346
FXUS64 KCRP 262319
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
519 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 133 PM CST Tue Nov 26
2024

Cool temperatures in the wake of a cold front have been the story
today, along with some widespread low and mid level clouds. An
abrupt change is in store for tomorrow as return flow begins
tonight with breezy southerly winds expected Wednesday afternoon.
With the return of moisture overnight, fog will likely develop
and be potentially dense at times. There is around a 40 percent
chance of visibilities below 1 mile for areas from near Beeville
to Kingsville and around a 20 percent chance for most other
locations, including Corpus Christi and Victoria.

The fog should be largely dissipated by 10 AM and temperatures
will quickly rise, even with some widespread cloud cover. Look for
highs Wednesday in the mid and upper 80s with southerly winds
around 10 to 15 mph, strongest near the coast.

Winds become light Wednesday night with lows dropping into the 50s
and 60s as the next cold front begins to move through the area
near sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday Night) Issued at 133 PM CST Tue Nov
26 2024

Key Messages:

- Much cooler weather late this week and into the weekend
- Rain as we head into next week?

Thursday starts with a cold front passing through the forecast area,
with the main sfc trough offshore by 12z/Thu. Latest keep the
precipitation north of Matagorda Bay along the Upper Texas Coast.
NBM keeps the 20-30% chances well out on the edge of our offshore
waters. So a dry day, with temperatures struggling to get to 70 as
the clouds from the cool air pushing in, and the low level moisture
(sfc-850) moving in behind the front, clouds will cover the region.
Once the cool air has spread across the Southern Plains, the sfc
high will begin to move east on Friday. While Friday starts cloudy
to partly sunny, the dry air from the north begins to mix out the
moisture and we get back into very weak return flow. HOwever, the
temperatures look to remain in the 60s everywhere. Rain shower
chances remain at 20% or below through Friday, but begin to increase
to 20-30% in the offshore waters by Saturday. The weak return flow
look to be enough to get the highs back around 70almost everywhere
in the forecast area. Sunday through the early part of the next
week, a coastal low forms down by Tampico, with an inverted trough
that points up the Rio Grande Valley. South Texas will be on the
north side of the low which will increase the moisture from around
the 0.6-1.0" PWAT to around 1.5" PWAT over the region. With the
moisture and the sfc low, the chances for rain increase Sunday
through Tuesday, with 35-50% chances expected over the land, and 55-
65% chances over the water.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Generally VFR conditions will begin this TAF cycle, with only
brief MVFR ceilings across the Brush Country remaining. A low
stratus deck is likely to develop tonight between 06Z and 09Z,
leading to a return of MVFR ceilings over much of the area The
return of low-level moisture and dry air aloft, combined with
very light winds is likely to result in dense fog over large
portions of South Texas, reduced visibility as early as 07Z-09Z.
IFR/LIFR visibility and ceilings are expected between 09Z-17Z at
most terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 133 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Winds will flip around to the south and increase overnight with
moderate southerly flow expected Wednesday into Wednesday night,
though conditions are expected to stay below SCA levels. Winds
will then strengthen late Thursday into Friday to moderate to
strong flow, with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Winds
will gradually weaken and shift back to the east and southeast
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    60  85  63  73 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          54  84  57  70 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            59  85  59  72 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             56  87  59  74 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          61  82  61  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           57  84  58  72 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        59  87  62  74 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       64  80  66  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLM
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...LS/77