Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
675 FXUS64 KCRP 072258 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 558 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 540 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 - Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts across mainly western portions of South Texas through early next week. - Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms area wide by mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Very little change in the forecast with respect to the heat this weekend into early next week and a return of storms the middle of next week. The main concern continues to be the heat. A strong ridge in the mid and upper levels draped across S TX, will result in temperatures being around 5 degrees above normal. The high temperatures combined with the humidity will bring a major to extreme risk of heat related impacts across the Coastal Plains, Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains Sunday through Tuesday. DESI shows a very low <20% chance of the apparent temperature reaching 110 across the Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains, thus leading to a lower confidence in the need for Heat Advisories. Confidence is high that a few locations will briefly reach around 110, but if heat indices of 110 or higher becomes more widespread and more than a couple of hours, then a Heat Advisory may be warranted. Will continue to monitor trends for these conditions. The heat indices/apparent temperatures across the Victoria Crossroads are expected to remain below 110 through much of the period. Rain chances increase beginning Tuesday as the upper ridge retreats southwestward, in response to a mid level trough of low pressure tracking southeastward toward S TX. This will allow moisture advection into the region with PWATs increasing to around 1.8 inches. Latest model runs show the trough moving across S TX Wed-Fri timeframe. The highest chance will be Wed with PoPs around 30 percent along the Rio Grande to 50 percent along the Coastal Bend and 60 percent across the Victoria Crossroads. Thursday afternoon will begin to see a gradual decrease in rain chances as the upper trough slowly moves east. Rain chances will be low (10-20%) by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 540 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle, though a TEMPO for MVFR ceilings from 08Z-12Z is included for ALI. Breezy conditions will diminish overnight before increasing once again around 14Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore breeze can be expected tonight through next week. Rain chances return Tuesday with around 30 chance of showers and thunderstorms, increasing to around 50 percent Wednesday. Rain chances decrease by next weekend to 20-30 percent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 94 80 94 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 77 95 78 95 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 78 104 79 105 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 77 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 82 91 82 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 78 105 78 105 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 82 90 83 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...LS/77