433
FXUS64 KCRP 092323
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
623 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 545 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

- Coastal Flooding expected during high tides through Sunday night

- Small Craft Advisory is in effect Thursday through Friday
  morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

The main hazard and storyline from this forecast will be the threat
for Coastal Flooding. Northeast flow will promote the redevelopment
of Ekman transport which combined with higher than normal tides to
lead to increased water levels. The observed minus the predicted
tides are running about 0.7-0.9 feet above normal which would be
sufficient enough to result in Coastal Flooding with up to 1 foot of
beach inundation during times of high tide. As we head into the
weekend, the swell periods are expected to increase from 6 to 7-8
seconds which could lead to higher water level and up to 1.5 feet of
beach inundation. The P-ETTS model is showing water levels reaching
as high as 2.2-2.5 feet above Mean Sea Level during times of high
tide.

Other than that, high pressure will move into the area filtering in
drier air. The increased subsidence from the high pressure will lead
to warmer than normal temperatures and very low (less than 10%) rain
chances. While drier air will be expected with relative humidity
values dropping into the 20-30 percent range, winds are expected to
be weak enough to negate elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Scattered weak
showers currently moving westward toward the Rio Grande, are
expected to diminish around 02Z. Rain chances overnight through
Friday are very low (<5%). Easterly winds gusting to 20-25 knots
this afternoon are expected to become light and variable tonight.
A northeast to east flow is forecast for Friday with occasional
gusts around 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A fresh to strong breeze (BF 5/6) will continue through Friday
morning before decreasing to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3/4)
Friday afternoon through the weekend. A few showers could be seen
this afternoon before rain chances drop below 10% tonight and
continue through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Relative humidity values will drop into the 25-35% range Friday
through Sunday afternoons with minimum relative humidity values
increased to over 35% Monday. While drier air will be expected
with relative humidity values dropping into the 20-30 percent
range, winds are expected to be weak enough to negate elevated
fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  89  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          65  93  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            71  94  67  93 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             69  93  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          73  89  70  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           70  95  65  94 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        70  91  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       78  85  74  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ250-255-270-
     275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...TE/81