844
FXUS61 KCTP 261054
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
654 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend,
  although it should not be a wash-out.
* It will remain muggy, with heat building again early next week
  before an appreciable cooldown arrives for the beginning of
  August.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Spotty fog and low clouds across central PA will dissipate as
the morning progresses.

At the same time, showers with some embedded thunder associated
with a weak shortwave will push into western Pennsylvania from
Ohio this morning. Some short-range models project a general
downward trend for this activity this morning, while other
maintain this activity and show it serving as a focus for
additional activity to develop as the day progresses.

Regardless, diurnal heating combined with a quasi-stationary
boundary draped across the commonwealth should serve to
reinvigorate showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. WPC has
is projecting a Slight risk (2 out of 5) of flash flooding
across much of central PA today. Meanwhile, SPC projects a
Marginal risk (1 out of 5) for strong storms across the
southwestern half of PA, with the primary threat being from
isolated damaging winds.

It will be a warm and muggy day, although the increased cloud
cover should hold highs in the 80s for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
After another warm and muggy overnight, Sunday will be a near
repeat of today with diurnally-enhanced showers and
thunderstorms. If anything, Sunday could feature slightly
higher PoPs than today.

Both SPC and WPC paint a Marginal threat for severe/flash
flooding across primarily the southeastern two-thirds of
Pennsylvania on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Consistent model projections build heat and humidity again early
next week across PA, before an amplified wave in the polar jet
stream finally helps drive a more notable surface cool front
southward through PA for the mid-week period.

We`ll continue to monitor the heat risk potential in the
Monday-Tuesday timeframe. At least scattered showers and
thunderstorms should accompany the above mentioned cool front
Wednesday into Thursday. By Thursday and Friday, we`re looking
at daily highs back into the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some valley fog and low clouds outside the office trying to
lift up now, as the sun is out now. Expect a lot of variation
over the next several hours, before any fog and low clouds is
gone by mid to late morning.

As was the case on Friday, expect some showers and storms
from early afternoon into this early this evening. Expect
a similar day on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sat-Sun...Mainly dry, not as hot, with isolated to scattered
TSRA and brief restrictions possible each afternoon/evening.

Mon-Tue...VFR.

Wed...Scattered PM TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high temperature of 87 degrees was tied at Bradford
Thursday. This ties the record set back in 2001.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Evanego
NEAR TERM...Evanego
SHORT TERM...Evanego
LONG TERM...Jurewicz
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...NPB