snow accumulation and significant travel
disruptions are possible Thu-Sat across the NW mtns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ceilings will continue to rise through the afternoon, with all
sites expected to be VFR by 00Z Sunday. Expect patchy fog to
form overnight as winds go calm and skies clear out, though
confidence on restrictions is low. Model soundings indicate that
the best potential for any vsby restrictions will be at MDT and
LNS.

High and mid clouds increase overnight ahead of a low pressure
system tracking well to our north. A warm front associated with
this system may bring a few snow showers to BFD prior to
sunrise, but the better chance for precip appears to be along
and behind the cold front which will move through during the
late morning/early afternoon. Winds will be gusty on Sunday
afternoon, particularly west of UNV. Gusts of 20 to 30 knots
appear likely, with a few gusts as high as 35 knots possible at
JST and AOO.

Outlook...

Mon...VFR.

Tue...Breezy with periods of rain.

Wed...Breezy with rain showers, mixing with and changing to snow
after sunset.

Thu...Breezy with SHSN for northwest PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Bauco