Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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802
FXUS64 KCRP 182315
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
615 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

 - Cold front arriving on Sunday, bringing drier/breezy
   conditions and leading to Elevated fire weather concerns along
   the Coastal Plains.

 - Minor coastal flooding likely along the Gulf-facing beaches
   Sunday/Monday.

 - Small Craft Advisory in effect across the coastal waters on
   Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Models are generally in good agreement in regards to the
previously advertised frontal passage tomorrow. Although high
temperatures are likely to remain above normal (low to mid 90s),
the post frontal change will be most evident in humidity levels
and low temperatures.

Very dry conditions are forecast to develop in the afternoon on
Sunday with dewpoints dropping into the 40s to 50s range, and
leading to RH values below 30 across most inland locations. Winds
will become breezy behind the front, which combined with the low
humidity is likely to lead to Elevated fire weather concerns,
mainly across the Coastal Plains. Overnight temperatures will be
pleasant, especially across the Victoria Crossroads, with lows
forecast to fall into the mid to upper 50s. Along the coast,
overnight lows will generally range from the mid 60s to the low
70s (not a significant change). Unfortunately these conditions
will not last, as onshore flow is progged to resume by Monday,
bringing higher temperatures and humidity back into the area.
Models are hinting at a couple more frontal passages mid to late
week, but will have to hold-off for now on any details until
better agreement is reached within model runs.

Tides have been running at almost a foot above predicted today,
nearing 1.8 ft at Aransas Pass this afternoon. Swell periods have
remained below 6 seconds, and no impacts can be observed at area
beach cameras at the moment, but new moon is fast approaching
early next week. The frontal passage from tomorrow is forecast to
shift winds around to a north to northeasterly component
offshore, which will be more ideal for coastal flooding to occur
along the Gulf-facing beaches of the Middle Texas Coast. Although
at this time have refrained from issuing an Advisory, will
continue to closely monitor beach conditions today in case one is
required. Based on P-ETSS guidance, there are higher
probabilities of coastal flooding to occur Sunday/Monday,
especially at times of high tide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Mainly clear skies are expected throughout the period. Will again
see the potential for MVFR VIS at ALI and VCT toward morning. A
cold front then pushes through the area beginning around sunrise
at VCT, progressing south through the rest of the terminals during
the morning hours. Breezy northerly winds are expected for a few
hours following frontal passage. Winds weaken and begin shifting
northeast to east by the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

A southerly flow continues through tonight across the coastal
waters before a front moves through the area on Sunday shifting
winds to the north on its wake. Briefly fresh to strong offshore
flow is expected, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 7
AM through 7 PM Sunday. Onshore flow resumes on Monday at gentle
to moderate levels. There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of
showers across the offshore waters on Sunday, followed by dry
conditions through mid-week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

A cold front will move through the area on Sunday bringing much
drier conditions and breezy northerly winds. RH values are
forecast to fall below 30% across much of South Texas by Sunday
afternoon with winds in the 15-20 mph range. ERC values will be in
the 70th-96th percentile tomorrow across portions of the Coastal
Plains, which in conjunction with the aforementioned weather
conditions is likely to lead to Elevated fire weather concerns.
Onshore flow resumes Monday and will bring a gradual increase in
moisture. Rain chances remain minimal through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    72  90  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          66  90  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            69  94  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             69  94  62  95 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          73  89  70  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           65  93  62  95 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        70  91  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       76  86  74  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ231-232-
     236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...ANM/88
AVIATION...PH/83