Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
269 FXUS64 KCRP 030521 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1221 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Low (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday, diminishing this weekend. - Minor to moderate heat risk will continue into next week with heat index values peaking around 105 degrees, drink plenty of water. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 This morning, hi-res models are resolving more scattered shower activity across the Coastal Bend through late morning. Given this, I blended in 18Z HRRR guidance to throw in chances (20-30%) primarily from the Brush Country over toward the Victoria Crossroads. A 500 mb high pressure system will continue to move westward into northern Mexico and eventually into the Desert Southwest by Sunday. A mid-level trough in the northeastern Gulf will slowly fill in as it detaches from the main flow and becomes more of an elongated inverted trough spanning across the northern Gulf. Given this area of low-level deep moist convergence, increased chances for precipitation will increase for locations along coastal counties across the Gulf. Specifically for the Middle Texas Coast, the greatest chances (20-30% chance) will be generally north of Port Aransas and especially into the upper Texas coast. This inverted trough will slowly move around the Desert Southwest high pressure system, providing daily chances for rain from Monday through Wednesday. One of the main limiting factors in forecast rainfall amounts will be that PWATs will generally range from 1.5-1.8" during the aforementioned time frame, so there will be less moisture to wring out compared to the previous week. Temperature wise, temperatures will be near seasonal through this weekend, with the Heat Risk maxing out on Independence Day, reaching into the Moderate category. This Heat Risk reduces over with increased cloud cover this weekend but starting to ramp back up to Moderate risk from mid-week. For those recreating on our local beaches, there will be a Moderate risk for rip currents given the persistent southeast winds approaching near 25 mph across the Texas coastline. This will continue into the 4th of July. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions are expected tonight from 06-17z. After 17z tomorrow morning, all sites should return to VFR conditions. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to threaten all sites tomorrow morning into the afternoon hours. However, due to low confidence on when and where the this activity will develop, only went with VCSH/VCTS and PROB30`s. Any showers that develop should dissipate or move out of the area by 23z-02z late tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Winds will also increase late tomorrow morning and remain gusty through the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly winds will persist through Sunday with seas decreasing from 3 to 2 ft. Winds will still be onshore be predominately gentle strength with nearshore waters and bays seeing brief periods of moderate breezes in the afternoon through mid week. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-30%) will primarily last from Monday through mid-week, with the greatest impact being brief gusty winds in the strongest storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 78 91 77 / 20 0 0 0 Victoria 91 76 90 76 / 30 10 10 0 Laredo 94 76 95 77 / 20 20 10 10 Alice 91 75 94 75 / 20 10 10 0 Rockport 89 80 89 80 / 20 10 0 0 Cotulla 93 77 95 77 / 30 30 20 10 Kingsville 90 76 92 76 / 20 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 89 81 89 81 / 20 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AE/82 AVIATION...JCP/84