Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
468 FXUS64 KCRP 132336 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 636 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 630 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - Monitoring a disturbance that is expected to move into southwestern Gulf - Isolated showers/storms possible daily through Thursday, likely increase in coverage Friday/Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 In the short term, no big concerns with just the potential for isolated sea breeze convection this afternoon and again tomorrow. Mid-level pattern isn`t supportive of anything substantial over South Texas. Temperatures remain above normal with highs ranging from the mid and upper 90s east to around 105 west. Now for the more interesting part of the forecast. A tropical wave is currently crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and will move out over the Bay of Campeche later today and into Thursday. The associated convection is quite disorganized at this time. The residence time over water between the Yucatan and the West Gulf Coast will be a big inhibitor of potential formation. The overall setup is not necessarily unfavorable with fairly light wind shear and ridging to the north, but so far, there`s no indication of low level circulation or organization. NHC has lowered the chance of development to 10% over the next few days as it heads toward land with a west or northwest movement. As we`ve been mentioning, an increase in rain chances is expected Friday and Saturday as this wave approaches. NBM isn`t necessarily handling it the best, but have blended some guidance options to bring a general uptick in rain chances - 40-50% seems like a reasonable scenario at this time. Usually we`d consider if development does occur, more of the convection would remain south toward the circulation, but with this one, moisture likely spreads well north of any minimal circulation. Will throw out there that the NAM has developed a low level circulation and stronger winds before moving over land, but it is an outlier at this point with most guidance keeping an open wave. As far as rainfall totals, guidance as a whole, including ensemble runs have probs of anything over an inch in 24 hours quite low (<10%). That said, feel this may be a little underdone, and with the deep moisture profile, some areas with persistent convection could see totals over an inch. Though at this time we`re not expecting significant impacts from heavy rains. If winds are able to increase through the Bay of Campeche over the next 24-48 hours, could see a small increase in seas with wave heights of 4 to 5 feet. We would also be looking at an increase in rip currents should that occur. Will expect an increase in cloud cover and a decrease of a couple of degrees in afternoon highs for Fri/Sat. We`ll dry out into next week with temperatures warming back up. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the period with mostly clear skies across the region. There is a low chance for showers and storms over the VCT terminal tomorrow, therefore the decision was made to hold off including it in the TAFs. Otherwise, the gusty winds should come down over the next couple of hours before returning to around 20 knots tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Expect a moderate to gentle southeast breeze through the end of the week and into the weekend. We`ll see an increase in rain chances as a tropical wave moves through the Bay of Campeche with moisture stretching up toward the Texas coast. Chance for development of this wave are very low (10%). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 97 78 94 / 0 10 0 40 Victoria 77 98 76 96 / 20 20 0 40 Laredo 79 105 78 103 / 10 0 0 20 Alice 75 100 76 97 / 0 10 0 30 Rockport 81 93 81 93 / 0 10 0 40 Cotulla 79 104 77 102 / 10 10 0 10 Kingsville 75 97 76 95 / 0 10 0 40 Navy Corpus 82 92 82 91 / 0 0 0 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...NP/92