171
FXUS64 KCRP 222337
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
537 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 237 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Key Message:

- Cold light rain/drizzle continues through tonight followed by
  sunshine tomorrow afternoon

The inverted surface trough hugging the Texas Coast over the
northwest Gulf will continue to usher in low-level moisture from the
surface to 750mb and allow light rain/drizzle across the Coastal
Plains through tonight. Overcast skies will keep nearly steady
temperatures with lows only dropping a few degrees into the upper
30s to lower 40s. The misty air will likely lead to a slight
reduction in visibility tonight, represented by the patchy fog
inclusion.

The aforementioned trough will move further northward just offshore
the Texas Coast tomorrow as a mid-level trough swings across the Ark-
La-Tex region. The notable 850-700mb positive vorticity forcing
shifts east of the area with the trough in the afternoon. In
coordination, rain chances will dissipate and clouds will clear.
Most of South Texas will see the sun and warmer temperatures with
highs climbing into the 60s and a few areas over the Rio Grande
Plains reaching the lower 70s due to longer sunshine exposure.

Winds become calm Sunday night as a broad surface high stretches
from South Texas northeastward. The clear skies, calm winds, and wet
ground will lead to efficient radiational cooling and another chance
for patchy fog across the Coastal Plains. Dewpoints will still
struggle to increase, leading to another chilly night with lows from
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Key Messages:

- Dry conditions and a warming trend expected through much of next
week.

- Weak frontal passage forecast for Thursday.

A dry atmospheric profile will prevail through much of the work
week, with PWATS between 0.40-0.70 inches (generally below the 25th
percentile climatologically), limiting any potential for measurable
rainfall. Model guidance suggests increasing moisture by late in the
week, however, there is considerable uncertainty in just how much,
leading to lower forecast confidence. What the the models do agree
on is the arrival of a cold front early Thursday before retreating
northward as a warm front by Saturday. Despite the frontal passage,
precipitation potential remains minimal as model moisture content
remains too variable at this time. At best, isolated showers could
develop along the front, but probabilities remain way too low at
this time to justify introducing mentions of rain in the forecast.

With clearer skies and persistent ridging aloft through much of the
long-term period, temperatures will steadily warm. Beginning Monday,
highs will range from the low 70s to low 80s, with overnight lows
ranging from the upper 40s to low 50s. On Tuesday, highs will warm
to the upper 70s to low 80s, with lows moderating into the 50s
through midweek. With the cold front passage early Thursday, a
modest cooldown is in store, briefly lowering temperatures to near-
seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

CIGs continue to vary from MVFR/IFR across South Texas this
evening along with drizzle and light rain over the Coastal Plains.
Overnight into early tomorrow morning, there will be periods
where the CIGs could drop to LIFR. Mist, drizzle, and light rain
will reduce VSBYs to 3-5SM at times. Conditions will improve west
to east Sunday morning. Winds will be mainly light and variable
overnight and Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Strong northeasterly to north winds persist through this evening.
Winds will diminish from west to east, however, wave heights will
remain elevated, resulting in Small Craft Advisory conditions
over the open waters through midday Sunday. Seas will subside
below 7 feet Sunday afternoon. There is a moderate to high
(60-80%) chance of showers today through Sunday, with a low
(20-40%) chance of thunder. Weak northeasterly flow will veer to
become south-southeasterly on Monday, persisting through mid-to-
late week. By Thursday, weak to moderate northeast flow returns as
a weak cold front approaches the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    39  63  42  73 /  40  20   0   0
Victoria          39  62  40  72 /  50  30   0   0
Laredo            40  71  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             39  65  41  76 /  30  10   0   0
Rockport          41  60  45  66 /  50  30   0   0
Cotulla           39  71  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        40  65  41  75 /  40  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       42  60  48  65 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ250-255-270-
     275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF/94
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...JSL/86