234
FXUS61 KCTP 190925
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
425 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
*Rain and wet/slushy snow ends early this morning and gives way
 to mostly cloudy conditions through Thursday
*Occasional rain Friday and Friday night precedes a dry and
 seasonably mild back half/end to the weekend
*Mild weather continues early next week before a significant
 cold pattern shift likely by the end of Thanksgiving week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Band of rain/snow will pivot eastward across CPA early this
morning. Thermal profiles have sufficiently cooled via wet bulb
effects to produce steady light to moderate snow either side of
the I-80 corridor with webcams indicating a slushy accumulation
on roadways. Snow amounts may exceed 1" on grassy/non-paved and
elevated surfaces particularly over the higher terrain of the
interior central mtns into the Coal region. SPS was issued to
account for potential travel impacts on slick/slushy roads
through the predawn and early morning commute.

Some areas of fog/mist/dz/fzdz could last into mid morning over
the Laurel Highlands. Precip ends/exits the LSV shortly after
12Z with partly to mostly cloudy conditions expected for the
rest of today through tonight. The cloud cover may reduce/prop-
up max/min temps by a few degrees with day/nighttime readings
slightly below/above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will provide mainly dry weather for most of
Thursday, but lingering low level moisture will keep clouds in
place for most of CPA. We would not rule out some pockets of
light rain or drizzle/fog across the Laurel Highlands later in
the day. Models show an increasing chance for light rain
spreading west to east Thursday night through Friday night.
Occasional rain signal likely peaks Friday night into early
Saturday morning based on blended model QPF followed by a north
to south drying trend into Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Odds for rain decrease from north to south on Saturday with
high confidence in a dry end to the weekend (Saturday night
through Sunday). Seasonably mild conditions continue through
early next week with timing of next round of rain still
uncertain (probably sometime in the Tuesday to Wednesday window).
The key message for next week will be the significant pattern
shift to colder weather projected to unfold after Thanksgiving.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak surface low pressure near KDCA with an inverted trough
extending north into Central PA was being supported by a potent
albeit compact upper level short wave moving across SW/Scent PA
at 07Z.

Wet Bulb Zero C temps are under 1000 ft AGL across the Bulk of
Central PA (with the exception of far southern PA, the Laurel
Highlands and West Central Mtns. Significant bright banding
shows large water-coated snowflakes making it to the ground now
at KUNV and we expect the precip type to be mainly snow between
08-11Z (after about an hour of initial light rain 07-08Z) at
KIPT, KAOO and KSEG.

Conditions during this 2-3 hour burst of MDT intensity precip
will be mainly IFR to low-end MVFR Vsbys and IFR CIGS.

Precip Type at KMDT and KLNS should be mainly rain with a
little wet snow possibly mixed in between 09-12Z today.

After the rain/snow moves out of the area between 12-13Z today
there will still likely be some IFR ceiling restrictions around
through most of the late morning. Some gradual improvement is
expected by late Wednesday morning/early afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Partial improvement in
conditions, but some lingering restrictions possible due to
lower clouds.

Friday through Saturday...Rain and associated restrictions
likely.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner