Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
605 FXUS64 KCRP 061743 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts across portions of South Texas through the weekend. - Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms area wide next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Forecast remains on track with little change through the weekend into Monday. A strong ridge in the mid and upper levels centered over S TX, will keep rain chances very low (0-7%) through the weekend. Strong subsidence associated with the ridge combined with the arrival of Saharan Dust will lead to hazy conditions with visibilities around 5-6 miles at times over the weekend. In addition to the haze, the ridge will also lead to temperatures being 4-8 degrees above normal. This heat combined with the humidity will bring a major to extreme risk of heat related impacts across the Coastal Plains, Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through the weekend into next Monday. A Heat Advisory for Saturday looks borderline with only a few locations expected to reach heat indices of 110-113. The Saharan dust may also keep temperatures a tad lower than what models are suggesting. Confidence in the need for Heat Advisories are higher for Sunday and Monday when more locations across the Coastal Plains and Brush Country are expected to exceed 110 for a longer duration and a few locations may briefly reach a heat index of 115. The probability of reaching 115 heat index for S TX is less than 20 percent. The Victoria Crossroads is expected to remain in a Moderate Risk of heat related impacts through much of the period. The ridge is forecast to retreat southwestward at the start of the work week, in response to a mid level trough of low pressure tracking southeastward toward S TX. Latest model runs are slower with this feature than previous runs and now show the trough moving across S TX Wed-Thu timeframe. As a result, rain chances have been lowered for Tuesday to 15% along the Rio Grande to 50% across the Victoria Crossroads. The highest chances are Wednesday with 30% along the Rio Grande to 60% across the Victoria Crossroads. A gradual decrease in rain chances is expected Thursday through Friday as the upper trough slowly moves east. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF cycle. Gusty winds this evening will continue this afternoon and begin to decrease around 02-04z. Haze will impact all sites during this cycle, however, due to low confidence from a visibility standpoint, did not include in the TAFs as visibilities should stay above 6SM. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected tonight from 09-12z at ALI. && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore breeze can be expected through the weekend and into next week. A plume of Saharan dust is expected this weekend which will result in hazy skies. Rain chances return Tuesday with a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 95 79 94 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 77 95 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 78 104 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 76 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 82 91 82 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 78 105 78 105 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 98 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 82 90 82 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...JCP/84