Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
571 FXUS64 KCRP 071109 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 509 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 505 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 - Warm conditions expected heading into the weekend - Several impactful hazards before and after a strong cold front Sunday morning: potential coastal flooding, fire, marine, and cold - Critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon across South Texas, elevated fire weather conditions continue into next midweek && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 Warm conditions can be expected again today and into the weekend ahead of a strong cold front. This cold front will move into the region Sunday morning leading to elevated winds and drier conditions across the area through the middle part of next week. Winds are expected be around 25 to 30 mph with gust potentially to gale conditions. Guidance is hinting at about a 40-50% chance for gale conditions Sunday night into Monday. There is also potential for minor coastal flooding this weekend leading up to the front, though confidence is low at this time In regards to the drier conditions, we can expect fire weather will likely be a concern as winds are expected to increase Sunday and relative humidity values plummet. This will lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions Sunday and Monday. Winds are expected to gradually decrease Monday though with relative humidity values remaining very low, fire weather concerns are expected to linger at least until midweek. Lastly with the front creeping in bringing drier conditions, the region will likely experience efficient radiational cooling Monday night into Tuesday morning with winds calming. This is expected to lead to lows in the mid to upper 30s across much of the region with 40s and 50s closer to the coast. A gradual warming trend can be expected there after to close out the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 505 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 Brief periods of MVFR conditions can be expected this morning at ALI and VCT for reduced visibilities due to fog. The eastern sites will join the western sites within VFR conditions by mid- morning and remain there for most of the TAF cycle. Models are showing medium chances for dense fog tomorrow morning from 09-14z across the eastern sites, mainly ALI and VCT. Due to this being in the tail end of the forecast, opted not to include in the TAFs at this time. We will evaluate future model runs and add the reduced visibilities to the TAFs if needed. && .MARINE... Issued at 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 Southwest gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) is expected to continue through Saturday night. A strong cold front will push through Sunday morning, bringing strong to near Gale force (BF 6-7) north to northeasterly winds in its wake through Monday morning. Seas in the wake of the front will also build significantly to 10-15 feet. There`s a low chance of showers and thunderstorms along the front on Sunday. Conditions are expected to improve by late Monday afternoon with seas subsiding below 7 feet and winds diminishing below 20 knots. Generally, moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) south to southeasterly winds will follow into the middle of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 A strong cold front will push across South Texas Sunday morning, creating elevated to critical fire weather conditions in its wake Sunday afternoon. Northerly sustained winds of 20-25 mph with relative humidity dropping to around 20 percent, will cause a significant increase in the fire weather risk. Although winds decrease during the work week, minimum relative humidity values will continue to drop into the teens (Mon) and 20s (Tue-Wed), keeping at least elevated fire weather conditions intact through the middle of next week each afternoon. In addition, Energy Release Component (ERC) values are extremely high, ranging from the 80-95th percentile. Sunday will be the greatest threat for fire weather, with still warranted elevated conditions following into midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 89 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 89 61 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 94 60 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 93 60 93 62 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 83 69 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 95 58 93 62 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 91 61 91 63 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 82 70 83 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NP/92 AVIATION...JCP/84