980
FXUS64 KCRP 021757
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1257 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

- Daily moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts. Near heat
  advisory criteria through Monday.

- Low to moderate chances for storms east today. Low chances
  Victoria Crossroads into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Have issued a heat advisory for this afternoon. A few sites have
just topped 110, and a few others close to reaching as of mid-day.
The result of today will likely drive the decision for issuing
an advisory for tomorrow as well, with conditions expected to be
very similar. One concern for this afternoon is if showers/storms
develop in the Victoria Crossroads develop before peak heating is
reached, we could fall a bit short. On that note, abundant
moisture (PWAT values over 2 inches from Victoria northward), and
a boundary sagging through central Texas will give us a chance for
showers and storms this afternoon into the evening, primarily
in the Victoria Crossroads, but boundaries (sea breeze, outflow,
frontal) could trigger convection farther south and inland as
well. Have moderate PoPs in the Victoria Crossroads (30-40) with
low (20) elsewhere. The showers that do develop though would be
efficient rain producers with the deep moisture, and could produce
brief downpours. Instability is limited and should limit any
strong to severe convection.

For the rest of the week, precip chances will be low, with just an
isolated sea breeze shower or storm along the sea breeze through
the first part of the week. Chances are low enough (<15%) to not
include mention in the forecast at this time.

The heat remains cranked up especially through Monday when heat
index values will flirt with 110, especially in the Coastal Plains
where humidity will be highest. High temps through Monday will
range from the upper 90s to around 105. For mid and late week we
should drop a couple of degrees off that, but remain at or above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Think mostly VFR conditions will remain in place through the
period. Have not included any mention of fog for Sunday morning.
The one concern is the potential for convection this
afternoon/evening. The better chance will be for the VCT area and
have a tempo there for thunderstorms for a few hours. Other sites
can`t be ruled out, but chances too low to include in TAF at this
point.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Onshore flow remains gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) through the
weekend and into early next week. There is a low (10-15%) chance
of showers and thunderstorms over most of the waters today
increasing to (25-40%) Sunday through the first half of the
week, mainly over the northern waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  99  77  98 /  10  10   0  10
Victoria          75  99  76  97 /  30  20  10  40
Laredo            79 106  79 107 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             75 103  75 101 /  20  10   0  10
Rockport          80  93  81  92 /  20  10  10  10
Cotulla           80 105  79 105 /  20   0   0  10
Kingsville        75 100  75  98 /  10  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       80  92  81  91 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-241>244-246-
     247.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...PH/83