132
FXUS64 KCRP 221945
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
245 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Key Messages:

- Moderate to Major Risk of Heat-Related Impacts

- Low chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight across the
  Brush Country, Rio Grande Plains and Victoria Crossroads

A mid to upper level ridge will begin to move into the region
tonight and gradually begin to gradually build tomorrow. However,
before the ridge moves into the region, a mid level shortwave will
swing across the region which could lead to a low (less then 20%)
chance of showers. If any lingering activity moves into South Texas,
it`s expected to remain confined to the Rio Grande Pains, Brush
Country and Victoria Crossroads. After the rain chances subside
tonight, there will be low to medium chance for patchy fog to
develop across the Coastal Plains to the Victoria Crossroads.
Temperature tonight and tomorrow night are expected to remain mild
in the mid to upper 70s. Daytime highs tomorrow will climb into the
low to mid 90s across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads and
upper 90s to near 102 degrees across the Brush Country. Tomorrow`s
heat index will peak from 100-111 degrees across South Texas as the
warm temperatures interact with the high dewpoints, therefore, there
will be a moderate to major risk for heat-related impacts.

Please use caution if outdoors and remember to remain hydrated and
take frequent breaks. More heat safety information can be found at
weather.gov/heat

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Key Messages:

- Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts across South Texas
  through the weekend into Memorial Day.

- Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday through
  Thursday of next week.

Overall, very warm and drier conditions can be expected across South
Texas this holiday weekend, followed by increased rain chances
through much of next week.

Ridging aloft will transition eastward into the Gulf waters late in
the weekend, with several shortwave troughs then tracking in the
flow. A frontal boundary is progged to move over the area sometime
Tuesday, followed by a couple of additional shortwaves Wednesday and
Thursday. The aforementioned bouts of disturbances in conjunction
with above normal moisture (PWATs 1.8-2.0 inches) will result in low
to medium rain and thunderstorm chances (20-50%) daily from Monday
through Thursday next week. Although storm totals will generally
remain at half an inch of less, WPC has already highlighted the
northern half of the CWA under a Marginal (at least 5%) risk of
excessive rainfall during the Monday to Tuesday period.

The Heat Risk will remain at Moderate to Major levels Saturday
through Monday, before slightly cooler temperatures return Tuesday
through Thursday next week in the wake of the weak boundary. Heat
indices will hover around 105-110 through the weekend, peaking at
near 110-115 Monday afternoon particularly across western portions
of the Coastal Plains and Brush Country. These conditions will
require further monitoring for the potential issuance of Heat
Advisories.

**Citizens with planned outdoor activities for the Memorial Day
weekend should closely monitor the heat conditions, and prepare to
adjust plans to accommodate frequent breaks from the heat in cooler
locations to avoid heat-related illnesses. Also, if heading outdoors
practice heat safety: drink plenty of water, wear lightweight, loose-
fitting and light-colored clothing, and apply sunscreen. Never leave
anyone in a vehicle unattended and don`t forget to check the
backseat!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions should continue this afternoon into this even with
moderate winds. MVFR ceilings are expected to return 06/08z and
lift around 14z. There is a low to medium chance for some fog to
develop at ALI and VCT with ALI having the best chances to drop
visibilities below 1 mile at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

A moderate to gentle southeasterly flow (BF 3-4) is expected tonight
increasing to predominately moderate levels (BF 4) tomorrow
afternoon and persisting through Friday night. A moderate (BF 4)
onshore breeze can be expected to continue through Monday
afternoon. Periods of gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breeze will then
follow through mid week. There is a low to medium (20-50%) chance
for showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  92  78  92 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          74  93  75  93 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            76  99  75 101 /  20   0   0   0
Alice             75  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          78  89  79  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           76 102  76 103 /  20   0   0   0
Kingsville        76  94  76  95 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       79  86  79  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...JCP/84