Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
370 FXUS64 KCRP 301730 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1206 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 - Low to medium (30-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning late in the weekend and continuing into early next week. Greatest chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday. - Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 We are all excited about the prospect of the upcoming rain, but we need to pay attention to the potential for heat related impacts Sunday. Highs will continue to reach into the upper 90s to low 100s, with heat index values between 105-112 in the afternoon. Those in the Brush Country should be especially cautious when working or playing outside as a major to extreme (levels 3-4 of 4) heat risk is anticipated. With many residents likely outdoors for the Labor Day weekend, practicing heat safety will be critical. Please remember to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, and avoid prolonged direct sun exposure. Additional safety tips are available at weather.gov/heat. By Sunday, the ridge will move to the west with a shortwave riding along the eastern periphery. This will combine with abundant moisture (PWAT values reaching 2+ inches) and a stalled boundary over the area to bring us some of the rain we desperately need. A low to medium (20-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Sunday and continue through Tuesday morning. Once again, guidance is still unclear on how far south the moisture will make it into the area, so have continued to lower PoPs just a bit for Sunday and even into Monday. Even so, expect that there could be high rainfall rates at times which could lead to isolated flash flooding. WPC has maintained a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over the northern tier of counties on Sunday/Sunday night, then expanded this to cover most of South Texas for Monday/Monday night. Rain chances will diminish by Tuesday as the stalled boundary moves across the area bringing drier air. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period, though brief MVFR ceilings are possible for ALI between 11Z-15Z. A low chance for showers and thunderstorms storms remains at VCT terminal, but this is still too low to include in TAFs. Moderate southeasterly winds will develop behind the afternoon sea breeze, then diminish into the overnight hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow with occasionally fresh (BF 5) breezes along the southern bays and nearshore waters will continue through the weekend. Rain chances will become low to medium (20-70%) late Sunday through early Tuesday afternoon before diminishing as a boundary moves south through the waters. The boundary passage will shift winds to the north and bring in drier air. Onshore flow will return by Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 95 77 93 / 0 20 30 60 Victoria 76 95 73 90 / 20 50 40 70 Laredo 78 104 78 100 / 0 0 20 50 Alice 75 99 75 96 / 0 20 20 70 Rockport 80 93 78 91 / 10 30 40 60 Cotulla 78 101 77 95 / 0 10 30 70 Kingsville 76 97 76 95 / 0 20 20 60 Navy Corpus 82 91 81 89 / 0 20 30 60 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LS/77 AVIATION...LS/77