Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
809 FXUS64 KCRP 111113 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 613 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 603 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 - Weak mid-level disturbance will bring a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms today, mainly over the waters in the morning, shifting inland over the Coastal Plains with the seabreeze. - Daily low rain chances (10-40%) for morning showers over the waters and the afternoon seabreeze into the inland Coastal Plains. - Hot conditions continue with minor to moderate heat risk through the middle of the week worsening to moderate to major late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 A broad mid-level low stretching from the Ark-La-Tex region into Deep South Texas will meander today, contributing areas of PVA, and combining with near normal moisture and the seabreeze to create a 20- 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Following into midweek, South Texas will be sandwiched between two high pressure systems, keeping diurnally driven (daytime heating and seabreeze) low chances of showers and thunderstorms. Looking forward into Friday and this upcoming weekend, a mid-level inverted trough looks to pass over or south of the region to Mexico from the Bay of Campeche area, leading to enhanced moisture (PWAT values around 2.0") and slightly higher rain chances. Heat remains the primary concern in the forecast with a minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts through Wednesday, increasing to moderate to major Thursday into the weekend. Max heat indices will peak from 105-109 then around the 110 mark late in the week. Elevated fire weather condition risk has decreased with relative humidity likely not to go below 30% across any part of the Brush Country. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 VFR conditions will dominate the period, aside from morning MVFR VSBYs/CIGs over VCT/ALI through 13-14Z. Winds will remain light, with occasional gusts near 20 knots following the seabreeze this afternoon. Morning precipitation has developed near the coast and is expected to move inland, with coverage comparable to yesterday. Highest chances will be across the inland Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. PROB30s for -TSRA were added at VCT/CRP/ALI, starting around 13z for CRP and 16-19Z for VCT/ALI. Any storms may bring locally gusty winds and brief reductions in VSBYs. Precipitation chances will diminish by early evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 A light to gentle (BF 2-3) south to southeasterly flow is expected during the overnight hours, increasing to a gentle to moderate (BF 3- 4) breeze during the afternoon and evening hours each day through Wednesday. Gentle to moderate flow will then persist beginning Wednesday night. Low rain chances (20-40%) will persist heading into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 76 96 76 / 20 0 20 0 Victoria 97 74 98 74 / 30 10 30 10 Laredo 103 78 104 78 / 10 10 10 10 Alice 99 74 100 74 / 20 0 20 0 Rockport 92 79 93 80 / 20 0 10 10 Cotulla 101 77 101 77 / 10 0 10 10 Kingsville 96 74 97 74 / 20 0 20 0 Navy Corpus 90 81 91 81 / 20 0 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...KRS/98