573
FXUS64 KCRP 310717
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
117 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1257 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

North to northwesterly flow will continue through today as high
pressure builds in from the west. High temperatures today will be
in the low 70s along the coast to around 80 over the Brush
Country. Moisture will remain low today, with relative humidity
values in the teens out west. Fortunately, light winds will
mitigate fire weather concerns. Caution should be used with any
sparks or flames as burn bans are still in effect across much of
our area. Conditions will be much the same for Saturday as for
today, though the high pressure will slide to the east resulting
in light onshore flow by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1257 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Key Messages:

- Much above normal temperatures for Sunday through Friday.

The weather itself will be rather quiet through the days 3-7
forecast period. However, there are a few things to keep an eye on
during the upcoming week. First is the warm temperatures. Despite a
slow moving somewhat dry 500 mb cut off low to the west of South
Texas, the 500 mb pattern in the continental US goes from weak
troughing in the Central Plains to weak ridging by Monday. The weak
ridging becomes flat (zonal), for the most part through the rest of
the week. The ridging/zonal flow for most of the week, will help to
have much above normal (10-15) high temperatures. The normal highs
during the week are 67 at VCT, 70 at CRP, and 72 at LRD. The
second thing to watch is the low to mid level moisture that streams
north from the RGV into the Brush Country around Monday
night/Tuesday. As the 500 mb low meanders to the east, south of BRO,
or west of MTM (Tampico), depending which model you choose. The
soundings show a bit of a capping inversion, but is mainly at night
allowing the moisture to pool at night, producing a very low (5%)
chance for drizzle in the Brush Country. This is a far cry from a
few days ago, when the forecast looked wet. The third thing will be
at the end of the forecast (Fri), which is a trough that moves in
from the Pacific, and depending on the model, (GFS or ECMWF) rain
and cooler temperatures are trending.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of
the period. Some patchy fog development will remain possible
tonight along the eastern TAF sites due to some lingering
moisture though potential for this is low(ALI,CRP,VCT). Winds will
be light through majority of the period across most sites. The
eastern TAF sites will likely gust around 20 knots tomorrow
afternoon/evening. This should return to light and variable by
tomorrow evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1257 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Weak to occasionally moderate northwesterly flow will turn to the
north then northeast tonight through Saturday. Weak southeast
flow Saturday night will continue to veer to the south by Sunday.
The south flow, for the rest of the week, will be weak to
moderate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  46  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          75  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            78  47  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             76  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          73  50  69  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           79  45  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        76  45  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       70  51  67  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....JSL/86
AVIATION...NP/92