419
FXUS64 KCRP 110810
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
310 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Key Messages:

- Elevated Fire Risk today and Wednesday over South Texas (see fire
  weather section below.
- Wednesday, a moderate to high chance of 100F in the Brush
  Country, and especially on the Rio Grande Plains.

With a flat ridge over the Southern Plains and a sfc ridge over the
Gulf, we get into a weak return flow today. Our temperatures look to
bounce up so that the Brush Country is in the upper 80s to around
90. Lows overnight will bump up too, as we are in the upper 50s to
around 60. The 500 mb ridge moves a bit to the east, the southerly
flow increases on Wednesday, which helps to push the temperatures
to 100F along the Rio Grande Plains. The chances for getting above
100 are 50-80% in the Brush Country and along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Key Messages:

- Elevated to Critical Fire Weather Conditions late this week

- Well above normal (15-20 degrees above normal) Thursday and Friday

- Near zero rain chances through early next week

Well above normal temperatures will continue Thursday and Friday
before the arrival of our next cold front with high temperatures
flirting with the 100 degree mark Friday. Our next cold front is
expected sometime Friday night into Saturday filtering reinforcing
drier air in its wake. Without much cold air advection in the wake
of this front, temperatures will only drop to seasonal normals
bringing highs back down to the 80s with overnight lows in the 50s.
Rain will also be absent from the long term forecast with near zero
chances for rain daily.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Very quiet weather will continue through the TAF cycle with VFR
conditions. Light and variable winds overnight will become southerly
by mid-morning Tuesday at 10-15 kt, gusting as high as 25 kts closer
to the coastline. By Tuesday night, winds become more southeasterly
at 10-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

A gentle south breeze this morning will become moderate breeze by
the afternoon. Winds will increase to a moderate to fresh breeze
tonight especially past 20 nautical miles and persist into
Wednesday. Weak and variable winds Thursday will becoming
southerly Thursday night and increase to 15-20 knots ahead of
our next cold front late this week. With the current forecast,
winds are expected to shift to the north Friday night into
Saturday morning in the 10-15 knot range before shifting back to
the east early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

It looks like we will require a Rangeland Fire Danger statement
today and Wednesday. For today, the minimum relative humidity values
in the Brush Country remain below 30%, as the south flow helps to
keep the Coastal Plains above 30%. Winds during the day remain
around 10 mph at 20 feet. We get humidity recovery overnight with
the max relative humidity getting to near 100% overnight. However,
Wednesday, a dryline moves into the Brush Country and drops the
minimum RH values to 5-15% for much of the Brush Country, and 15-30%
for some of the Coastal Plains. Fuels will remain very dry, causing
the ERC (energy release component) values to go above the 80th
percentile. The 20-foot winds, however, remain around 15 MPH keeping
the fire danger elevated through Wednesday afternoon. If the winds
increase a bit more, we could get in a critical situation.

In the wake of Wednesday`s dryline, low relative humidity values
will continue with relative humidity values dropping as low as 10-
13% across the Brush Country and 15-35% across the Coastal Plains
and Victoria Crossroads through Friday. Behind our next cold front
late this week, more dry air will filter into the region with
relative humidity values across the Brush Country dropping to the 9-
12% range with slightly higher values of 15-35% along the Coastal
Plains and Victoria Crossroads. To make matters worse, rain is not
expected to provide any relief to the fuels. The Texas A&M Forest
Service (TFS) is forecasting Energy Release Component values across
the Brush Country to be in the 90-96th percentile through Friday
before jumping above the 97th percentile for this weekend.
Similarly, TFS is forecasting the same categories (ERC in the 90-
96th through Friday and above the 97th percentile this weekend) for
the Coastal Plains and the Victoria Crossroads with the only
difference being that the Energy Release Component values climbing
above the historical maximum values for this time of the year. These
extremely high Energy Release Component values combined with the
critically low relative humidity values will promote elevated to
critical fire weather conditions through this weekend. The only
positive factor of the forecast is that winds are expected to remain
below 20 mph through this weekend which should help limit the fire
spread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  60  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          81  58  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            88  61 100  57 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             84  57  94  55 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          76  63  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           89  58  99  54 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        83  59  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       72  63  76  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...AE/82