


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
802 FXUS64 KCRP 182315 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 615 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 611 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 - Cold front arriving on Sunday, bringing drier/breezy conditions and leading to Elevated fire weather concerns along the Coastal Plains. - Minor coastal flooding likely along the Gulf-facing beaches Sunday/Monday. - Small Craft Advisory in effect across the coastal waters on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 107 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Models are generally in good agreement in regards to the previously advertised frontal passage tomorrow. Although high temperatures are likely to remain above normal (low to mid 90s), the post frontal change will be most evident in humidity levels and low temperatures. Very dry conditions are forecast to develop in the afternoon on Sunday with dewpoints dropping into the 40s to 50s range, and leading to RH values below 30 across most inland locations. Winds will become breezy behind the front, which combined with the low humidity is likely to lead to Elevated fire weather concerns, mainly across the Coastal Plains. Overnight temperatures will be pleasant, especially across the Victoria Crossroads, with lows forecast to fall into the mid to upper 50s. Along the coast, overnight lows will generally range from the mid 60s to the low 70s (not a significant change). Unfortunately these conditions will not last, as onshore flow is progged to resume by Monday, bringing higher temperatures and humidity back into the area. Models are hinting at a couple more frontal passages mid to late week, but will have to hold-off for now on any details until better agreement is reached within model runs. Tides have been running at almost a foot above predicted today, nearing 1.8 ft at Aransas Pass this afternoon. Swell periods have remained below 6 seconds, and no impacts can be observed at area beach cameras at the moment, but new moon is fast approaching early next week. The frontal passage from tomorrow is forecast to shift winds around to a north to northeasterly component offshore, which will be more ideal for coastal flooding to occur along the Gulf-facing beaches of the Middle Texas Coast. Although at this time have refrained from issuing an Advisory, will continue to closely monitor beach conditions today in case one is required. Based on P-ETSS guidance, there are higher probabilities of coastal flooding to occur Sunday/Monday, especially at times of high tide. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Mainly clear skies are expected throughout the period. Will again see the potential for MVFR VIS at ALI and VCT toward morning. A cold front then pushes through the area beginning around sunrise at VCT, progressing south through the rest of the terminals during the morning hours. Breezy northerly winds are expected for a few hours following frontal passage. Winds weaken and begin shifting northeast to east by the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 107 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A southerly flow continues through tonight across the coastal waters before a front moves through the area on Sunday shifting winds to the north on its wake. Briefly fresh to strong offshore flow is expected, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 7 AM through 7 PM Sunday. Onshore flow resumes on Monday at gentle to moderate levels. There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers across the offshore waters on Sunday, followed by dry conditions through mid-week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 107 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A cold front will move through the area on Sunday bringing much drier conditions and breezy northerly winds. RH values are forecast to fall below 30% across much of South Texas by Sunday afternoon with winds in the 15-20 mph range. ERC values will be in the 70th-96th percentile tomorrow across portions of the Coastal Plains, which in conjunction with the aforementioned weather conditions is likely to lead to Elevated fire weather concerns. Onshore flow resumes Monday and will bring a gradual increase in moisture. Rain chances remain minimal through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 72 90 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 66 90 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 69 94 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 69 94 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 73 89 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 65 93 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 70 91 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 76 86 74 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ231-232- 236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANM/88 AVIATION...PH/83