748
FXUS64 KCRP 181118
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
618 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Key Messages:

- High risk of rip currents through Saturday night

- Minor coastal flooding expected through Saturday night

Temperatures today and Saturday will be much like yesterday with
afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in
the 60s. Moderate to strong, generally easterly flow will
continues allowing low- level moisture to return slowly to the
area. A very low (<20%) chance of showers will be possible late
today and tonight as a shortwave tracks along the northern
portions of the area. Another weak shortwave will move across the
area Saturday afternoon, which will lead to a low (10-20%) chance
of showers.

Minor coastal flooding and high risk of rip currents will continue
through Saturday night. Water levels are expected to reach the
dunes during periods of high tide. Notably, the levels have been
slow to recede. P-ETSS continues to indicate levels reaching a bit
above 2.5 ft MSL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor coastal Flooding and moderate to high rip current risk
expected to continue into early next week.

Main hazards expected for the upcoming week continues to be minor
coastal flooding and moderate to high risk of dangerous rip
currents. Confidence is moderate (40-60%) that these conditions will
occur due to projected swells around 8 to 9 seconds combined with a
moderate to strong easterly wind across the gulf and astronomically
high tides through Monday. The P-ETSS is indicating tide levels
reaching 2.5ft above MSL Sunday and Monday. Conditions are expected
to improve beginning Tuesday when winds and swells are progged to
subside.

Otherwise, S TX will see a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms Sunday, then drier with a gradual warming trend
through the middle of next week. Models prog mid level low pressure
to be northwest of TX with high pressure over the NW Gulf of Mexico,
placing S TX under a southwest flow aloft by Sunday. The low
pressure to the northwest will lead to deepening surface low along
the rockies, which will result in a tight gradient along the TX
coast. This will lead to moderate to strong generally east winds
which will usher deeper moisture into S TX. PWATs are progged to
increase to around 1.5 inches which is slightly above normal for
this time of year. The increased moisture combined with an embedded
short wave aloft will bring a low (10-20%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday, mainly across the southern portions of the
CWA where the moisture is deepest. High pressure then builds back
across S TX, bringing drier mid levels across the region by early
next week. As a result, temperatures will be on the increase and
rain chances will drop below 10% through Thursday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

East to southeasterly winds will continue today, with wind gusts
20 to 25 knots this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected through
the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

A moderate to strong generally east flow can be today through
Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the northern
waters tonight through Saturday afternoon. With strong winds
continuing through Sunday, Small Craft Advisories may be extended.
Winds will become a moderate east to southeast flow beginning
Monday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be
Saturday through Sunday, followed by drier conditions by Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    84  70  84  72 /  10  10  20  10
Victoria          84  63  85  61 /  10   0  20   0
Laredo            84  70  87  69 /  10  10  10   0
Alice             85  67  86  68 /  10   0  20   0
Rockport          84  73  83  70 /  10  10  20  10
Cotulla           85  68  86  68 /  10   0  10   0
Kingsville        85  68  86  71 /  10  10  20   0
Navy Corpus       82  75  82  75 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ245-342>347-
     442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday
     for GMZ255-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...LS/77