623
FXUS61 KCTP 201839
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
139 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Areas of dense and freezing fog early this morning; otherwise
  partly to mostly cloudy today becoming cloudy tonight
* Period of rain later Friday through Friday night precedes a
  drying trend over the weekend
* Mild pattern with rain prior to Thanksgiving turns decidedly
  colder with temperatures below average by next weekend

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Areas of dense and freezing fog will result in locally hazardous
travel conditions early this morning. We`ve expanded the DFA
eastward across the central Alleghenies into the mid and lower
Susquehanna Valley based on IR sat/fog trends and sfc
(ASOS/RWIS) obs.

Fog fades by midday with partly to mostly cloudy conditions
prevailing for the rest of today. Max temps in the mid 40s are
fairly uniform across CPA and are near to slightly below late
November climo. Cloudy and a bit milder tonight (~+10F vs. last
night) with pockets of fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Split stream flow aloft eventually sends a cold front through
CPA to end the week, driving a period of rain most likely from
late Friday afternoon through Friday night/AM Saturday. Some
pockets of mixed precip may be possible on the northern edge of
the precip by early Saturday morning, but differences with
model QPF placement offer significantly reduced odds/confidence.
Max temps Friday bounce 5-10F to the upside reaching the 45-55F
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drying trend expected over the weekend behind the cold frontal
passage. Upper level trough pivoting through the Great Lakes may
deliver some rain/snow showers to the northern tier on Sunday.
On balance, it should be a quiet weekend with temps remaining
close to the historical average.

While the exact timing remains uncertain (typical fast/low
biases evident in the GFS/ECMWF), a period of rain appears most
likely in the Tuesday or Wednesday time frame ahead of the next
split stream system tracking eastward from the Central U.S.

Ensemble model data continues to advertise a pattern shift
toward colder/below average temperatures after Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure stretching from the Middle Atlantic
states into New England is keeping sfc winds light and variable.
ANd has lead to clear skies above the surface. Leftover low
level moisture from the rain and wet snow Wednesday lead to a
large area of dense fog across central PA overnight. This is
still affecting several airfields, JST/AOO/UNV, with only slow
improvement expected into late afternoon. Northern and southeast
airfields have stay or returned to VFR, BFD,IPT,MDT,LNS.

With the clear skies and light winds, in general expect a re-
formation of fog and low cigs overnight and into Friday morning
until some stronger forcing/winds arrive ahead of the next
weather system. Those TAF sites still foggy my improve just in
time for fog to redevelop there as well.

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...Rain spreading northeast across the region late Friday
and continuing into the mid morning hours of Saturday with
restrictions likely.

Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR.
Tue...Restrictions in widespread rain possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner