582
FXUS64 KCRP 192317
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
617 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Abundant moisture is currently in place over much of South Texas
combined with low-level instability is resulting in scattered
showers this afternoon. More showers are expected to fire up
further west along the seabreeze and along any outflow boundaries
from other storms in the region as shown on KCRP radar. Have
increased chances for showers to around 25% for the rest of today
and tomorrow. Overnight periods expected to be dry with streamer
showers offshore that may push onshore during the morning hours.

The Heat Advisory remains in place through early this evening
with afternoon heat indices already reaching 110 in Kingsville and
approaching 110 at other sites within the Heat Advisory. Showers
have helped to push back against higher values but we still have a
few hours of heating so not confident enough to cancel anything
but will monitor for now. Surface temperatures tomorrow will be
similar but should come in at least one degree cooler, so a Heat
Advisory will likely not be needed but will let the overnight
shift re-evaluate.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate Risk of heat-related impacts this weekend, minor to
  moderate risk next week

Not much change from the last few previous forecast packages. Mid to
upper level ridging will continue through the weekend before an
upper trough digs across the Four Corners region early next week
ejecting a cold front into Texas. Although ridging is expected this
weekend, will hold on to low (15-25%) chances for rain each
afternoon as sufficient low level moisture interacts with the sea
breeze. While this front is expected to stall north of our CWA next
week, moisture pooling up ahead of the stalled front will increase
our rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday with a low to medium (20-45%)
chance of widespread showers across the region. Near normal
temperatures are expected tomorrow afternoon ranging from the lower
to the upper 90s. Overnight lows will also remain near normal with
lows ranging front the lower to upper 70s.

Coastal flooding will once again be a concern across the Gulf facing
beaches of South Texas this weekend and into early next week. Models
are showing 8 to 9 second swell periods returning to the region
increasing water levels to 1.7-1.9 feet above mean sea level. If
this verifies, there will be a low chance for coastal flooding with
beach inundation up to 1 foot during times of high tide.

Lastly, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of low
pressure across the Northwest Caribbean. There is a medium (40%)
chance of development over the next 7 days as this system drifts
north-northwest towards the Southeast Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Isolated showers will continue for a few more hours this evening,
mainly over the Brush Country and Coastal Plains. Have a mention
of VCSH over LRD as a few small showers continue to linger over
the area. While slightly drier than the last few days, would not
be surprised to see some patchy fog over the Victoria Crossroads
and, to a lesser extent, the Coastal Plains so have included a
mention of LIFR and MVFR visibility for VCT and ALI, respectively.
By midday, expect showers to redevelop across the Coastal Plains
and Brush Country, so have PROB30 for ALI and CRP. This may need
to be added to VCT but have left this out due to low confidence.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Weak to at times moderate onshore flow will continue into early next
week. There is a moderate (up to 30-40%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend. Weak to moderate onshore flow
is expected this weekend into next week. Low (15-25%) chances for
rain this weekend will increase to a medium (30-60%) chance next
week as a cold front stalls north of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  91  78  90 /  10  40  10  20
Victoria          75  95  73  94 /   0  10   0  10
Laredo            78  96  77  96 /  10  20   0  10
Alice             77  95  76  92 /  20  40   0  30
Rockport          80  93  79  91 /  10  30  10  10
Cotulla           78  98  78  97 /  10  20   0  10
Kingsville        77  92  77  91 /  10  30   0  30
Navy Corpus       81  88  81  87 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...LS/77