934
FXUS64 KCRP 181938
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
238 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Key Messages:

- Wind Advisory for portions of South Texas through 9 PM tonight.

- Isolated showers/thunderstorms across the northern Brush Country
Saturday afternoon/evening.

Cloud cover will gradually increase tonight as warm air advection
strengthens ahead of an approaching disturbance from the west. This
will help keep overnight lows relatively warm, generally in the low
70s across the region. Winds will remain breezy overnight as a tight
surface pressure gradient will continue to support gusts exceeding
20 knots. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 9 PM this
evening for the Coastal Plains and portions of the Brush Country.
The LLJ, that has been in place the last couple of days, is
expected to weaken slightly and shift eastward by Saturday
morning, gusty winds may persist. However, confidence in
additional Wind Advisory-level criteria on Saturday remains low.

On Saturday, a positively tilted upper-level trough will continue to
shift eastward, eventually evolving into a closed 500 MB closed low
over the Desert Southwest. Embedded shortwaves ejecting off the
closed low, coupled with a surface cold front, will help establish
low-level convergence across western portions of the CWA. This,
along with PWATs rising to 1.5-1.7 inches by Saturday
afternoon/evening, could support the development of isolated
showers or thunderstorms across the northern Brush Country.

If thunderstorm development occurs, it will likely be driven
by localized diurnal heating, and is contingent on the erosion of
cap currently forecast (CIN 200-300 J/kg). Overall confidence in
precipitation remains low (20-30%) at this time, as most of the
activity should remain in South Central Texas where conditions
are more favorable. However, this pattern signals a broader
increase in rain chances for portion of South Texas on Sunday.
More on this in the long-term forecast discussion below.

Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly moderated by the cloud
cover, with afternoon highs generally in the 90s. Slightly "cooler"
conditions, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, will be in place
along the coast and into the Victoria Crossroads. Overnight lows
will remain in the low 70s Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Key Messages:

- Low to medium chances for rain Sunday through the middle of next
  week

Rain chances will increase across the region Sunday as a front
approaches the region, and is expected to stall across South
Texas. Apart from the expected stalled boundary, PWAT values are
expected to rise to around 1.5-1.7" ahead and along the boundary,
which are well above normal values for this time of year (near
99th percentile). This will promote medium (30-60%) rain chances
across South Texas. Although rain chances will be elevated for
this Easter Sunday, rainfall amounts are expected to remain under
half an inch areawide, so don`t expect a complete washout. Rain
chances will continue into next week with the meandering front
lingering, and several disturbances make their way across the
region, resulting in elevated rain chances (25-60%) Sunday through
Thursday. Rain chances drop to the 15-25% range, late in the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

VFR conditions with breezy southeast winds at 20-25 knots gusting
to 35 knots will prevail through the evening hours. Overnight
tonight, MVFR CIGs return through at least late Saturday morning.
However, these lower CIGs may linger through the early afternoon.
Winds, though a bit lower than during the day today, will remain
elevated through the nighttime hours before increasing once again
by mid-morning. This could assist in the erosion of those lowered
CIGs. There is low confidence in brief MVFR VSBYs due to the
development of patchy fog early Saturday morning, so added in a
TEMPO group in KALI and KVCT to account for this.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Tonight, onshore flow subsides to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5)
breeze and seas 5 to 7 feet. Onshore flow increases back to a
fresh to strong breeze (BF 5-6) Saturday with seas remaining at
5-7 ft. A moderate breeze (BF 4) will continue Sunday decreasing
to light to gentle (BF 2-3) Monday and Monday night before
increasing back to moderate levels (BF 4) Tuesday. Low to medium
(25-50%) rain chances are expected Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

With the expected rainfall, increase in moisture and Energy Release
Component values in the 50-60th percentile early in the week
dropping to below the 50th percentile, elevated fire weather
conditions are not expected throughout the long term.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    71  85  72  85 /   0  10   0  40
Victoria          69  86  71  85 /   0  10   0  60
Laredo            72  95  71  88 /  10  10  20  30
Alice             70  89  71  88 /   0  10  10  40
Rockport          74  84  74  85 /   0   0   0  50
Cotulla           72  92  72  88 /  20  10  30  50
Kingsville        71  87  72  87 /   0  10   0  40
Navy Corpus       73  80  73  81 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ231>234-240>247-
     342>344-346-347.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...KRS/98