450
FXUS61 KCTP 140416
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1116 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Mainly clear, cooler, and not as windy tonight; slightly
  milder and dry end to the week on Friday
* Clouds increase with periods of rain Saturday afternoon into
  Saturday night; a gusty thunderstorm is possible
* Windy and colder with lake effect snow showers Sunday into
  Monday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A few clouds linger across the CWA this evening into tonight on
the southwestern periphery of a departing upper level trough.
Otherwise look for mainly clear skies and decreasing wind as
high pressure ridge settles into southwest PA by 12Z Friday.
Fcst minimum temps are pretty close to seasonal climo in the
25-35F range, which is 5 to 15 degrees cooler than last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A bit milder, dry and not as windy end to the week on Friday.
Max/min temps remain close to the historical average for mid
November in the 40-55F/25-35F range. Model guidance appears to
be signaling more cloud cover/less sunshine during the day.

Warm advection pattern picks up Friday night through Saturday
downstream of amplifying large-scale upper trough tracking
southeast from the Canadian Prairies across the Great Lakes
towards the Northeast through Saturday night. Deepening sfc low
moving from the U.P. of MI up the St. Lawrence River Valley
will drag a trailing warm/cold frontal system through CPA
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night accompanied by periods
of rain. A favorable zone for a few t-storms (warm sector) capable
of locally strong/severe wind gusts may exist from the Upper
Ohio Valley into the western slopes of the Allegheny Mtns late
Saturday afternoon into  Saturday evening -- before convection
weakens while crossing the higher terrain through central and
eastern PA Saturday night. SPC trimmed back the MRGL SWO
primarily to the west of the PBZ/CTP border, but will allow the
night shift to adjust HWO with tomorrow`s Day 2 SWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday into Monday period looks quite windy and colder with
brisk and blustery NW flow. Max gusts via NBM are currently in
the 30-40 mph range and could see a wind advisory being needed
in the coming days. The typical cold season post-frontal
pattern transition will be punctuated by a ramp up of
lake effect snow showers with potential for snow accumulation
in the favored snowbelts, ridgetops and summits along the
Allegheny Plateau.

Models show the next system for early next week ejecting out of
the central Plains (NE/IA/KN/MO vicinity) as a flat/compact
southern stream shortwave and weak sfc low tracking eastward
through the Ohio Valley toward the DelmarVA. Ensemble data keeps
the bulk of precip and max POPs with this system along and
south of the MD line centered on next Tuesday. Any shifts in the
track or speed/timing could introduce some ptype issues on the
northern edge of the precip. That said, this system could also
skirt by far enough to the south and not bring any precip.

High pressure edging southeast from the Great Lakes appears
deliver a dry period around midweek/Wednesday before precip
odds trend higher into the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC and satellite observations indicate clear/clearing skies as
high pressure begins to build into the airspace from the
southwest. VFR conditions are expected overnight for all TAF
sites, but BFD. BFD is running an MVFR ceiling and reporting UP
in recent SFC ob from residual lake effect. Winds there remain
moderate and gusty from the northwest and guidance suggests it
will be a few more hours until wind speeds diminish.

Elsewhere, winds will continue to diminish into the late
evening/overnight. There is low potential for LLWS this evening
as surface wind gusts drop off, but model soundings from the RAP
and HRRR suggest that the strongest winds will remain above
2000 feet.

Friday will feature VFR conditions with lighter winds than we
have seen the past few days.

Outlook...

Sat...Afternoon SHRA.

Sun...SHRA/SN esp NW half. IFR poss. Breezy.

Mon...Isold/SCT SHSN NW. Breezy.

Tue...SHRA/SN possible early, transitioning to RA. Restrictions
possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Gartner/Bauco