058
FXUS61 KCTP 041706
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1206 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Arctic cold front moves southeast through Central and Southern
  PA through the mid afternoon hours bringing snow showers and
  brief squalls across mainly the northern half of the state.
  The light snow accumulation and gusty winds could lead to
  localized travel impacts across Central and Northern PA.
* Plummeting temperatures later this afternoon and tonight
  with near record lows Friday morning
* Reinforcing cold pattern locks in below average temperatures
  through the second week of December

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold front near a KBGM to KUNV and KPIT line at 1630Z and
accompanied by a narrow line of mdt to briefly heavy snow
showers/squalls.

High res model members maintain the integrity of this brief,
narrow line of convection into South-Central PA into the late
afternoon while slowly breaking it up then completely fizzling
it out by 22Z. Issued 3 SQWs so far to notify PennDOT/PSP
partners and travelers along the I-80 corridor in West Central
PA. May need 1 or 2 more shortly before the line of SHSN
weakens.

As the cold air rushes in, the 8H temps drop to around -17C in
the N by sunset which is about 10C colder than right now (3 AM
EST). Wind will gust into the 30s on the higher hills during
the day and also along the cfropa.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The wind lowers quickly in the first part of the night, and some
places may be calm by morning as high pressure slides overhead.
The light wind and clearing sky will allow temps to drop
precipitously. Low temps Fri AM will be in the single digits
across the Alleghenies and Laurels. See the Climate section
below for current records for the 5th of Dec.

There is a wave rolling to our south on Friday that will
attempt to drop a (literal) few snowflakes on the srn tier. No
accums are expected, and most people will not see any flurries.
Have left in an obligatory 20 PoP roughly S of the Turnpike.
Maxes should not quite get to 32F even in the warmer locations
thanks to the arctic air and clouds streaming overhead from the
near-miss wave to our south - despite a light southerly sfc
wind. WAA late in the day and Friday night should keep temps
8-18F milder than the previous night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Series of reinforcing shortwaves offer opportunities for snow
late in the weekend and early next week; however the main theme
in the long term will be the cold pattern with below normal
temps expected to last through the second week of December.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main issue for today will be the passage of a strong cold
front. This will bring the potential for breifly heavy snow
showers as far south as KIPT, KUNV and KAOO between 18-20Z

The cold air and low level moisture is not real deep, but the
airmass behind the front is abnormally cold, which has the
potential to compensate by providing low level instability.
There is also some potential for marginal LLWS right ahead of
the cold FROPA, but in general the shear will be dissipated by
mechanical mixing via wind gusts.

The weather for Friday into Monday will feature weather systems
to the southeast and northwest of our area, so while low CIGS
and snow showers may prevail at times, not seeing any big storms
at this point.

Outlook...

Fri...Cold start to the day with temps 0-15F. Slight chance of
light snow across the southern half of central PA with
restrictions possible.

Sat-Mon...Restrictions possible, chance of snow showers in the
NW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Cold temperatures in the wake of the Arctic Front will bring
frigid temperatures to central Pennsylvania, the coldest of this
winter thus far. Multiple locations across the area will be
challenging record low temperatures on December 5th:

Location|Record
Harrisburg | 12 (1926)
Williamsport |   8 (1926)
Bradford | 0 (2007)
Altoona | 13 (1966)

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner/Colbert
CLIMATE...NPB