408
FXUS61 KCTP 242338
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
738 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Cooler than average holiday weekend with a brisk breeze and
  spotty showers giving way to more sunshine and marginally
  warmer temperatures by Memorial Day.
* Periods of rain return later Tuesday and persist through the
  end of next week; Wednesday looks like the coolest day.
* Although temperatures should moderate into the end of May,
  there are no signs of a substantial summertime warmup as the
  calendar flips to June.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers are diminishing eastward through the evening and expect
activity to wane after sunset. It will remain breezy, with
gusts of 20-30 mph expected.

Weak upper-level ridging favors a drier period and decreasing
clouds for tonight. Winds will gradually diminish this evening,
with min temps generally ranging from 40-45F (about 5-10F below
late May climo.)

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A fairly robust trailing shortwave trough will slip southeastward
from the Great Lakes across the northern Mid Atlantic states on
Sunday. This moisture starved feature should help to trigger
another round of scattered rain showers across CPA, with an
uptick in coverage coincident with the peak daytime heating.
Moisture will be limited, so we don`t expect anything more than
perhaps a tenth of an inch of rainfall. The highest PoPs will be
across the northern mountains.

Building high pressure should finally bring and end to the rain
showers Sunday night into Monday. Any clearing could provide
some downside risk to minimum temps and possibly result in
patchy frost over the western highlands with lows currently fcst
in the upper 30s to near 40F.

Monday continues too look like the pick of the holiday weekend,
as max temperatures tick a bit higher into the 65-75F range.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will pass east of the region on Tuesday, with
clouds increasing ahead of a sfc low that will begin tracking
up the Ohio Valley Tues night. High temps Tuesday will generally
be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, although they may hold in the
low to mid 60s across the Laurel Highlands where the clouds will
thicken the soonest.

A similar pattern to what we had this past week will develop
again by Wednesday, with another round of cooler and damp
weather. Models highlight another phasing/amplifying upper
trough developing over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes, and
digging southeastward into the Ohio Valley and the Mid Atlantic
region for the mid to late week.

So, it appears our relatively cool and damp pattern will
continue into the end of May, with no signs of true summerlike
weather on the horizon through the beginning of meteorological
summer on June 1.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Gusty winds will continue into tonight. Scattered showers from
today have mainly moved off to the east now leaving mainly VFR
conditions. Lower ceilings are hanging on across the NW
mountains, and will continue to remain MVFR to IFR throughout
the night. Elsewhere should stay VFR overnight with drier air at
the surface.

Improvement to VFR should occur at all sites into Sunday
afternoon. Winds will remain gusty throughout the day. Cloud
decks will remain broken to scattered with ceilings between 5
and 10 thousand feet. Restrictions likely won`t return to
central PA until Tuesday with the unsettled pattern bringing
more rain and lower clouds.

Outlook...

Mon...Dry with VFR conditions.

Tue PM-Thu...Lowering/thickening clouds with widespread showers
expected again.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Evanego
NEAR TERM...Evanego/Tyburski
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Evanego
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Evanego
AVIATION...Bowen