480
FXUS64 KCRP 141845
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
145 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Major to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts through Wednesday,
then lowering to a moderate to major risk the latter half of the
week.

- Heat Advisory in effect through 7 PM today.

- Low rain chances today through Wednesday, then increasing to a
medium chance the latter half of the week.

- Elevated Fire Weather conditions remain possible through
  Tuesday, mainly across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A few showers and storms today, but mainly just a stray
shower/storm. Satellite trends not showing a low inland with the sea
breeze today, but recent history makes it hard to say there`s no
chance.  Thus have a 20% chance along the seabreeze for the
afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of the afternoon will feature hot
temps similar to the past several days. Heat advisory remains in
effect through the afternoon and a few sites have reached advy
criteria as of early afternoon.

Overall picture with high pressure in place remains. The ridge
center is north of the area with a few short waves rotating east to
west under the ridge. For Tuesday into Wednesday moisture levels
look too low to warrant more than low PoPs (mainly Tuesday).
Moisture levels will increase though Thursday - topping over 2",
even 2.25" along the coast which is pushing PoPs up in some models,
including the NBM.  Feel though that some guidance may be a bit too
excited, and have capped PoPs over land closer to 50%. Expect
scattered showers and storms, but not a widespread rain out day.
Also, rainfall totals are not expected to be impressive.
Probabilities of greater than 0.1" are pretty good along the coast,
but when you look at greater than 0.5", they are near zero. Even a
little rain is better than none, though!

Hot temperatures are expected again on Tuesday, but deep moisture
decreases quite a bit and as a result of mixing, surface RH will
also decrease more efficiently than today, so we`re only borderline
on a heat advisory tomorrow. It may be necessary, but confidence
isn`t there at the moment. As we head toward Wednesday and Thursday
we should see at least a bit of relief from the upper 90s and temps
over 100, but unless showers/storms persist over an area on
Thursday, would still expect near to slightly above normal temps.
Low temperatures will decrease a bit late in the period with drier
air moving in. High temps return to above 100 west and in the mid
and upper 90s east for the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A few showers/storms noted around the VCT terminal this afternoon.
This should slow down in the next couple of hours with mainly VFR
conditions expected at all sites through the afternoon and
evening. Have kept VFR conditions through the night, but a brief
period of MVFR CIGS is not out of the question for any site, just
too low probs to include. Gusty winds continue once again this
afternoon into the evening (west).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A fresh (BF 5) breeze is expected south of Port Aransas across
Corpus Christi and Baffin Bays and out to 20 nautical miles once
again this afternoon. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in the
bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas through this
evening. Otherwise, a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow is
expected through the upcoming week. A few showers and storms are
possible over the waters today. Rain chances increase to medium to
high Wednesday through Friday, then decrease again for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  98  79  97 /   0   0   0  20
Victoria          77  99  76 100 /  10   0  10  30
Laredo            78 105  77 104 /  10   0   0  10
Alice             76 102  75 100 /   0   0   0  20
Rockport          82  94  81  94 /   0   0  10  20
Cotulla           77 104  76 103 /  10   0   0  10
Kingsville        77 100  76  99 /   0   0   0  20
Navy Corpus       82  93  82  93 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ230>234-240>247-
     342>344-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...PH/83