195
FGUS74 KCRP 201708
ESFCRP

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1108 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Guadalupe River Basin in South Texas...

The Corpus Christi Texas National Weather Service Office has
implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the
Guadalupe River Basin in South Texas. AHPS enables the
National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic
outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet.

In the table below...The 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days. Example: The Guadalupe River at Victoria has a
flood stage of 21 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Victoria
forecast point will rise above 13.5 feet during the next 90 days.

        Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations
                  Valid [ 02/19/2025 - 05/20/2025 ]

Location        FS(ft) 90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------        ------ ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Guadalupe River
Bloomington      20.0  13.0 13.9 16.6 19.1 20.6 21.3 22.8 23.5 25.4
Victoria         21.0  6.8  8.2  10.9 12.3 13.5 14.1 17.4 20.6 26.0

Coleto Creek
Arnold Road Cr.  15.0  4.2  4.2  4.2  6.5  7.5  8.3  9.5  10.8 11.6
Hwy 59 Victoria  25.0  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1 12.6  13.6 15.6

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
by providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...The
level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
Internet at:
 https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=crp

Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.

$$