906
FXUS61 KCTP 120743
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
343 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Periods of rain into Monday night, mainly for the eastern half
  of the CWA
* Becoming breezy in southeast PA
* High pressure brings cooler and dry weather for the rest of
  the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
One band of rain is crossing the CWA and has made 2/3rds of the
CWA wet already. It should continue moving westward and make the
western mountains wet, too. However, the next wave of forcing
to drive organized rainfall/showers will have a big gap for most
of the day today. Light rain may push in from the east again
later today, but hardly reach I-99 before falling apart. There
won`t be many breaks in the clouds, the temps will be rather
flat through the day, only getting into the 60-65F range in
most places. Hill tops and the far SE will be closer to 60F
while Warren Co with it`s corner on sunshine today could take a
run at 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The double-barrel upper low over the eastern states will
gradually merge into one, broad upper low/trough. The coastal
low position and strength is dependent on the eventual upper
pattern. That solution is still rather uncertain, especially
considering the short-range/time-horizon. Despite this
uncertainty, there aren`t many implications for our CWA from any
solution out there now. Light to moderate rain at times in the
east, and perhaps no more rain for our western tier of counties.
While the storm total QPF in the 1-1.25" range over the east
means little to the streams and rivers. None of it will be heavy
enough to cause any problems. But, I am sure it is all very
welcome to the parched earth of Central PA. The bad things is
that the most-dry section of our CWA (the W, esp the NW) is
going to pick up very little rain (maybe less than a tenth of an
inch) from this lingering/long-duration storm along/off the
coast. Temps remain mild tonight, but get a bit chillier on
Monday with more moisture overhead and falling from the sky vs
Sunday. The Poconos/Endless Mountains of the NE could stay in
the lower 50s. Warren Co will be the hottest place in the CWA
once again. Highs there may again be close to 70F. The rain is
progged to be a little faster to end on Monday night, and is no
longer expected to last into Tuesday. Chance (30-40) PoPs will
be confined to places east of the Susq Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry until Day 7. While there is a colder airmass moving down
from Canada in the middle of the week, the front/leading edge of
the it will have almost no moisture to lift and squeeze out as
rain. If there is a sprinkle or two on Tues night, it would be
along the NY border. The dryness will peak on Thursday with
dewpoints only 25-35F in the aftn. The wind could be fast/gusty
enough to create a worry for our fire-weather sensitive
partners. But, we`ll have a few days to look into those
conditions. It will also be dry/clear enough to cause
frost/freeze conditions for the SE, mainly on Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A tricky forecast is in store for the next 24 hours given the
complexity of the of the two converging systems over central
PA. The short wave from today is still providing enough lift to
promote rain development over northern Pennsylvania. Rain is
expected to continue over northern air sites for the next few
hours 00-04Z before a break during the early morning hours. The
second system, which is the slow moving coastal low that has
been mentioned during the last few TAF packages, continues to
move north along the Mid-Atlantic coast. We expect to see
deteriorating cigs and vsby with widespread restrictions
overnight as low level moisture increases from this low. By 06z
Sun, the chance for IFR conditions approaches 60-70% for most
airfields. Low level wind shear from a strengthening east-
southeasterly low level jet will develop late Sat night across
the Susq Valley and points east.

A break in the rain is expected Sunday morning, but cigs are not
likely to improve above MVFR due to the moisture influence from
the southeast keeping cloud ceilings low. As the low progresses
northward rain coverage will begin expanding from the southeast
towards the northwest. The Lower Susquehanna Valley could see
prolonged rain beginning as early as 18Z, and rain will likely
persist well into Monday morning.

Outlook...

Sun...Rain mainly for central and eastern airfields. Widespread
IFR Cigs and MVFR VSBYS with areas of LIFR possible. Some
improvement late possible in the NW. NE wind gusts of 20-30 kts
possible in the southeast.

Mon...Still breezy in NE flow with rain chances continuing
across the east.

Tue...A little less breezy as the wind switches to North and
skies begin to clear.

Wed...A chance for restrictions mainly early/north with cold
front, otherwise VFR.

Thu...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Colbert/Bowen