246
FXUS64 KCRP 082327
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
627 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 545 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

- Potential for hazardous beach conditions due to minor coastal
flooding, increases late in the week. Medium to high chance
advisories will be needed, especially Thursday and Friday.

- Low (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
 Thursday.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Convection so far today has been very limited, but still think we
could see some isolated showers or storms develop over the area this
afternoon with some low level (700-850mb) energy pushing across
the area. Coverage should be less than yesterday and only have
around 20% mentioned for most of the area. Similar situation for
tomorrow, but convection should be more confined to south and east
area. After that, drier air will move into the area with a
surface boundary that stalls near or across South Texas. Don`t
expect much change in afternoon high temperatures, but we should
be able to knock off a few degrees on the overnight lows for
Saturday and Sunday mornings. At the surface the drier dewpoints
will be most notable inland where dewpoints fall into the mid 50s
Friday and Saturday afternoons. Closer to the coast we`ll be lucky
to see 60 (dewpoint) Friday, but could be a bit drier Saturday.
Dewpoints will increase a bit overnight, but should still see
overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s both Saturday and Sunday
mornings, with a few spots north likely touching 58-59.

Will see a return of steady onshore flow Sunday into Monday which
will quickly increase moisture back into the region bringing more
humid conditions. Rain chances will be low, but an isolated sea
breeze shower isn`t out of the question Monday through Wednesday.

Coastal flood potential is still expected to increase Thursday and
Friday

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Isolated showers extending from COT to north of VCT, are moving
south and weakening. Thus, have included a TEMPO through 01Z for
these two TAF sites to address these showers. There are also
showers south of LRD, closer to Zapata, but are not anticipated
to impact the Laredo airport. Convection is expected to diminish
through the evening hours. On Thursday, low to medium (20-30%)
rain chances will be more confined to the southern Rio Grande
Plains to the Southern Coastal Bend. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will vary from
northeast to east this evening with occasional gusts to around
20 knots, becoming light and variable overnight. Northeast to
east winds are expected once again Thursday with gusts around
20-25 knots by afternoon, mainly ALI and CRP.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Moderate northeast wind this afternoon and tonight will
strengthen to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) levels Thursday through
Friday, then weakening to moderate (BF4) over the weekend. Low to
moderate (20-50%) shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the
forecast through Thursday. Very low rain chances of 10-20% close
out the rest of the week as drier air filters across the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

RH values remain moderate through the end of the week (>30%) with
light to moderate winds. Drier air is expected to move across the
region Friday and continue through the weekend with briefly low
RH values slightly below 30%, mainly northern Brush Country to
the Rio Grande Plains. However, a generally weak wind should
preclude any fire weather threats.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  89  73  89 /  10  20  10  10
Victoria          70  93  65  92 /  10  10   0   0
Laredo            73  94  71  94 /  10  20   0  10
Alice             72  93  69  93 /   0  20   0  10
Rockport          77  89  73  88 /  10  20  10  10
Cotulla           72  94  70  95 /  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        73  91  71  90 /   0  30  10  10
Navy Corpus       79  86  77  85 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 10 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ250-255-270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...TE/81