187
FXUS61 KCTP 060031
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
831 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Periods of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are
  expected late this afternoon through Friday and again later
  this first full weekend of June
* Unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week with
  additional rounds of showers and temperatures trending near
  to slightly below the seasonal average

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
23Z/7pm Update: Large-scale severe threat across western
Pennsylvania has passed with the severe threat waning further
east this evening. Thunderstorms across Tioga County will
continue to provide the highest chances for severe winds and
hail over the next hour/two with showers and thunderstorms
beginning to fire along the Allegheny Front along an outflow
boundary. CAPE gradient remains fairly tight across southern
Centre/eastern Blair County so expect storms across south-
central PA to gradually taper down over the next two-three
hours; however, could see an isolated thunderstorm push towards
severe limits over the next hour or two given ample CAPE values
and modest shear values in the presence of ample lift.

Previous Discussion, Issued 356 EDT 06/05/2025:
We`re experiencing a mainly dry and quite warm early June
afternoon with temps in the U70s to L80s acrs the high terrain
and mid to upper 80s in the Central and Southern Valleys with
generally light wind and moderate Tds in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
These max temps are +10-15 degrees above the historical average
in most places.

SFC cold front and Lake Erie breeze have melded over the past
few hours just to the west of a KOLE to KBFD and KFKL line with
a BKN line of SHRA and a few strong to severe TSRA developing
over NW PA and SW NY.

The LLVL focus along the aforementioned cold front combined
with an area of enhanced deep layer UVVEL beneath the right/
entrance region of a 45 to 55 kt jetlet will focus the best
threat for deep convection across the NW third to half of our
CWA through 01Z before the intensity of the SHRA/TSRA slowly
wanes.

SPC upgraded the previous MRGL risk for SVR TSRA to a SLGT for
approximately the NW half of the CWA into this evening, likely
based on the factors noted above.

Although a few isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible between 22Z Thu
and 02Z Fri across the SE half of the CWA, current thinking is
that the fairly extensive mid cloud layer, broad llvl
divergence, slightly warmer mid level temps and lack of deeper
layer ascent/shear will limit POPS to 15 percent of less in that
area.

Corridor of notably higher PWs 1.2-1.5" (or +1-2 sigma anomaly-
wise) will accompany the weak cold front across the NW part of
the CWA late this afternoon/evening.

Tonight will be on the muggy/humid side with areas of fog/low
stratus and min temps 60-65F or +10-15 degrees above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned cold front will be slow-moving and continue
to trigger another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon/evening and lingering over southern PA into
Saturday.

Short term model data shows the focus for storms will shift
gradually to the southeast Fri-Sat with max POPs on Friday from
the Allegheny Plateau/Laurel Highlands into the central ridge
and valley region, before becoming focused over Southern Tier
and Lower Susq Valley on Saturday. A marginal/low risk for
isolated strong/severe wind gusts and heavy downpours will exist
primarily on Friday/D2.

An emerging model trend with the 05/00Z cycle is for a quicker
exit to the rain which affords most of CPA (particularly the NW
half or so of the CWA) a dry start to the first full weekend of
June. This appears to come at a cost with another wave of rain
now projected to expand ENE across the area Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. Daytime max temps cool off to near/below
normal on the north side of the Cfrontal Boundary Friday-Sunday
while nighttime readings remain above early June climo due to
lingering BKN-OVC cloud cover and moderately high SFC Tds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week with
rounds of showers likely as an amplified upper trough across the
Central US and Ohio Valley shears NE across the Glakes Region by
the middle of the week.

SFC and Upper level ridging over head and to our west will bring
drier conditions for much of the period Wednesday through early
Friday of next week.

Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly below the
seasonal average in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid evening update.

Adjusted TAFS across the west for an hour for storms that formed
on the ridge line just west of the UNV, AOO line.

Earlier discussion below.

A cold front over far western NY and NE Ohio late this afternoon
has resulted in storms over the far northwest (BFD) late this
aft. Further east and south showers have formed but died
quickly. Extensive mid level clouds to the east and south, with
limited heating.

Thus expect activity to weaken some as it moves eastward this
evening. Main issue overnight and early Friday will be lower
CIGS across the north, behind the cold front. Some fog will be
possible at times at any of our sites later tonight.

The cold front will be slow to work south of the PA, MD line.
It may be late Saturday until the front sags south of the area.

Rounds of showers and some storms will be around the area
Friday into Saturday. Perhaps a small window for drier
conditions on Sunday.

Outlook...

Fri...Numerous SHRA/TSRA, esp Central and NW in the afternoon
and evening. Brief reductions to MVFR and IFR in the TSRA.

Sat...Showers/PM TSRA continue, mainly confined to the southern
third of PA. Precip chances gradually tapering off across the NW
half to 2/3rds of PA late morning into the afternoon.

Sun...VFR/no sig wx expected.

Mon...Showers and storms, especially late across the north and
west.

Tue...Showers/PM TSRA

&&

.CLIMATE...
The high temperature at Altoona reached 89 degrees at 2:22pm on
June 4th. This broke the record of 86 degrees set back in 1971
and 2024.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/NPB
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Gartner
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Martin