338
FXUS64 KCRP 221136
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
636 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Key Messages:

- Low rain chances today, and low to medium tonight through
  Wednesday.

Rain chances across South Texas will be low today (<20%) with the
convective activity remaining mostly isolated due to the lack of
forcing. By tonight into Wednesday though, rain and thunderstorm
chances increase to medium (30-50%) in response to a passing mid-
level disturbance combining with the available moisture to produce
scattered activity across the area. Rainfall accumulations will
however remain minimal and generally less than a half an inch, with
low flooding concerns at this time. Patchy fog early this morning is
forecast to lift by the mid-morning hours. Fog potential for tonight
into Wednesday morning will remain low. Overall, expect above normal
temperatures to continue through Wednesday with highs in the low 80s
to mid 90s, and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Key Messages:

- Low chance for showers and thunderstorms across the Rio Grande Plains
  and northern Coastal Plains Thursday afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures through early next week.

Another mid-level shortwave will move across south central Texas
Thursday bringing a low (15-35%) chance for showers and storms
Thursday afternoon.  The atmosphere dries out and heats up for the
remainder of the long term period as a ridge builds across the
region.

Above normal temperatures are expected throughout the period
especially over the weekend into early next week with triple digit
highs out west ranging to the upper 80s over the Victoria
Crossroads.  Overnight stratus will give way to afternoon sunshine
each day with breezy conditions developing by the weekend as the
low level jet strengthens.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Patchy fog has developed across portions of the Coastal Plains
this morning leading to MVFR/IFR conditions at ALI/VCT sites.
Mostly MVFR conditions will prevail through the morning hours
across all terminals, before lifting to VFR levels by early
afternoon. A return to a mixture of MVFR/IFR is expected again
tonight at all sites. Winds will be light out of the east to
southeast this morning, before increasing to around 15-20 knots
this afternoon. Winds will become light again late this evening
out of the southeast. Isolated to scattered showers and storms
may develop this afternoon impacting primarily the western
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

A light to gentle breeze (BF 2-3) this morning will increase to a
moderate breeze (BF 4) by this afternoon. Expect a generally
moderate onshore breeze (BF 4) to then persist over the waters
through the remainder of the week, leading to periods of Small
Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Onshore winds will increase
early next week (BF 4-5) with Small Craft Advisory conditions
developing over the bays and Gulf waters. Expect low to at times
medium rain chances today through Wednesday (20-35%).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

20 ft winds and minimum RH values are not expected to exceed
thresholds during the remainder of the week, but may approach
thresholds early next week. ERC values across much of the region
looks to remain below the 55th percentile, so no elevated or
critical fire weather is expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    85  71  84  72 /  10  20  20   0
Victoria          85  70  84  71 /  30  30  50   0
Laredo            94  72  91  73 /  20  40  20  20
Alice             90  70  88  71 /  20  20  20  10
Rockport          83  73  83  73 /  20  20  30   0
Cotulla           93  72  91  73 /  20  40  30  10
Kingsville        87  71  86  71 /  20  20  20   0
Navy Corpus       81  73  81  73 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....JM/75
AVIATION...ANM/88