974
FXUS64 KCRP 192041
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
341 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor coastal flooding and high risk of rip currents will persist
through the weekend

- Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Monday morning

Radar will depict isolated showers continuing to move onshore this
afternoon mainly along the Coastal Bend in association with a
passing shortwave and above normal moisture in the region (1.5-
1.6"). This activity is expected to remain isolated in nature as it
continues to track west with a low chance for an embedded
thunderstorm possible. Activity will dwindle this evening before
increasing again tomorrow yielding a similar story of isolated
thunderstorms mainly in the southern portions of the region. Expect
highs to be in 80s the tomorrow again with lows generally in the 60s
with some 50s possible in the Victoria Crossroads. P-ETTS is
maintaining tide levels around 2.5 above MSL for Sunday and Monday.
Swell periods are expected to remain around 8-9 seconds with waves
around 6-8 feet which is expected to combine with influence from the
recent full moon during high tide cycles and strong east winds. This
will lead a high risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding to
go along with Small Craft Advisory conditions in the Gulf waters.
There is increasing confidence that this will need to be extended
though this will be assessed as we enter next week.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor coastal flooding and increased rip current risk expected to
continue into early next week.

Little change with this long term forecast update. We kick off the
work week with a mid to upper level ridge anchored across the
Southern Plains. To our west, an upper level trough will dig across
the Desert Southwest before ejecting across the Plains through the
first half of the work week. The trough will pass too far to our
north to make an impact locally. Increased subsidence and PWATs
generally less than 1" will keep us dry through much of the week.
Towards the end of the work week, a shortwave will cut into the
eastern periphery of the upper level ridge. A weak front will
attempt to make the journey across the state but looks to stall to
our north. Even if this boundary does make it here, it will likely
pass unnoticed as moisture return does not look too impressive ahead
of it.

A persistent easterly flow across the Gulf and increased swells from
8-10s will continue our coastal flooding rip current threat through
the middle of the week. P-ETSS guidance hints at tide levels near 2-
2.5` MSL during each high tide cycle. Conditions look to start
improving by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

VFR conditions can be expected most of the period with some
periods of MVFR ceilings tomorrow morning. Some isolated showers
have popped up across the region mainly along the Coastal Bend.
Expect this to persist through this afternoon/evening. Winds are
expected to remain elevated across all sites with frequent gusts
around 20-25 knots. This will subside this evening before picking
up again tomorrow after sunrise across mainly the eastern TAF
sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Moderate to strong easterly flow is expected to continue through
Monday. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through
Sunday night. An easterly flow will decrease to weak to moderate
levels through the day Monday. However, Small Craft Advisory
conditions may linger through Monday as seas will be slower to
subside. A generally light onshore flow will develop by midweek
and continue as we head into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    70  84  69  84 /  10  10   0  10
Victoria          60  87  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            68  87  68  89 /  10  20   0  10
Alice             66  86  65  87 /  10  20   0  10
Rockport          68  84  68  85 /  10  10   0   0
Cotulla           67  88  66  88 /   0  10   0   0
Kingsville        68  85  67  86 /  10  20   0  10
Navy Corpus       74  81  74  82 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ245-342>347-
     442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ250-255-270-
     275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP/92
LONG TERM....TC/95
AVIATION...NP