613
FXUS64 KCRP 050835
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
235 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Key Messages:

- despite temperatures being a few degrees "cooler" Well above
normal temperatures in south Texas

- Areas of sea fog, with visibilities less than 1 nautical mile

- Areas of land fog with the potential for less than 1/2 mile

A 500 mb low will move off the Mexican coast sometime this afternoon
and move out over the Gulf. The models continue to be all over the
place with the two model camps still active. The GFS with dry,
cloudy weather or the ECMWF with cloudy, light precipitation over
the Coastal Bend. The NBM still keeps the weather on the dry side.
While most of the time will be dry, when it fogs in, there is a low
chance for drizzle/sprinkles. The drizzle looks to be light enough
that the QPF would be a Trace. So will keep the somewhat dry, foggy
forecast over the Coastal Plains.

Temperatures: The Brush country will be a few degrees cooler as the
500 mb low moves off the coast spreading clouds over the region. So
instead of realizing temperatures in the upper 80s again,
temperatures will take a brief break. Highs on Thursday look to be
back to where we are expecting as the clouds break up in the
afternoon and the Brush Country takes a run at 90, while the
Coastal Bend ranges from around 70 on the barrier island to the mid
80s inland along the coastal counties.

Fog: dewpoints are up into the mid 60s to around 70 this morning.
Temperatures have cooled to around the crossover point, but are
expected to fall below that (mid 60s) by 12z this morning. So will
extend the marine fog advisory a couple of hours as the water
temperatures around Corpus Christi Bay are well below the dewpoints
this morning. However, with some mixing to day, the dewpoints will
dry a bit so that the water temperatures and dewpoints will be
close. Tonight is expected to have another Marine Dense Fog advisory
as the mixing decreases and the moisture pools near the sfc.
Dewpoints will be a little higher than the water temperatures
overnight. The same cycle is expected on Thursday. Overland, will
issue a dense fog advisory, despite the current reprieve in falling
visibility, the fog will become dense as the lows are achieved later
this morning. We are expecting to see the same thing on Thursday, at
least in the Coastal Plains again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025


Key Messages:

- Very unusual warm pattern through Saturday with temperatures
flirting around record highs, especially over the Brush Country

- Areas of sea fog with visibilities less than 1 nautical mile
remains a concern through this weekend

A near stationary pattern of an upper-level high over northeastern
Mexico, a cut-off mid-level low over the western Gulf, and warm
moist onshore flow will persist through Saturday before finally
shifting eastward early next week. This will allow for a very
unusual warm pattern, indicated by Extreme Forecast Indices (EFI) in
the 0.7-0.9 range and temperature anomalies 2-3 standard deviations
above normal from the surface to 500mb. Temperatures will flirt with
record highs, especially on Saturday as highs around 95 are forecast
over the Rio Grande Plains. Highs will generally range from the
lower 80s near the coast to the low-mid 90s over the Brush Country
through Saturday.

The cold front mentioned in previous forecast packages have trended
less progressive with its southward push, stalling just over the
northern part of the County Warning Area (CWA) or the Hill Country
by Sunday night as an inverted surface trough develops and
counteracts over South Texas and along the Texas Coast. It will take
an extra surge of high pressure to push the cold front through the
region Tuesday. Therefore, have low (20-30%) rain chances Monday
over the Coastal Plains along the trough with PWATs around 1.5"
(99th percentile) increasing to low to medium (20-50%) rain chances
on Tuesday in coordination with FROPA. It is important to note,
there remains uncertainty and deviation in model guidance with how
progressive the front pushes southward. The increase in cloud cover
Monday and Tuesday will drop highs into the 70s across the area.

Lastly, water temperatures around the Corpus Christi Bay are warming
at a rate around 1 degree a day, currently sitting between 60-62
degrees. Dewpoints will continue to range from 65-68 degrees through
the weekend. Therefore, expect periods of patchy to dense marine fog
to continue as dewpoints remain warmer than SSTs. Cooler drier air
in wake of the front early next week will hopefully prevent
additional marine fog development.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

The VCT TAF site has dropped to LIFR due to lowering CIGs and
dense fog. Areas of fog will continue to move inland across the
eastern portions of S TX overnight, but the dense fog will be
patchy leading to conditions varying between LIFR and MVFR through
the overnight hours. For LRD and COT, MVFR conditions are expected
to develop between now and 09Z with brief periods of IFR
expected between 12-16Z. Conditions begin to improve by mid
morning Wednesday, becoming VFR by early afternoon area-wide.
S-SE winds will generally be 5-15KT.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Dense marine fog, with visibility less than 1 nautical mile, is
expected in the nearshore waters, and the Bays through Thursday as
well. Winds are expected to remain south to southeast with weak
to moderate flow over the Gulf and the Bays through Thursday. Sea
fog will remain a concern through the weekend, but confidence
lowers as we head late into the weekend and sea surface
temperatures near dewpoints. Weak to moderate south to
southeasterly flow of 10- 15 knots will persist through Sunday. A
cold front is expected to pass through early next week, shifting
moderate winds out of the east to northeast by Tuesday. There is a
low to medium, 20 to 40 percent, chance of showers early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  67  81  65 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          80  66  83  65 /  10   0   0   0
Laredo            82  66  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             83  66  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          75  65  76  63 /  10   0   0   0
Cotulla           83  66  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        82  66  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       74  65  73  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ245-247-
     342>347-442-443-447.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ231-232-
     236-237-250-255.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...TE/81