598
FXUS64 KCRP 211723
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1123 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Key Messages:

- Well below normal temperatures and cold wind chills continue
through Saturday.

-Chance of Drizzle today with more widespread light rain/drizzle
Saturday.

Very low chance of light freezing drizzle in the Brush country
tonight into early Saturday morning.

A robust low-lvl cloud deck remains in place over South Texas early
this morning, and this has kept overnight temperatures running on
the higher side of guidance. Giving this trend went ahead and
cancelled the freeze warning for the tier of zones closest to the
coast (i.e. inland Nueces, San Patricio etc.) where temperatures
have struggled to dip out of the lower 40s/upper 30s and thus think
the odds of freezing temperatures are very low. Also have doubts of
sub-freezing temperatures over the remainder of the area, but didn`t
quite have the confidence to cancel the warning at this time given
temperatures in the mid 30s.

Although temperatures have been running on the high side of guidance
overnight, expect this trend to reverse itself during the day as
weak warm advection aloft initiates, while the residual arctic
airmass remains stubbornly in place at the surface. This
configuration will strengthen the temperature inversion aloft (with
the base of the inversion also lowering), supporting a lowering
stratus deck. This setup typically (particularly this winter) favors
the hi-res raw guidance for temperatures, which handle the
"stubbornness" of the low-lvl cold dome better than the global and
bias-corrected guidance. Consequently went on the lower end of
guidance for todays temperature forecast, with forecast highs only
in the upper 30s and lower 40s (and even these could be a few
degrees too high over some interior areas). The weak isentropic
ascent and moistening BL may allow for some drizzle/sprinkles during
the day today, but suspect the lack of forcing combined with the dry
antecedent airmass will limit the chances of measurable
precipitation.

Tonight into Saturday the warm advection aloft, and associated
isentropic ascent will intensify, as  a coastal trough organizes to
our southwest. Consequently the chances for measurable rainfall will
increase, but given the shallow nature of the forcing suspect totals
will still largely amount to only a few hundredths of an inch. There
is a very low (<20%) chance of patchy freezing drizzle/light
freezing rain over portions of the Brush Country overnight, but once
again the presence of the low cloud deck gives me confidence most
locations will remain just above freezing. Given that today`s
pattern (cold airmass, pinned beneath a stout inversion) remains
more or less in place on Saturday, went with the lower end of
guidance for Saturday`s high temperatures with forecast highs only
in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered to numerous showers expected through Sunday morning.

- Low chance for thunderstorms this weekend.

- Warming trend begins Sunday and continues through middle of next
  week.

Back to back shortwave troughs from the Desert SW at the start of
the long-term period will slide across Texas through the remainder
of the weekend. At the surface, a developing low over Texas this
weekend will move offshore  and out over the Gulf. These
disturbances are expected to result in low to moderate chances for
rain showers over South Texas much of the weekend. There`s also a
low chance for thunderstorms. The highest chances for precip/thunder
will be over the eastern-most locales but chances taper off Sunday
from west to east as the low moves away from the Middle TX coast.
Then dry conditions are expected to prevail the remainder of the
period.

Temperatures: Ready for a warming trend? Expecting Sunday to be much
warmer and by Monday we should be back in the 70s across much of the
region with some 80s returning to locales west of the Coastal Bend.
Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week with widespread
80s across the region. Overnight lows see a similar trend and with a
return to lows in the 50s by Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

CIG restrictions will persist through the entire period as
moisture has begin it`s return into the region. Currently mainly
MVFR CIGS are noted and this is expected through the daytime
today. By tonight into tomorrow expect IFR and possibly some LIFR
conditions to develop. Chances for rain will also increase, mainly
for ALI and eastern sites. There is a very low probability of
freezing rain, tonight, but temperatures are more likely going to
remain above freezing. If any freezing drizzle/rain did occur, it
would likely be between ALI and COT sites, not at our main
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Northeast winds will become fresh to strong and seas will increase
to 6 to 8 feet today into Saturday as a weak coastal trough develops
over the SW Gulf. Consequently a Small Craft Advisory has been
issued for the bays through Saturday morning, and for the Gulf
waters through Saturday afternoon. The moderate to strong northeasterly
flow will diminish to weak to moderate northerly flow by Sunday.
Then, flow becomes weak by Monday before veering onshore. Our next
cold front late around mid-week next week, is expected to
increase and become a northerly flow for the rest of the period.
Small Craft Advisory conditions this weekend will give way to
Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions on Sunday. Then calmer
conditions prevail Monday. There`s a moderate to high chance for
showers over the waters this weekend through Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    41  37  43  43 /  20  40  60  50
Victoria          40  33  45  40 /  10  30  50  70
Laredo            39  34  43  41 /  20  40  30  20
Alice             39  34  41  40 /  30  50  60  40
Rockport          44  37  47  44 /  20  30  60  70
Cotulla           39  34  43  40 /  10  30  40  20
Kingsville        40  36  42  41 /  30  50  60  40
Navy Corpus       45  41  45  45 /  30  50  70  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ229>234-
     239>244-246-247.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ250-255-270-
     275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC/91
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...PH/83