Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
815 FXUS64 KCRP 292341 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 641 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 636 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 - Daily moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts. - Borderline elevated fire weather this afternoon and Wednesday over the northern Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Limited by weak winds. - Low rain chances return Thursday into early next week, mainly over the Victoria Crossroads. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Ridging will remain in control over South Texas through Wednesday night before an inverted mid-level trough positions itself over the Texas Coast Thursday through Friday. Tonight, surface high pressure with weak winds and mostly clear skies will allow for areas of fog inland and patchy dense fog. A mid-level trough will push southward into south and southeast CONUS this weekend, causing northerly flow to develop aloft. A mid to upper level high shifts eastward into West Texas early next week as a shortwave tries to extend into South Texas (ECMWF). Areas of PVA will be around the region Thursday into early next week. Lift combined with PWAT values around the 75th percentile, will allow for a low chance of showers and thunderstorms daily, mainly focused over the Victoria Crossroads. Very dry conditions and above normal Energy Release Component (ERC) values will lead to borderline elevated fire weather conditions across the northern Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains this afternoon and Wednesday. Winds less than 15 mph remains the greatest limiting factor. Heat indices will peak around 110 this weekend into early next week, causing moderate to major risks of heat-related impacts. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 VFR conditions expected to prevail across western terminals through tonight with light and variable winds. Mostly clear skies and calm winds overnight will result in a medium to high chance for areas of fog with patchy dense fog over the inland Coastal Plains beginning around 08z. TEMPOs between 10-14z remain at ALI and VCT for dense fog with LIFR VSBYs, while lighter fog will usher MVFR conditions over CRP during the same time frame. Low chances exist for LIFR CIGs at ALI/VCT between 10-14Z. Fog expected to lift after 14z, returning to VFR conditions across the region with generally clear skies and light south/southeasterly winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 A light variable flow (BF 2-3) will continue through Wednesday then become gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) south to southeasterly into early next week. There is a very low 10-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Very dry air with relative humidity 15-20% in combination with Energy Release Component (ERC) values above the 75th percentile, and occasional wind gusts near 20 mph will lead to a greater risk for elevated fire weather this afternoon and Wednesday over the northern Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Otherwise, sustained winds are expected to remain less than 15 mph, thus limiting the fire weather threat. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 72 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 70 100 75 98 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 73 103 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 70 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 77 92 80 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 71 103 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 71 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 77 90 80 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...BF/80