593
FXUS64 KCRP 231125
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
625 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM

- Major to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts continue into next
week with peak afternoon heat indices around 110

- Daily elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

High pressure continues near the Four Corners region, shifting
slightly to the south/southeast through the week. This will keep our
days very hot and dry through the middle of the week. Guidance
continues to come in lower than expected for the next few days, so
have blended the NBM with the most recent maxT observations. This
increased the forecast temperatures to closer values to what we have
been seeing. With these higher forecast values, elected to issue a
Heat Advisory for today from noon to 8 PM. Winds will also be fairly
light today, which will lead to a moderate to high WetBulb Globe
Temperature today. This will be especially important for those
working outside to consider: spend a maximum of 2 hours outdoor,
with at least 4 breaks per hour. Remember to stay hydrated, check
those backseats, and avoid long exposure in these temperatures. For
more information be sure to check out weather.gov/heatsafety.

Late next week, guidance is hinting at the potential for a
disturbance to sneak around the eastern periphery of the ridge. This
could combine with some returning moisture to provide some relief.
We will keep our fingers crossed, but this is still far enough out
that we are not holding our breath.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Not much change in overall forecast. VFR conditions will prevail
through much of the TAF cycle with the exception of MVFR
conditions at ALI and VCT briefly this morning and again Monday
morning. S-SE 10-15 knots gusting to around 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Light to moderate (BF 2-4) onshore breezes will continue through the
period, with occasional fresh (BF 5) breezes possible during the
late afternoon/evening hours, especially south of Port Aransas. Seas
are expected to remain around 2-3 feet. Rain chances will remain
near zero through the middle of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

ERC values are in the 75-89th percentile, with low humidity, dry to
critically dry fuels, and hot temperatures, leading to elevated fire
weather conditions over the Brush Country and portions of the
Coastal Plains. Conditions will need to be closely monitored as a
few locations across the Brush Country could even see critical fire
weather conditions into next week. Considered an RFD for today;
however, the winds should remain low enough to forego this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    99  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria         104  76 103  76 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo           107  77 106  77 /   0   0   0   0
Alice            104  74 104  74 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          92  80  92  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          105  75 105  76 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville       103  74 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       91  81  91  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ230>234-241>247-342>344-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...TE/81