825
FXUS61 KCTP 241807
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
207 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Cooler than average holiday weekend with a brisk breeze and
  spotty showers giving way to more sunshine and marginally
  warmer temperatures by Memorial Day.
* Periods of rain return later Tuesday and persist through the
  end of next week; Wednesday looks like the coolest day.
* Although temperatures should moderate into the end of May,
  there are no signs of a substantial summertime warmup as the
  calendar flips to June.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Considerable cloudiness will persist late this afternoon, with
scattered rain showers continuing to drift southeastward across
the area. The highest PoPs this afternoon are along and north
of the I-80 corridor, but a few showers will slip farther to the
south, and even the Lower Susq Valley could see a brief shower
before the day is over.

It will remain breezy, with gusts of 20-30 mph expected. Clouds
and cool 850hPa temps will high temps 10 to 20 degrees below
the historical average...holding in the 50-65F range from north
to south.

Weak upper-level ridging favors a drier period and decreasing
clouds for tonight. Winds will gradually diminish this evening,
with min temps generally ranging from 40-45F (about 5-10F below
late May climo.)

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A fairly robust trailing shortwave trough will slip southeastward
from the Great Lakes across the northern Mid Atlantic states on
Sunday. This moisture starved feature should help to trigger
another round of scattered rain showers across CPA, with an
uptick in coverage coincident with the peak daytime heating.
Moisture will be limited, so we don`t expect anything more than
perhaps a tenth of an inch of rainfall. The highest PoPs will be
across the northern mountains.

Building high pressure should finally bring and end to the rain
showers Sunday night into Monday. Any clearing could provide
some downside risk to minimum temps and possibly result in
patchy frost over the western highlands with lows currently fcst
in the upper 30s to near 40F.

Monday continues too look like the pick of the holiday weekend,
as max temperatures tick a bit higher into the 65-75F range.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will pass east of the region on Tuesday, with
clouds increasing ahead of a sfc low that will begin tracking
up the Ohio Valley Tues night. High temps Tuesday will generally
be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, although they may hold in the
low to mid 60s across the Laurel Highlands where the clouds will
thicken the soonest.

A similar pattern to what we had this past week will develop
again by Wednesday, with another round of cooler and damp
weather. Models highlight another phasing/amplifying upper
trough developing over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes, and
digging southeastward into the Ohio Valley and the Mid Atlantic
region for the mid to late week.

So, it appears our relatively cool and damp pattern will
continue into the end of May, with no signs of true summerlike
weather on the horizon through the beginning of meteorological
summer on June 1.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Gusty winds and scattered showers will prevail into early
this evening. A wide range in CIGS, IFR and MVFR conditions
across the mountains, to VFR conditions at MDT and LNS.

Held onto low CIGS into Sunday morning across the mountains.
I did not go with any showers for Sunday, but winds will kick
back up after sunrise, given the abnormally cold air aloft.

Sunday night into early Tuesday should feature lighter winds,
dry weather and VFR conditions across the entire area, as
high pressure builds over the area.

Outlook...

Mon...Dry with VFR conditions.

Tue PM-Thu...Lowering/thickening clouds with widespread showers
expected again.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Evanego
NEAR TERM...Evanego
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Evanego
LONG TERM...Evanego
AVIATION...Martin