200
FXUS64 KCRP 051113
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
613 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

- Hazardous beach conditions due to minor coastal flooding. A
  Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through at least Monday
  evening. An extension is likely.

- Dangerous swimming conditions into early next week with a moderate
  to high rip current risk. Remember, "wave, yell, swim parallel!"

- Daily low (20-40%) chance of showers and storms through next work
  week. "When thunder roars, go indoors."

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Daily low (20-40%) shower and thunderstorm chances will continue
through this work week, with overall moisture slightly above normal
interacting with a weak coastal trough today and Monday, then mainly
driven by surface heating and the afternoon seabreeze thereafter.
There is model disagreement in the mid-level flow late in the week,
regarding the position of a strong mid-level ridge either over the
SW CONUS (GFS) or southern CONUS (ECMWF/CMC) and the progression of
a mid-level low/trough across the Midwest. All-in-all, these
different scenarios still warrant low rain chances and no notable
weather impactful differences. Temperatures will continue to run
above normal with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows from the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

We`re going to sound like a broken record player throughout the
week, highlighting our main concerns being focused on hazardous
beach conditions. We`re heading into the season for potential `King
Tides` with well above normal tide levels caused by the full moon
being positioned closer to the Earth (perigee), increasing the
gravitational pull and therefore leading to greater tide levels. In
addition, swell periods remain around 7-9 seconds with swell heights
around 3 feet, and either northeasterly flow inducing the Ekman
transport mechanism or onshore flow. All these factors increases the
risk for water levels nearing or reaching the dunes, especially
during high tides, and therefore prolonging the need for a Coastal
Flood Advisory through much of the week. P-ETSS guidance shows tide
levels nearing 2.5 ft MSL at Aransas Pass through the day today,
then around 2.0 ft MSL during high tide through the week. There will
also be an increased risk of rip currents. All beachgoers are urged
to use caution, beach roads may be inundated, cars can get stuck,
and rip currents can take away the strongest swimmers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Expecting MVFR VSBYs at ALI/VCT from around 10Z-14Z this morning
and possible again tomorrow morning. VFR conditions all other
times. Light winds should prevail becoming variable overnight,
easterly in the morning/afternoon and southeasterly in the
afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Northeasterly winds will decrease to a gentle to moderate breeze
(BF 3-4) this morning and shift back to an east-southeasterly flow
tonight. A moderate to fresh east-northeasterly breeze (BF 4-5)
redevelops Wednesday and continues through Friday. Low (20-40%)
rain and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast through
Tuesday night before increasing to low to moderate (30-50%) rain
chances beginning Wednesday into the remainder of the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Near or above normal moisture will keep minimum relative humidity
above 30% through this week. Sustained surface and 20 ft winds will
remain weak at less than 20 mph ranging from the northeast to
southeast. High temperatures will continue to run above normal from
the low to mid 90s with daily low (20-40%) shower and thunderstorm
chances, mainly along the coast and afternoon seabreeze over the
Coastal Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  73  91  74 /  20  10  10  10
Victoria          92  69  91  69 /  10  10  30  10
Laredo            94  72  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             93  70  94  70 /  10   0  10   0
Rockport          89  75  89  75 /  20  20  20  10
Cotulla           94  71  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        90  71  92  72 /  20   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       86  77  87  79 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...BF/80