Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
227 FXUS64 KCRP 231106 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 606 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 605 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 - Moderate (40-50%) chance for showers/storms Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Continued high moisture over the region and weak disturbances keep a complicated forecast in place through the next couple of days. Model guidance is not in great agreement overall with NBM still progging pretty high PoPs while high res models are much less robust and pain mainly scattered activity across the area. Will continue to lean toward the high res guidance as they have been performing fairly well the past couple of days. Overall picture will have isolated to scattered activity along the coast and in the nearshore waters overnight. Mid-level vorticity shifts eastward toward morning, likely taking the convection farther away from the coast for the morning hours. Would then expect scattered sea breeze convection in the afternoon. Similar conditions are expected Sunday but with less mid-level energy as ridging begins to shift over the region. We`ll hold onto the deep moisture though, so the sea breeze should continue to produce convection. Temperatures remain a couple degrees below normal for Saturday and Sunday before starting to inch back up into early next week. We wont completely shut off rain chances during the work week, but should see a decrease in coverage as moisture does lower a bit. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Only minimal changes to the aviation forecast were required this morning. VFR conditions will generally prevail across area terminals through the cycle, with the exception of a brief period this morning for MVFR visibilities at VCT and convection in CRP/ALI later in the day. Confidence in showers and storms impacting the western sites today remains low, therefore have continued to withheld a mention of it in the TAFs, but depending on where convection does develop this afternoon may need to be added. Winds will be light through most of the period, but could become gusty at times near or around any thunderstorm that does develop and impacts the sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Light to gentle winds will prevail through this weekend before becoming gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow early next week. Rain chances are moderate to high through the weekend then decrease to moderate for much of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 75 91 75 / 50 30 50 30 Victoria 92 72 94 72 / 50 30 50 10 Laredo 98 76 95 77 / 50 40 40 20 Alice 94 74 94 73 / 50 40 50 20 Rockport 91 77 91 78 / 50 30 40 30 Cotulla 97 76 96 75 / 40 30 40 10 Kingsville 92 74 92 74 / 50 30 50 30 Navy Corpus 88 80 89 81 / 50 30 40 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...ANM/88