Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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087
FXUS64 KCRP 100542
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1242 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

- Very low rain chances Thursday and Friday (~15%), low chances (20-
30%) mainly east through the weekend

- Saharan dust expected to lead to hazy conditions today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

We`re still dealing with the challenge of Saharan dust today.  Vis
through today did not reflect the forecasted haze with mainly
10mi vis noted outside of convection. GOES dust detection does
indicate the plume of dust, but mainly still offshore the Texas
coast. Think the more south-southeasterly flow in the low to mid
levels may keep the bulk of the dust near the coast and shifting
north up the coast for today. Have backed off on haze mention for
the Brush Country, but will hold it for the Coastal Plains. This
then leads to more questions in terms of convection potential today.
Will continue to assume mostly dry conditions, though an isolated
shower is not out of the question, especially as the sea breeze
moves farther inland and potentially away from the most expansive
dust. However, we`re then fighting the loss of heating as it gets
far enough inland. To throw another wrench into the equation, a weak
mid-level disturbance will be approaching the lower Texas coast. So,
all in all, will keep mainly silent PoPs for tomorrow, but have a
bit of 15% slight chance painted inland.

As we go into Friday the Saharan dust will be exiting the area as a
mid-level disturbance drifts northward into South Texas. Have
blended in some global model guidance with NBM for this period as
NBM looks a bit too dry. Will still keep it to just slight chance
(~20) PoPs for now. As pieces of energy continue to rotate into
the area Saturday associated with this wave, will maintain a low (20-
30%) chance. This disturbance should be out of the area by Sunday
with lower PoPs expected Sunday into next week.

Through the end of this week and into Saturday high temperatures are
expected to be mainly in the 90s area wide. As we dry out going into
next week will expect a slight uptick, but staying under control, at
near normal levels. Highs in the Brush Country will likely top 100
though daily for the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Mainly VFR conditions expected to persist through the TAF period
except for ALI. Have maintained MVFR CIGs/VSBYs for ALI from 09-13Z.
Expect another round of Saharan dust to increase hazy conditions
with reduced VSBYs that may also hinder shower/t-storm activity.
Confidence in showers/thunderstorms remains low with generally less
than 10% chance across South Texas. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions
will prevail with south to southeasterly winds gusting to around 25
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Expect a mainly moderate (BF 4) onshore breeze across most of the
waters through this weekend and into early next week. We`ll keep low
to moderate chances (25-50%) for showers/thunderstorms through
Saturday, with drier conditions next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  77  92  79 /  10  10  20  10
Victoria          94  76  92  77 /  10  10  20  10
Laredo            99  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
Alice             96  75  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
Rockport          90  81  90  82 /  10  10  20  10
Cotulla           99  77  99  78 /  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        93  75  92  77 /  10  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       89  81  89  82 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...BF/80