296
FXUS64 KCRP 200409
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1109 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Key Messages:

- Low (20-30%) chance for isolated showers/thunderstorms to
  develop across Brush Country this evening, increasing to more
  moderate (30-50%) chances by Sunday morning across South Texas.

- Coastal Flooding Advisory in effect through 7 PM CDT this
  evening.

- HIGH Rip Current Risk in effect through Sunday evening.

A deep positively tilted upper-level trough will continue
progressing eastward, accompanied by a closed 500 MB low currently
located over the Desert Southwest. This low is expected to track
across the Texas Panhandle during the short-term period. Embedded
shortwaves ejecting off the closed low, in combination with an
approaching cold front, will enhance low-level convergence across
the western portions of our forecast area this evening into Sunday
morning. PWATs are forecast to increase to between 1.6-1.8 inches,
supporting the potential for isolated showers/thunderstorms to
develop across the north and western Brush Country starting this
evening. Overall confidence in precipitation this evening and
early overnight remains low (20-30%), as most of the activity is
anticipated to stay north of our area where the environment is
more favorable. However, this evolving pattern signals a broader
uptick in rain chances across portions of South Texas through the
day on Sunday.

By early Sunday morning, the aforementioned slow moving cold front
will begin pushing into the Rio Grande Plains, increasing PoPs to
more moderate (30-50%) levels. By the afternoon hours, the inland
moving sea-breeze will interact with the advancing cold front.
This boundary interaction will serve as a focus for more
widespread shower/thunderstorm development during the afternoon
and evening. Where the heaviest storms occur, expect totals of no
more than a few tenths of an inch. Low to moderate chances for
showers/thunderstorms (20-50%) will persist into Sunday night.

Switching gears a bit, increasing southeasterly swell (5-8 feet)
and periods (7-8 seconds) thanks to persistent onshore flow will
lead to a high rip current risk through Sunday. With respect to
coastal flooding, this morning`s swell transfered more energy
going into high tide, allowing the water level to rise to advisory
thresholds. This constituted the issuance of a Coastal Flood
Advisory through 7 PM this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Key Message:

- Daily low to medium rain chances through at least mid-week.

The weak front that moves to the Coastal Bend on Sunday stalls over
the Coastal Bend through at least Tuesday. There seems to be a weak
sfc trough that remains, but the main focus the rest of the week
turns to the west, as the 500 mb trough ejects shortwaves over
Mexico, and into South Texas. With the anomalously high PWAT values
(1.5-1.7") there will be low to medium (30-60%) chances for
showers and thunderstorms into Thursday. Friday and Saturday, the
chances are very low (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms as
the 500 mb ridge builds back over Texas again.

Temperatures are continuing to grand from the lower to mid 80s along
the Coastal Bend to the lower to mid 90s in the Rio Grande Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Not much change in overall forecast with a mix of VFR and MVFR
conditions expected through much of the TAF cycle. A frontal
boundary is expected to move toward the COT between 10-12Z,
bringing a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms. As the boundary moves E-SE through the day Sunday,
the chance of storms will also shift toward the coast. The
boundary is expected to stall near the coast by Sunday afternoon.
A 25-55% chance of precipitation will continue Sunday night across
eastern areas. S-SE winds 15-20KT with gusts up to 25KT will
decrease through 09Z to around 10-15KT. Winds will become light
and variable by 12-15Z across the west then increase to around 10
knots out of the north late Sunday morning for COT and LRD. As
the boundary drifts eastward, winds will become light and variable
across VCT, ALI and CRP by 18-21Z. Light and variable winds and a
20-40% chance of storms will likely continue through Sunday night
as the boundary meanders near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Moderate to fresh onshore flow (BF 4-5) will keep wave heights
between 5 to 7 feet and choppy over the bays through this evening
into the overnight hours. By Sunday, onshore flow weakens to a
moderate breeze (BF 4), decreasing to light to gentle (BF 2-3) by
Sunday night. On Monday, onshore winds are a light to gentle
breeze (BF 2-3), but increase to a Moderate to Fresh Breeze (BF
4-5) by Tuesday afternoon and evening and maintaining that
through the weekend. Low to medium rain chances (20-50%) are
expected daily through Thursday before diminishing into the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

With a frontal passage anticipated on Sunday, surface moisture
gets pushed to the southeast with a drier airmass moving in from
the west throughout the day. Minimum RH`s drop to as low as
15-30% across the Rio Grande Plains by Sunday afternoon.
Additionally, 20 foot winds will be under 20 mph, so this will
limit the fire risk to slightly elevated conditions for the
region. Moisture will start to increase across South Texas, with
low to medium (20-60%) rain and thunderstorm chances returning to
the forecast daily beginning Sunday and continuing through mid-
week. Drier conditions will develop late week, with rain chances
diminishing to less than 20% by Friday. However, minimum RH values
will remain above thresholds with no elevated or critical fire
weather concerns expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    72  85  69  85 /   0  40  40  30
Victoria          70  86  65  86 /   0  50  60  30
Laredo            70  88  65  92 /  20  30  10  20
Alice             69  87  67  89 /  10  40  30  30
Rockport          74  85  70  84 /   0  40  50  40
Cotulla           69  87  62  93 /  40  50  10  10
Kingsville        70  85  68  87 /   0  40  30  30
Navy Corpus       73  81  71  80 /   0  40  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....JSL/86
AVIATION...TE/81