Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
349 FXUS64 KCRP 121813 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1213 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 - Fire Danger Statement remains in effect until this evening for elevated fire weather conditions across South Texas. - Above average temperatures throughout the forecast. - Low chances for showers/thunderstorms (20-40%) around mid-week next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 A mid-level high over the southwestern Gulf with ridging over South Texas will promote dry conditions and above average temperatures throughout much of the upcoming forecast. Confidence for a cold front to bring rain to portions of our CWA is waning with the latest model runs regarding a Pacific low bringing a front through the region. Recent global guidance is showing the low opening up and getting embedded into the overall flow as it approaches the Rockies from the west and staying just north of the Southern Plains. Resulting in the cold front stalling north of our region, thereby further limiting rain chances for South Texas. Another low immediately behind it may send a second front our way. Currently have low 20-40% chances for showers around Tuesday/Wednesday but will continue to monitor trends closely. Highs today range in the upper 70s to mid 80s as a slight warming trend continues expect low to upper 80s through the weekend with some mid 90s showing up out west around early next week. Overnight lows start off in the low to mid 60s then warm to the mid 60s to 70s next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected across South Texas for this TAF cycle. South/southeasterly winds this afternoon are gusting to around 25 knots but should die down after sunset. Fog is more likely tonight with increasing surface moisture and light winds. Have included LIFR VSBYs for VCT/ALI with moderate chances for fog. May also include reduced VSBYs for COT/LRD in next TAF cycle if confidence improves. && .MARINE... Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions are expected for the rest of today and tonight mainly across the southern bays and open waters. A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze today will persist into the weekend becoming more moderate at times. Low Rain or thunderstorm chances (20-35%) over the waters during the first part of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Today a Fire Danger Statement is in effect through 6 PM this evening for elevated fire weather conditions over all of South Texas. Moderate south to southeasterly winds combined with low relative humidity values as low as 25% across the Brush Country and as low as 45% across the Coastal Plains. Fuels are very dry. Will have to keep a close watch on winds because a Red Flag Warning may be necessary if winds are a little higher than anticipated this afternoon. As moisture slowly returns the remainder of the week elevated fire weather conditions look less likely but will monitor the situation closely and issue products as necessary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 63 84 64 84 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 59 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 61 88 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 58 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 67 81 67 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 58 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 60 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 70 81 70 80 / 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BF/80 AVIATION...BF/80