Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
087 FXUS64 KCRP 100542 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1242 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Very low rain chances Thursday and Friday (~15%), low chances (20- 30%) mainly east through the weekend - Saharan dust expected to lead to hazy conditions today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 We`re still dealing with the challenge of Saharan dust today. Vis through today did not reflect the forecasted haze with mainly 10mi vis noted outside of convection. GOES dust detection does indicate the plume of dust, but mainly still offshore the Texas coast. Think the more south-southeasterly flow in the low to mid levels may keep the bulk of the dust near the coast and shifting north up the coast for today. Have backed off on haze mention for the Brush Country, but will hold it for the Coastal Plains. This then leads to more questions in terms of convection potential today. Will continue to assume mostly dry conditions, though an isolated shower is not out of the question, especially as the sea breeze moves farther inland and potentially away from the most expansive dust. However, we`re then fighting the loss of heating as it gets far enough inland. To throw another wrench into the equation, a weak mid-level disturbance will be approaching the lower Texas coast. So, all in all, will keep mainly silent PoPs for tomorrow, but have a bit of 15% slight chance painted inland. As we go into Friday the Saharan dust will be exiting the area as a mid-level disturbance drifts northward into South Texas. Have blended in some global model guidance with NBM for this period as NBM looks a bit too dry. Will still keep it to just slight chance (~20) PoPs for now. As pieces of energy continue to rotate into the area Saturday associated with this wave, will maintain a low (20- 30%) chance. This disturbance should be out of the area by Sunday with lower PoPs expected Sunday into next week. Through the end of this week and into Saturday high temperatures are expected to be mainly in the 90s area wide. As we dry out going into next week will expect a slight uptick, but staying under control, at near normal levels. Highs in the Brush Country will likely top 100 though daily for the first half of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Mainly VFR conditions expected to persist through the TAF period except for ALI. Have maintained MVFR CIGs/VSBYs for ALI from 09-13Z. Expect another round of Saharan dust to increase hazy conditions with reduced VSBYs that may also hinder shower/t-storm activity. Confidence in showers/thunderstorms remains low with generally less than 10% chance across South Texas. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions will prevail with south to southeasterly winds gusting to around 25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Expect a mainly moderate (BF 4) onshore breeze across most of the waters through this weekend and into early next week. We`ll keep low to moderate chances (25-50%) for showers/thunderstorms through Saturday, with drier conditions next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 77 92 79 / 10 10 20 10 Victoria 94 76 92 77 / 10 10 20 10 Laredo 99 77 99 77 / 10 10 10 10 Alice 96 75 95 76 / 20 10 20 10 Rockport 90 81 90 82 / 10 10 20 10 Cotulla 99 77 99 78 / 10 10 10 10 Kingsville 93 75 92 77 / 10 10 20 10 Navy Corpus 89 81 89 82 / 10 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...BF/80