867
FXUS61 KCTP 040814
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
314 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Arctic cold front brings light snow, gusty winds and travel
  impacts to the Allegheny Front this morning
* Plummeting temperatures into Thursday night with near record
  lows Friday morning
* Reinforcing cold pattern locks in below average temperatures
  through the second week of December

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Cold front almost to Lake Erie. Narrow strip of WAA clouds is
making some --SN across the nrn tier. Thus far, we haven`t seen
any visbys below 1SM in PA. Clouds struggling to get past UNV.
The cold front should continue steadily across PA from NW to SE
thru the day. 12Z is a good average of FROPA time for BFD and
18Z for MDT. It continues to look like the moisture will be very
limited, and the timing not all that great for deep-er
convection (limited instability) despite the warming impact of
the lake water. Water temp off Erie is 42F. Snow squalls are
still possible, but all the factors align better over NY state
vs PA. Some risk still exists for squalls over nrn PA, but they
may neutralized or weakened by the time they get close to I-80.
The accums still look very meager for Central PA with max accums
in the N where they will probably pick up just an inch.

As the cold air rushes in, the 8H temps drop to around -17C in
the N by sunset which is about 10C colder than right now (3 AM
EST). Wind could gust into the 30s on the higher hills during
the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The wind lowers quickly in the first part of the night, and some
places may be calm by morning as high pressure slides overhead.
The light wind and clearing sky will allow temps to drop
precipitously. Low temps Fri AM will be in the single digits
across the Alleghenies and Laurels. See the Climate section
below for current records for the 5th of Dec.

There is a wave rolling to our south on Friday that will
attempt to drop a (literal) few snowflakes on the srn tier. No
accums are expected, and most people will not see any flurries.
Have left in an obligatory 20 PoP roughly S of the Turnpike.
Maxes should not quite get to 32F even in the warmer locations
thanks to the arctic air and clouds streaming overhead from the
near-miss wave to our south - despite a light southerly sfc
wind. WAA late in the day and Friday night should keep temps
8-18F milder than the previous night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Series of reinforcing shortwaves offer opportunities for snow
late in the weekend and early next week; however the main theme
in the long term will be the cold pattern with below normal
temps expected to last through the second week of December.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stratus with MVFR or lower cigs will persist over the NW
mountains and Laurels (BFD and JST) for much of tonight. UNV and
IPT are right on the edge of the stratus deck, and thus lower
confidence for MVFR conditions (both VFR as of 01z). Latest
satellite imagery also shows a bit of clearing around JST, but
much of the model guidance shows a trend towards IFR and even
LIFR by 06z Thu with the potential for light freezing drizzle or
flurries from that point until cold FROPA Thursday morning.

Main issue for late tonight into Thursday will be the passage of
a strong cold front. This will bring the potential for heavy
snow showers, mainly at BFD and JST, but perhaps also into UNV,
AOO, and maybe IPT between late tonight and mid day Thursday.
The cold air and low level moisture is not real deep, but the
airmass behind the front is abnormally cold, which has the
potential to compensate by providing low level instability.
There is also some potential for marginal LLWS right ahead of
the cold FROPA, but in general the shear will be dissipated by
mechanical mixing via wind gusts.

The weather for Friday into Monday will feature weather systems
to the southeast and northwest of our area, so while low CIGS
and snow showers may prevail at times, not seeing any big storms
at this point.

Outlook...

Fri...Cold start to the day with temps 0-15F. Slight chance of
light snow across the southern half of central PA with
restrictions possible.

Sat-Mon...Restrictions possible, chance of snow showers in the
NW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Cold temperatures in the wake of the Arctic Front will bring
frigid temperatures to central Pennsylvania, the coldest of this
winter thus far. Multiple locations across the area will be
challenging record low temperatures on December 5th:

Location|Record
Harrisburg | 12 (1926)
Williamsport |   8 (1926)
Bradford | 0 (2007)
Altoona | 13 (1966)

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin/Colbert
CLIMATE...NPB