Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
947 FXUS64 KCRP 042343 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 643 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 631 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Low to medium (20-40%) rain chances this afternoon through Saturday, chances decrease to around 20% early next week. - Low to moderate risk of heat-related impacts. Please continue to take heat safety precautions. Visit weather.gov/heat for more resources && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Attention remains on the progression of the MCC over the Hill Country this afternoon, continuing to produce light to moderate rain with pockets of thunderstorms. This complex is expected to move eastward through this afternoon then shift southward across South Texas tonight, fizzling out as it loses instability/intensity. Due to above normal moisture and mid-level support still in play, kept low 20-30% chances of showers (less for thunderstorms) across the Coastal Plains tonight, increasing chances slightly for Saturday as we get aid from surface heating. Following Saturday, we`ll be under northeasterly flow aloft from the decaying MCC low while another mid-level low from the northeastern Gulf Coast shifts westward across the Gulf early next week. This mid-level low looks to develop more into an inverted trough as it reaches and extends across the Texas Coast Monday through Tuesday, resulting in low (20-30%) chances for showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances diminish heading into the latter part of next week as the trough shifts westward and South Texas falls under the influence of a broad ridge stretching across the Gulf. Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts continue through next week with max heat indices between 100-110, with the hottest occurring during the latter half of next week when there`s absence of rain chances. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 VFR conditions this evening is mainly expected to persist across much of the region throughout the TAF period with some exceptions. Have MVFR CIGs for ALI/LRD and have included some PROB30s for ALI/VCT/COT for MVFR CIGs/VSBYs due to possible showers. Have opted to maintain VCSH for all sites except LRD with regard to shower coverage through the period. The aforementioned convective complex north of the region looks to dissipate before making it to South Texas, however showers remain possible as storms have popped up across the Coastal Plains this evening. Tomorrow have gusty south to southeasterly winds to around 25 knots and mainly dry with VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 A moderate to fresh south to southeasterly breeze (BF 4-5) will continue through this afternoon and tonight. A gentle to moderate onshore breeze (BF 3-4) will then dominate beginning Saturday, shifting more southerly during the latter half of next week. Low chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 88 77 91 / 30 30 10 10 Victoria 77 88 74 92 / 30 30 10 10 Laredo 78 94 76 95 / 20 20 10 20 Alice 76 90 74 93 / 30 30 0 10 Rockport 80 88 80 90 / 30 30 10 10 Cotulla 78 93 77 95 / 30 30 10 20 Kingsville 77 88 75 91 / 30 30 0 10 Navy Corpus 81 88 80 88 / 30 30 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...BF/80