543
FXUS64 KCRP 221106
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
506 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and
will continue to gradually warm up through tomorrow as onshore flow
returns. Highs today are expected to range from the mid 70s to lower
80s and upper 70s to mid 80s tomorrow. However, overnight
temperatures will remain chilly tonight with temperatures still
expected to fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to
mid 60s near the coast. Limited moisture availability will keep us
dry in the short term. There`s a low to medium chance for elevated
fire weather conditions developing this afternoon. Relative humidity
values below critical levels ranging between 15-35% will hang around
for one more day with Energy Release Component values in the 75-89th
percentile across the region which would be conducive for elevated
fire danger conditions. However, due to weaker than ideal winds and
recent trends, decided to not issue a fire danger product at this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Key Messages:

- Substantial warmup early this week

- Low chance for a significant cool down late next week

The long term will be dominated with a substantial warm up featuring
high temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal Monday. The surface
high pressure we have been enjoying lately will shift eastward
through the weekend and give way to zonal flow aloft and onshore
flow which will advect a significantly warmer airmass. A weak cold
front early to mid next week will briefly bring temperatures back
down to slightly above normal levels for a day. Relief to the heat
could come towards the tail end of next weeks work week as models
show a strong cold front that could result in daytime highs into the
60. However, confidence in that solution is currently low due to
model disagreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle. Winds will
be light and variable this morning shifting to the southeast late
this afternoon before becoming light a variable once again
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Weak onshore flow will return late this afternoon into this evening,
strengthening to more moderate levels Saturday evening. Moderate to
strong winds are expected to develop Sunday afternoon and persist
through Monday before returning back to weak to moderate levels.
Rain chances will be slim (less than 10%) through Monday with low
chances for rain Tuesday through Thursday across the offshore waters
between 20-60 nm off the Middle Texas Coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  54  81  63 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          79  44  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            80  54  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             80  50  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          77  60  78  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           80  51  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        79  51  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       75  66  77  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...JCP/84