857
FXUS61 KCTP 071128
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
628 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* A warm front will be lifting northeast across the state today,
  bringing and increase in mainly mid level clouds this morning.
* A gusty southerly wind will follow for this afternoon with
  periods of rain/showers that will continue through much of
  tonight as a weak cold front pushes through; A break in the
  precip and fair/mild conditions for Saturday
* Coldest air of the season arrives Sunday night through
  Veteran`s Day with increasing odds for snow accumulation
  downwind of Lake Erie and over the Laurel Highlands

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Moderately strong WSW mid-level Isentropic lift, centered
within the 295-305K theta channel will support
increasing/thickening, mainly alto cu clouds this morning. Low
level warm advection will increase for the afternoon hours
ahead of an approaching weak cold front, helping to lower the
cloud bases to AOB 5000 ft AGL and support some showers
beginning over the western half of the state between 19-23Z
followed by about a 7-9 hour window for the showers prior to the
cfropa.

HREF and its high res/CAM members points toward rainfall amounts
of 1-2 tenths of an inch across the Lower Susq Valley and points
east, to between one-quarter and one-half of an inch over the
Northwest Mountains.

Temps will rebound by a few to several deg F with high temp
departures from normal varying from between +2-7 deg F across
the Susq Valley and points east, to around +8-10 deg F across
the NW Mtns and Laurel Highlands.

Highs will range from the low 50s across the Mtns North and East
of KIPT to generally the mid 50s to low 60s elsewhere across the
Commonwealth.

A light to moderate breeze tonight (along with some showers)
will help to keeps temps well above normal with mins in the
upper 30s to low 40s across the NW third of the state, to the
upper 40s and low 50s near and to the south of the I-81
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Spotty rain showers should come to an end in most places early
Saturday with another quick break in the recurrent precip
pattern for Sat and Saturday night.

Look for partly to mostly cloudy conditions and not a bad start
the weekend overall (especially relative to what is in store
for early next week) with above avg max temps in the 50-65F
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*First cold snap and taste of winter conditions Sunday through
 early next week

Another dynamic low pressure wave and potent cold front will
bring yet another period of breezy conditions and round of
gusty rain showers on Sunday. Reinforcing cold fronts thereafter
will usher in  the coldest air so far this season early next
week through Veteran`s Day. Deep troughing will be carved out
over the Eastern U.S. resulting in a very favorable NW flow
setup for the first widespread lake effect and orographically
enhanced snow accumulation. Max temps will be 10 to 20 degrees
below the historical average Mon-Tue with wind chills in the
teens and 20s. Wind chills likely don`t rise above the 20s and
30s at all on Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

Accumulating snowfall is favored across the typical northwest
mountains lake effect region and Laurel Highlands upslope snow
region. Current ensemble guidance indicates plowable snowfall
(2"+) is favored in the northwest mountains downwind of Lake
Erie. Antecedent warm ground temperatures should limit
accumulation at onset. East of I-99 and south of I-80, snow
showers are possible but accumulating snowfall is less likely at
this juncture.

The cold December-like air does not last long and is forecast
to retreat by the middle of next week with temperatures
returning to near seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Today will start out with BKN cloud deck at FL250 that will
gradually lower and become overcast throughout the morning as
moisture moves toward the area from the upper Great Lakes. Short
term models indicate the majority of ensemble members bringing
rain to KBFD and KJST around 07/19Z then through the central
airfields by 07/21Z. Any precipitation will arrive in the
southeast (KMDT and KLNS) after 00Z. Stratiform rain will likely
impact the area through the early evening hours tonight. Wide
spread MVFR to IFR ceilings will be likely across central
Pennsylvania tonight before the cloud deck gradually scatters
our Saturday morning.

As the frontal boundary approaches, a return of LLWS with winds
above 2,000 feet increasing to 35KTS to 40KTS through the
morning hours. Some of this wind will be transported to the
surface with daytime mixing through the layer. Added WS wording
through this increase as the FL020-FL040 layer will be
sufficiently turbulent, even with surface gusts, similar to the
previous event.

Outlook...

Sat...MVFR/showers lingering NW early. Becoming breezy/LLWS
late.

Sun...Windy FROPA, MVFR/showers changing from rain to snow or
mix by Sunday night over the western and central terminals. Sfc
wind gusts 20-30kts from 250-280 degrees.

Mon and Tue...Blustery with MVFR/IFR conditions in lake
effect/upslope snow at KBFD/KJST. MVFR to low VFR elsewhere. Sfc
wind gusts 20-30kts from 260-290 degrees.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
AVIATION...Bowen/Tyburski