557
FXUS61 KCTP 180201
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
901 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Blustery conditions areawide and snow flurries in the northern
  tier this evening will give way to tranquil conditions later
  tonight
* Light rain/snow possible Tuesday into Tuesday night followed
  by a slightly milder trend through late week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Isolated snow flurries will continue to taper off this evening,
as the inversion height lowers. With high pressure building in,
winds will continue to decrease, becoming less than 5 kts on
average by daybreak. Upper level cirrus will begin to increase
prior to sunrise ahead of the next weather system moving across
the Midwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fast moving mid and upper level trough will move from the
Midwest through the Mid Atlantic Tuesday into early Wednesday.
The surface low will be weakening quite a bit as the system
moves east. Nonetheless, some light precip is expected in a warm
advection regime ahead of the surface low. Most of the guidance
show the heaviest QPF mainly south of the PA border. Timing is
such that most of the precipitation should be in the form of
rain. When the surface is cold enough for freezing rain, the
lower portion of the atmosphere looks too dry for much precip,
and then when the low levels do moisten up the ground will have
warmed. Any freezing rain early Tue would be confined to the
coldest spots in the Laurels, but chances are too low to warrant
an advisory. Rainfall amounts are progged to range from
0.25-0.50 inch across the southern tier, to just a few
hundredths of an inch of rain north of Interstate 80.

High pressure becomes the dominant feature again for Wed. Most
if not all of Wed and Thu look dry at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An active northern stream jet stream will push the next frontal
system toward the area on Friday. Friday should be on the mild
side, with highs in the 50s to near 60. Rain is likely with the
passage of a cold front later Friday or early Saturday. While
the front could clear things out for the later part of the
weekend, there is a risk of the front slowing down and stalling.
If enough cold air was to get advected southward at low levels,
then one could see mixed precip late Sat/Sun, but for now
keeping PoPs less than 40 pct. PoPs remain on the low side on
Monday as high pressure dominates.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will continue to occur over the NW
corner of the central PA airspace through the late afternoon/early
evening, though coverage and intensity are on a downward trend.
Any effects on airfields should be confined to BFD from this
point forward, with periods of IFR or LIFR visibilities (and
mainly MVFR ceilings).

An occasional flurry or snow shower is possible at UNV and/or IPT,
and have included VCSH at both sites. But any restrictions will
be very temporary, if at all. All other TAF sites stay mainly
VFR through the 18Z 24 hour TAF period.

Gusty winds will slacken toward evening, generally blowing out
of the northwest at 15 to 25kts early this afternoon. Winds
will finally weaken late tonight through Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tues...Restrictions likely in rain and snow.

Wed-Thu...Isolated showers, restrictions likely from southeast
flow/low clouds.

Fri-Sat...Widespread rain expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Martin/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Colbert
SHORT TERM...Martin/Colbert
LONG TERM...Martin/Colbert
AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner