983
FXUS61 KCTP 141805
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
105 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* High pressure makes a fair day with normal temps.
* Clouds increase with periods of rain Saturday afternoon into
  Saturday night; a gusty thunderstorm is possible
* Windy and colder with lake effect snow showers Sunday into
  Monday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLouds over the NE should slide E around sunrise. Some fog in
the valleys of the NW will linger til 9 AM. Axis of high
pressure should be over the CWA today, and warm advection should
start later in the day. Fair wx results. A streak of mid-high
clouds will dim the sun, but max temps won`t be far from
normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Warmer air flows in aloft tonight Laurels may not drop below
40F. It stays pretty cloudy and the upslope into the Laurels
may cause a little drizzle there. A little fog may form again in
the NW, but clouds may thwart it. Lift increases through the
morning and early afternoon, bringing rain/showers into the wrn
mtns. NAM makes some instability over the west, too, mainly
after 00Z. SPC has placed the far W into a MRGL risk of svr for
late Sat-Sat night. Temps rise 10F above Friday`s numbers. 55KT
LLJet pushes in from the W as a good short wave trough drops
across the Upper Great Lakes. CFRONT pushes through in the
night, wind goes NW and temps get cold enough to turn lake
effect rain showers to a mix or straight up snow by morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday into Monday period looks quite windy and colder with
brisk and blustery NW flow. Max gusts via NBM are currently in
the 30-40 mph range and could see a wind advisory being needed
in the coming days. The typical cold season post-frontal
pattern transition will be punctuated by a ramp up of
lake effect snow showers with potential for snow accumulation
in the favored snowbelts, ridgetops and summits along the
Allegheny Plateau.

Models show the next system for early next week ejecting out of
the central Plains (NE/IA/KN/MO vicinity) as a flat/compact
southern stream shortwave and weak sfc low tracking eastward
through the Ohio Valley toward the DelmarVA. Ensemble data keeps
the bulk of precip and max POPs with this system along and
south of the MD line centered on next Tuesday. Any shifts in the
track or speed/timing could introduce some ptype issues on the
northern edge of the precip. That said, this system could also
skirt by far enough to the south and not bring any precip.

High pressure edging southeast from the Great Lakes appears
deliver a dry period around midweek/Wednesday before precip
odds trend higher into the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Aside from a few drops of rain this afternoon from a mid level
deck, still looking at dry weather for the most part across the
area with VFR conditions.

I did edge winds up some this afternoon, as we are on the
western edge of a deep upper level low over eastern Canada.

For tonight, some clearing but not expecting much in the way
of fog or low clouds. A strong, fast moving low will move down
the Saint Lawrence River Valley on Saturday. Moisture will
increase during the day, with a gusty wind developing. I did
lower CIGS on Saturday, but a shade less and slower than the
guidance had it occurring. Showers mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours.

The weather early Sunday into late Monday will feature another
round of windy and cold conditions with lake effect and upslope
snow showers, much like we had back on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Sun...SHRA/SN esp NW half. IFR poss. Windy.

Mon...Isold/SCT SHSN NW. Windy.

Tue...SHRA/SN possible early, otherwise dry.

Wed...Mainly dry.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Colbert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Martin