719
FXUS61 KCTP 071920
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
320 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Unseasonably cold start to the week in chilly pattern for the
  second week of April
* Increasingly windy tonight into Tuesday with snow showers
  downwind of Lake Erie over the Allegheny Mountains
* Brief dry spell later Tuesday into Wednesday with periods of
  light rain returning for late week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cloudy and chilly late afternoon and evening expected from the
central ridges through the Susquehanna Valley with some
lingering pockets of light rain/drizzle and fog/mist. Meanwhile,
clearing slot extending from the Ohio Valley across northwest
PA is providing a decent afternoon in the NW zones with sunshine
and temps in the mid 40s.

Fairly potent shortwave pivoting over the Great Lakes will send
a strong, but moisture challenged cold front through the region
tonight. Gusty snow showers are likely as the front crosses the
Allegheny Plateau. We still can`t rule out a few locally heavier
snow showers especially over the higher terrain, but the timing
in the 00-06Z window will offer less instability and limited
overall moisture/downsloping favors limited to localized impacts
at best.

Moisture in the wake of the front will become relatively
shallow, but the cold NW flow and descending DGZ will likely
continue lake enhanced/orographic snow showers and flurries
going into early Tuesday morning. Snow accumulation <1 inch is
most likely in the snow belts and ridgetops/summits near and to
the west of US219. Min temps in the 20-30F range will be 5 to 10
degrees below climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Unseasonably cold air works in behind the cold front, with
daytime max temps generally fcst in the 30-40F range. Max
temperature departures will be 15 to 30 degrees below the
historical average and some sites will be within 5F of daily
record lowest hi temps. Tuesday will be the coldest day of the
week and perhaps the coldest day until next Fall. A few snow
showers will linger through midday over the Alleghenies before
subsidence increases and brings snow showers to an end by the
afternoon.

Conditions will turn increasingly windy from Monday night
through Tuesday afternoon with peak gusts 30-40 mph from the
WNW. Gusty winds during the day on Tuesday will make it feel
like winter with max apparent temperatures in the 15-30F range.
Downslope flow will promote decreasing clouds southeast of the
Allegheny Front (east of I-99 and south of I-80) Tuesday
afternoon.

Clearing skies and lighter winds expected Tuesday night with
widespread frost freeze potential. While the growing season does
not officially begin until the weekend for the lower Susquehanna
Valley, we added mention of frost across the entire area to
highlight risk to any early season/cold-sensitive vegetation.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry weather is expected on Wednesday as high pressure drifts
eastward over Pennsylvania, though the dry weather will be
short-lived as most guidance shows a shortwave approaching from
the west Wednesday night. Precipitation will overspread the
region from west to east into early Thursday morning as a warm
front lifts north towards the region ahead of the surface low.
While most of the precip will fall as rain, ensemble 850 mb
temps just below freezing could allow for a few wet snowflakes
to mix in across the northern mountains through the morning.

Upper level troughing behind this system will keep rain chances
around into the first half of the weekend, but there is
considerable spread in the ensemble members as to the timing
and placement of individual shortwaves moving through the
trough. The trough will eventually be replaced by upper level
ridging which will bring drier weather back for Sunday.
High temperatures through the extended period will generally
range from the 40s and low 50s over the northern and western
mountains, to the upper 50s and low 60s over the southeast.

Late season frost and freeze concerns will return late in the
period, particularly Sunday night, as high pressure at the
surface and aloft will allow temperatures to fall into the low
to mid 30s under mainly clear skies with light winds.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR to LIFR cigs late this afternoon and evening will improve
tonight as a cold front sweeps through the airspace. MVFR cigs
are likely to persist at KBFD/JST with brief IFR possible in
snow showers. Look for MVFR/IFR cigs to improve to MVFR and then
VFR downwind of the Allegheny mtns thanks to an increasingly
gusty NW flow. Low level mechanical turbulence during takeoff
and FAP is probable from late tonight through Tuesday due to
gusty winds from 280-320 degrees.

Outlook...

Tue...MVFR/IFR likely in the NW Mtns with snow showers ending by
the afternoon. Sfc wind gusts 30-35kt from 280-320 degrees
subsiding into Tuesday night.

Wed...No sig wx/VFR conditions expected.

Thu...Rain spreads west to east; sub-VFR likely.

Fri-Sat...Periods of rain with sub-VFR likely.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Bauco
AVIATION...Steinbugl