798
FXUS64 KCRP 121615 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1015 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Given the latest reflectivity across central/SE Texas, the latest
two runs of the NamNest had the best grasp of this morning`s
activity, so blended this in with the latest forecast to up the
PoP values across Victoria and Calhoun Counties. Most showers will
have pushed off with the boundary moving to the east my early
afternoon.

Additionally, the front has cleared quicker through the Victoria
Crossroads area. As such, we lowered highs and lows across this
area by two to five degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Key Messages:

- Marginal risk of severe weather through day-break over Victoria
  Crossroads.

- Very warm today, followed by much cooler conditions tonight and
  Thursday behind a front.

A Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms remains in place for
portions of the Victoria Crossroads early this morning. A few
storms could still become strong to severe over the next few hours
in response to the combination of a passing mid-level shortwave,
lift along a quasi-stationary boundary, and continuous moisture
convergence leading to increased instability. At the moment the
activity remains sub-severe with weak to moderate echoes on radar.
Now, if any strong storm is able to develop later this morning,
expect large hail and strong winds to be the primary concerns. We
will continue to monitor conditions for additional updates as the
threat shifts eastward.

Aside from that, expect some patchy fog and light rain through the
morning hours, followed by drier conditions through the afternoon
as the boundary pushes towards the coast. Rain chances though will
return by Thursday as an overrunning pattern develops over the
area.

In regards to the temperatures, expect very warm conditions today
as the CAA is not progged to arrive until the overnight hours.
Highs today are forecast to range from the upper 70s across the
east to the upper 80s out west. A few climatological records may
even be broken. Tonight, temperatures will cool into the low 40s
to mid 50s in the wake of the front. Isentropic lift will lead to
mostly cloudy skies on Thursday which will prevent temperatures
from warming too much. Highs tomorrow are forecast to range from
the low 50s up north to the low 60s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Key Messages:

- Temperatures roller coaster continues

A very active pattern continues through the long term period with
several shortwaves pushing across the region. The first wave Friday
night does not have a surface front associated with it, but a
coastal trough is expected to develop Thursday night into Friday
that will get kicked out with the aforementioned shortwave. We`ll see
an increase in moisture near the coast as a result of the coastal
trough, but rain chances are minimal, mainly confined to the gulf
waters. Saturday will feature much warmer temperatures as flow in
the low levels becomes south and southwest and then a dry line
pushes through. Expect highs in the 80s for much of the area.

The next front follows quickly, moving through Saturday night and
dropping temps 20-25 degrees for Sunday. Surface ridging shifts by
Monday night, setting up for a cold night, with lows in the 30s for
much of the area. A few locations north could approach freezing, but
this is still several days away, so will have some time to fine-
tune. Temperatures moderate into early next week and another robust
front is scheduled for mid-week. Despite the active weather, rain
chances remain minimal, with the only real potential noted at this
time being low PoPs east with the mid-week front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Poor aviation conditions across area terminals this morning with a
mixture of IFR to LIFR ceilings. A quasi-stationary front will
continue to lead to a few vicinity showers at VCT, and visibility
restrictions near COT. Conditions are forecast to improve around
mid to late morning with a general return to VFR by the afternoon.
VFR conditions will persist thereafter as the boundary shifts
southeastward through the period. Winds will be breezy this
morning at CRP, then become light in the afternoon as the boundary
approaches the area. The rest of the terminals will see light
winds through the day. The flow will shift offshore this evening
and increase overnight with gusts to 25-30 knots expected across
area sites by early Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Patchy sea fog and light rain can be expected along the coast
this morning. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through
the afternoon before shifting to the northeast tonight in the
wake of a cold front. A strong offshore flow will develop over the
coastal waters on Thursday with Small Craft Advisory Conditions
likely persisting through Friday morning. Weak to moderate onshore
flow will briefly resume Friday night into Saturday, but another
frontal boundary is expected to shift the winds offshore again
Saturday night. A strong offshore flow can be expected Sunday in
the wake of the front. There is a low to medium (30-60%) chance
for showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    85  50  59  48 /  30   0  10  10
Victoria          75  42  56  44 /  50   0  10   0
Laredo            89  50  57  45 /   0  10  30  20
Alice             87  49  57  44 /  10   0  10  10
Rockport          80  50  61  49 /  30   0  10  10
Cotulla           86  47  56  44 /   0   0  20  10
Kingsville        87  52  59  46 /  20   0  10  10
Navy Corpus       78  52  60  52 /  30   0  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...JSL/86