395
FXUS61 KCTP 051037
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
637 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Warming trend into the first weekend of July with hot/humid
  conditions expected to peak Sunday and Monday
* Isolated t-storms possible downwind of Lake Erie and over the
  Allegheny/Laurel ridgetops Saturday afternoon and evening;
  daily chances for showers and t-storms next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some fog possible early throughout the deeper valleys in
Northern PA.

This aftn looks like it could hold more possibilities for
showers/storms over the NW third of the CWA. Bumped PoPs up by
10-20 pct N of I-80 to include a mention for more areas from a
previously dry fcst. Dewpoints will be getting well into the 60s
over far NW PA and even >60F at BFD. Just a little kick needed
at the sfc (usually the lake breeze and/or terrain can do that)
and CAPE could get into the 500-1000 range. One negative for
thunder would be the cap/warm layer around 12kft, but clouds
should grow tall enough to make isold to sct SHRA at the least.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Humidity ramps up to more uncomfortable level on Sunday by
adding another 2-4 degrees to max temps (mid 80s to low 90s)
with Tds climbing to between 65-70F in the central and eastern
valleys. In other words, hot and humid by the end of the holiday
weekend with min temps also making a series of higher-lows.

Sunday still looks rain-free for now as CPA will be in the
squeeze play subsidence zone between approaching cold front to
the west and potential tropical/subtropical depression near the
Carolina coast. Beneath the axis of the Upper Level Ridge
shifting east across the Commonwealth Sunday, mid level temps
will warm to around +10C, likely capping most or all deep
convection, except for perhaps one or 2 isolated cells over the
ridgetops.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PoPs increase into Monday and Tuesday as a relatively weak
northern stream upper level trough arrives and taps into some
tropical moisture off the East Coast.

Quite muggy overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s (NW to SE)
Sunday night and Monday night.

Very warm weather will continue on Monday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Temps will fall a few degrees into Tue. PoPs drop
into the 20-40 pct range on Wed as heights briefly rise over
the area, before the PoPs rise again Thursday with the approach
of another shortwave trough.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Aside from some very thin cirrus/high level smoke from Canadian
wildfires, skies are expected to remain clear and winds will be
light and variable this morning.

Fair weather cu are expected to develop during the day
Saturday, most numerous across the northern tier, as south to
southwest flow increases to 4 to 8 kts. Isolated showers and
storms are possible mainly in the northwest Sat afternoon.
Probability of a shower or storm impacting a north western TAF
site is less than 50 percent.

Outlook...

Sat-Sun...VFR.

Mon-Wed...Potential for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl/RXR
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl/RXR
LONG TERM...Lambert/Colbert
AVIATION...Colbert/Bowen