258
FXUS64 KCRP 042328
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
628 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

- Hazardous beach conditions due to minor coastal flooding. A
  Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Monday morning.

- Dangerous swimming conditions this weekend with a HIGH risk of
  rip currents. Remember, "wave, yell, swim parallel!"

- Daily low (20-40%) chance of showers and storms through next
  work week. "When thunder roars, go indoors."

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A weak mid-level low over the Gulf/Louisiana coast will linger
through the weekend, sending occasional PVA across South Texas.
While this will provide some support for isolated convection,
subsidence from a mid-to-upper-level ridge to the west will limit
coverage. By early next week, this ridge will expand over the
southern and southeastern CONUS, becoming the dominant influence
on our regional weather pattern. However, rain chances will remain
present through next week as above normal moisture values will be
present, aided by the return of more tropical moisture as winds
become more southeasterly. This will support daily low to medium
(20-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms along the sea
breeze during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Marine and coastal impacts remain the primary concern over the
next several days. A combination of full moon astronomical tides,
increasing swell periods, and persistent northeasterly flow will
sustain an elevated rip current risk through at least the weekend
(high tonight, moderate Sunday and Sunday night). Minor coastal
flooding is already occurring during periods of high tide, with
water levels approaching the dunes. Beachgoers should continue to
use caution as these hazardous conditions will remain in place.

Temperatures will remain above normal across the region, with
highs in the low to mid-90s and overnight lows ranging from the
upper 60s inland to the mid-70s near the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across South Texas through the
forecast with the exception of occasional MVFR vsby between 10-14Z
at VCT/ALI and MVFR cigs between 11-16Z over the Rio Grande
Plains, potentially impacting LRD/COT. East-southeasterly winds
will become light and variable overnight, then return to 10-15
knots out of the east-southeast in the afternoon. There is a low
chance for showers tonight and tomorrow over the Coastal Plains,
with CRP the most at risk, but confidence is way too low to
include at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A moderate to fresh east-northeasterly breeze (BF 4-5) will
persist through Sunday morning. This uptick in winds will be
accompanied by elevated wave heights, with seas of 4-6 feet
expected through the overnight hours, creating SCEC and SCA
conditions. The SCA for the open waters generally north of Port
Aransas will continue until 1AM Sunday. The easterly wind
component, elevated seas, and long swell periods will continue to
lead to a HIGH rip current risk. With a full moon on October 6th,
astronomical high tides combined with the above mentioned features
have resulted in minor coastal flooding as well, with water
levels already reaching the dunes. Winds will decrease to a gentle
to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Sunday morning and shift back to an
east-southeasterly flow. Low (20-30%) rain and thunderstorm
chances remain in the forecast through Monday before increasing
to low to moderate (20-50%) rain chances beginning Tuesday into
the remainder of the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Moisture increases today through next work week with minimum
relative humidity above 30%. Although Energy Release Component
ranges from 50th-90th percentile, weak surface and 20 ft winds and
increased moisture will limit the fire risk. High temperatures will
continue to range from the low to mid 90s and daily low (20-40%)
shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through next Friday,
mainly along the coast and afternoon seabreeze over the Coastal
Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    72  89  73  90 /  10  10  10  10
Victoria          67  92  69  91 /   0  10  10  30
Laredo            70  94  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             68  93  70  94 /   0  10   0  10
Rockport          74  89  74  89 /  20  20  10  20
Cotulla           69  94  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        70  91  71  93 /   0  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       77  86  77  87 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ255-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...EMF/94