541
FXUS64 KCRP 231116
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
516 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Key Messages:

- Much warmer today and Monday!

The inverted trough that brought in our chilly rain yesterday will
continue to move offshore today as a mid-level trough swings
east through north Texas, ending rain chances through midday.
Clouds will begin to clear and we will actually get to see some
sunshine today, leading to high temperatures in the 60s and
low-70s.

Lows will once again be chilly overnight as high pressure builds
in tonight. The combination of clear skies, calm winds, and wet
soils will contribute to patchy fog development tonight over the
Coastal Plains. Fog is expected to lift by midday Monday and even
warmer temperatures are expected with highs in the 70s to around
80 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Key Messages:

- Dry conditions and a warming trend expected through much of next
  week.

- Weak frontal passage forecast for Thursday.

We start out the long-term period with weak onshore flow and
unseasonably warm temperatures. Tuesday and Wednesday will be among
the warmer days of the forecast period with afternoon highs up to
around 10 degrees warmer than normal topping out in the mid 70s to
80s across the region. Cooler on Thursday behind a front with highs
in the 70s, then warmer this weekend as Warm Air Advection from
onshore flow Saturday and Sunday bring temperatures to above normal.
Overnight lows begin the period in the mid 40s to 50s, gradually
warm up about 5-10 degrees mid-week, then dip down to the low 40s to
50s Thursday night behind the front before warming to the 60s by the
end of the period.

Meanwhile, a trough dropping down out of the Pacific NW will send
the aforementioned weak cold front southward across our CWA
Thursday. This will be a dry front followed by a shortwave this
weekend. The GEF`s ensemble mean has PWATs dropping from around 1
inch to roughly half an inch after the front moves through
Thursday.

A surface high builds over the area behind Thursday`s front and
thankfully this air mass is much warmer than the last one. Onshore
flow returns Friday as the high moves offshore and east of us.
PWATs will increase through the end of the week to near or above
normal. Accompanied by a shortwave and some PVA that stretches
across much of the CONUS. Have opted to maintain silent PoPs due
to the weak forcing and limited moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

IFR/LIFR ceilings this morning will gradually lift to MVFR, then
VFR between 17Z-21Z. VFR conditions are then expected until late
tonight when IFR/LIFR visibility is expected to develop over the
Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Winds will be generally weak to moderate today, however, wave
heights will remain elevated into this afternoon. A Small Craft
Advisory will remain in place over the coastal waters through this
afternoon, when seas are expected to subside. There is a low to
moderate (20-60%) chance of showers today over the waters, with
chances diminishing from west to east through the afternoon. Weak
onshore flow Monday night will increase to weak to moderate late
Tuesday. A weak cold front moving southward will move across the
waters Thursday resulting in a weak to moderate northeasterly flow
before veering onshore Friday through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    63  42  71  49 /  10   0   0   0
Victoria          61  41  71  46 /  20   0   0   0
Laredo            71  43  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             65  40  76  47 /  10   0   0   0
Rockport          60  46  63  52 /  10   0   0   0
Cotulla           70  41  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        65  40  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       59  49  64  54 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ250-
     255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...LS/77