Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
634 FXUS64 KCRP 051748 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1248 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 - Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts across portions of South Texas through the weekend. - Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms area wide next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Strong ridging in the mid and upper levels will keep rain chances very low (0-7%) tonight through the weekend. Strong subsidence associated with the ridge combined with the arrival of Saharan Dust will lead to hazy conditions with visibilities around 5-6 miles at times over the weekend. In addition to the haze, the subsident airmass will result in temperatures being above normal by 4-8 degrees. This heat combined with the humidity will bring a major to extreme risk of heat related impacts across the Coastal Plains, Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through the weekend into next Monday. As a result, Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of S TX. The Victoria Crossroads is expected to remain in a Moderate Risk. As the ridge retreats westward at the start of the work week, a mid level trough of low pressure will track southeastward toward S TX. This will allow moisture to deepen across the area and lead to the environment becoming increasingly unstable. By Tuesday, PWATs are forecast to increase to 2.0-2.4 inches, which is close to 2 standard deviations above normal. The combination of the deep moisture, instability and upper support from the trough will be conducive for the development of showers and thunderstorms. The chance for storms will be highest across the Victoria Crossroads with 40-60% Tuesday through Wednesday. The lower chances of 20-30% will be across the Rio Grande Plains due to the proximity to the upper ridge. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue this afternoon into this evening with gusty winds. Winds are expected to decrease across the eastern sites around 00-02z and western sites around 05-07z. There is a low to medium chance for MVFR ceilings to develop tonight, so added a tempo to a few of the TAFs. VFR conditions are expected back areawide tomorrow morning around 14-16z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A moderate (BF 4) onshore breeze can be expected through the weekend and into next week. There is a 20-30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms across the offshore waters Friday, then rain chances diminish through the weekend. A plume of Saharan dust is expected this weekend which will result in hazy skies. Rain chances return Monday night and increase through mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 93 79 94 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 75 94 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 78 102 79 104 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 76 98 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 81 91 81 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 78 102 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 77 95 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 89 82 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...JCP/84