088
FXUS61 KCTP 021049
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
649 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Increased clouds through the morning across the Northwest
  Mountains and introduced a 20-30 POP for snow showers there as
  a spoke of a cold pool aloft moves into NW PA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool and unsettled pattern continues this weekend with a
frost/freeze risk early today across Central and Northern PA and
again tonight and early Sunday across a larger area in Central
and Southern PA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Cool and unsettled pattern continues this weekend
with a frost/freeze risk early today across Central and
Northern PA and again tonight and early Sunday across a larger
area in Central and Southern PA.

Several spokes of energy rotating around a broad, slow-moving
upper level closed low centered over Ontario and Quebec will
lead to variable amounts of clouds and a low probability for
rain and snow showers, primarily across the NW Mtns of PA
today.

Introduced the 20-30 POP for -SHSN across the NW Mtns this
morning as RAP Guidance shows 0.5 KM Wet bulb temps of -3 to -5C
there at 08Z Sat.

This pattern will bring variable amounts of clouds and scattered
late morning/afternoon sprinkles over roughly the NW half of the
state.

Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories that are currently in
effect through 13Z today across Central and NW Pa will almost
certainly be issued again for tonight/early Sunday and expanded
to the SE into the Lower Susq Valley and Western Poconos as we
expect to see the lowest temperatures of this current cool
spell.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the southeastward
extent of frost as there will be a rather tight pressure
gradient across the region due to a developing area of low
pressure off of the coast.

Temperatures will be trending warmer for the beginning of the
week, but all guidance indicates that unsettled weather will
continue with multiple chances for rain next week, with the
highest PoPs Wed- Thu. Latest guidance also suggests a potential
return of frost/freeze conditions by Thursday and Friday
nights.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail across much of central Pennsylvania this
morning with some MVFR ceilings across far southeastern
Pennsylvania (LNS) as of 10Z observations. All model guidance
points towards improvement towards VFR conditions by 12Z
Saturday with widespread VFR flight conditions expected
throughout much of the 12Z TAF package. Main concern for
restrictions will come with respect to scattered rain shower
coverage across portions of central Pennsylvania, mainly in the
18Z Saturday to 00Z Sunday timeframe. Recent hi-res guidance
continues to point best chances towards BFD/JST/IPT/UNV today;
however, have limited mentions to only JST where HREF outlines
slightly higher probabilities for precipitation. These chances
still barely eclipse ~30%, thus utilizing a PROB30 group is the
best opening offer for the 12Z TAF package, but still would
caution quick ceiling drop potential in shower mentions in the
near-term at BFD, along with UNV/IPT in the 18Z-22Z window. Some
signals exist for clearing after sunset based on GLAMP
guidance, thus have started to hint towards widespread VFR
(potentially with SKC) conditions towards the end of the TAF
package at all airfields outside of BFD where lingering low-
level moisture promotes low-level cloud deck mentions.

Outlook...

Sun...SHRA moves in late; otherwise, VFR expected.

Mon...SHRA potential increases during PM hours, some TSRA
possible across N/W PA. Restrictions possible.

Tue...SHRA becomes more widespread, TSRA chances expand across
much of central PA. Restrictions possible.

Wed...Scattered SHRA remain. Restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-041-042-045-046-049-050-056.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Colbert/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...Beaty