460
FXUS61 KCTP 040005
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
805 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Scattered storms late this afternoon and very early evening as
  a cold front moves through. Some may be accompanied by strong
  gusty winds and hail.
* Drier/less humid/more comfortable conditions are likely for
  Independence Day.
* Trending warmer and more humid but rain-free this weekend
* Hot and unsettled weather returns next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Surface cold front extended from the Finger Lakes of NY to NW PA
at 19Z. Isolated to SCT TSRA developed over the past few hours
and are moving rather quickly to the ESE at 35 to 40 mph.

Plenty of morning sunshine has allowed sfc based CAPE to grow
to around 2000 J/KG across much of the CWA, just ahead of the
cold front.

The left exit region of the Glakes Jet max will brush across
the NE third to half of the CWA late this afternoon and early
this evening, interacting with the approaching sfc cold
front/Lake Erie Breeze and accentuating UVVEL for some fast,
southeast- moving discrete TSRA (Supercells and mini-bows)
capable of producing localized 60-70 mph downburst gusts and a
few instances of quarter sized hail. Strong low level storm
relative inflow and slightly curved 0-3 KM hodographs along
relatively cool mid level temps and a Wet Bulb Zero level of
about 9 KFT AGl supports the threat for large hail.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #484 is in effect for the NE quarter
of the CWA until 02Z, but since we`re at the western edge of
this watch area, the effective time for it in our CWA should be
through about 22-23Z.

Some lingering SHRA (and maybe a brief, low-topped TSRA will
last until just after sunset in the SE, but it`s only worth a
15-20 PoP for isolated coverage. After the front passes, which
will be early this evening in the S, the air will dry out
substantially with sfc dewpoints into the 50s by sunrise
Friday (likely to between 45 and 50F over the Northern Mtns with
PWAT values across the north dipping to under 0.50 of an inch).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday looks like a stellar Independence Day.

No risk of any precip, and humidity dipping to bone dry levels
in the afternoon. Will continue to deviate to the low side from
the NBM dewpoints for Fri and Sat afternoons, with Friday being
the largest diff in Td.

Light N wind and plenty of sunshine Fri. Very dry air just
above the sfc in the AM and mixing to ~5kft in the aftn could
drop dewpoints into the 40s across the Allegheny Plateau and
M50s in the SE. That may not be enough of a move, but will start
with that.

High temps Friday in the U70s to M80s are very seasonable, and
we`ll probably see temps a few deg F higher Sat aftn.

High pressure building SE over the Commonwealth will provide
dry conditions for both days.

Patchy 1/2SM fog will develop in the valleys of Central and
Northern PA since temps dip close to 50F in the nrn mtns Fri
AM with air/water delta Ts exceeding 20F in some places.
However, the dry airmass will work against more widespread fog
formation.

Dewpoints are going to be low enough on Sat AM that there won`t
be much, if any, fog. Then, the wind turns Swrly, and humidity
levels start to creep upward during the long holiday weekend,
but no rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Most of the day Sunday looks hot and mostly sunny with highs in
the upper 80s. PoPs increase into Monday and Tuesday as a
trough arrives and taps into some tropical moisture off the
East Coast. Very warm weather will continue on Monday with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Temps will fall a few degrees into
Tue. PoPs drop into the 20-40 pct range on Wed as heights
briefly rise over the area, before the PoPs rise again Thursday
with the approach of another shortwave trough.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z TAFS sent.

A bit of a breeze outside, but expect winds to quickly die
off after sunset here shortly.

Still some chance of a shower or storm at MDT and LNS for
a brief time, but the activity should be east of that area
region by around 9 PM.

Otherwise great weather overnight into the upcoming holiday
weekend, as high pressure build into the area with rather dry
air to start with for early July. Often the 4th of July can
be active with thunderstorms.

The potential for fog overnight is low, given most of the
area did not get rain today and now the drier air is working
into the area.

Outlook...

Sat-Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR.

Mon-Tue...Potential for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Colbert
AVIATION...Martin