Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
198 FXUS64 KCRP 072329 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 629 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 618 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 - Potential for hazardous beach conditions due to minor coastal increase late in the week. Medium to high chance advisories will be needed, especially Thursday and Friday. - Low (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms daily through Thursday, mainly in the Coastal Bend and Coastal PLains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 While we keep a steady flow of moist east to southeasterly low level flow into the area the next couple of days, mid-levels remain dominated by a meandering ridge of high pressure. This keeps us generally quiet, but with a seasonal 20% chance of showers and a few storms daily, mainly in the Coastal Bend and into the Coastal Plains. By the weekend, a drier airmass moves into the region and is expected to end the already small rain chances. We could see a weak surface boundary move through with this drier airmass, but as with the last one, noticeable change will be minimal. Will indicate a decrease in overnight low temperatures regardless of frontal passage as at least marginally drier air filters in. Regarding the area of interest in the currently tropical outlook with disorganized convection, it remains a very low chance for development (10%) and even if it were to develop should remain in the Bay of Campeche. The one other thing to really touch on here is coastal flooding potential. It`s a complicated situation as we move away from the full moon period and wave periods are showing a decreasing trend. For today, continuing to lean toward water not reaching high enough to have any substantial impacts, but guidance does indicate an uptick later in the week. Will continue to watch cameras and will be a late decision if an advisory becomes necessary today. One thing to note though for the remainder of the week is flow becomes more northwesterly, and at times stronger which does tend to give us a higher run-up. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Scattered showers continue this afternoon across the Brush Country to the Rio Grande. Therefore have included a TEMPO to address brief light showers for ALI and LRD and VCSH for COT through 02Z. There are scattered showers north of VCT, that are moving southward, but am expecting them to diminish before getting to VCT. If a shower does move across the VCT site, it will be brief with minimal aviation impacts. The chance of showers overnight and Wednesday are below 20%. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light and variable winds overnight and east to southeast Wednesday afternoon with a few gusts up to 20KT. && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 A gentle to moderate onshore breeze (BF 3-4) tonight, will shift back northeasterly Wednesday, strengthening to a moderate to fresh breeze (BF 4-5), becoming fresh to strong (BF 5-6) Thursday through Friday morning. Low to moderate (20-50%) shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast through Thursday. Very low rain chances of 10- 20% close out the rest of the week as drier air filters in. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 RH values remain moderate through the end of the week (>30%) with light to moderate winds. A weak boundary moving into the area Saturday could bring briefly low RH values below 30% for Saturday, but mainly weak winds are expected at that time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 90 74 89 / 10 10 10 20 Victoria 70 94 70 93 / 10 10 0 10 Laredo 73 95 73 93 / 10 20 10 10 Alice 72 94 71 93 / 10 10 0 20 Rockport 75 90 75 89 / 10 10 10 20 Cotulla 73 95 73 95 / 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 73 91 72 90 / 10 20 10 30 Navy Corpus 78 87 78 86 / 10 20 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...TE/81