Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
190 FXUS64 KCRP 251138 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 638 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 627 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 - NHC has maintained a 10% chance of tropical development for a system in the northern Gulf. Heavy rainfall is the primary threat with this system. - WPC has included portions of South Texas in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for today through Saturday. - Generally moderate heat risk across South Texas through next week. A few locations across the Brush Country will have a major risk with max heat indices around 110 at times. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 NHC has maintained a 10% chance of tropical cyclone development for the system over the central Gulf. Heavy rainfall with high rainfall rates are the greatest threats with this system as it moves ashore tonight. WPC has expended the Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall further south, including the eastern portion of Kleberg County and as far west as Live Oak county. They have also extended the marginal risk in time from today through 12Z Sunday. Rainfall rates of 2+ inches remains possible this afternoon through early Sunday. Models have continued to keep most of the precipitation over the areas included by the Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall. However, guidance indicates that the anomalous moisture (PWAT values 2.3- 2.5") will push further west than previous runs. This will coincide with higher vorticity values from the tropical disturbance which may lead to increase chances of rain further west than previously forecast. Based on this, have increased PoPs to a low to medium (20- 50%) chance across the west later today and tonight. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Some patchy to dense fog has developed this morning leading to MVFR to LIFR visibilities and ceilings over a couple of the eastern terminals (VCT and ALI). This is expected to linger through mid-morning before returning to VFR conditions briefly. Expect coverage of showers and thunderstorms to increase predominately over the eastern terminals this afternoon. This will likely lead to MVFR to IFR conditions with periods of LIFR possible with the heavier activity through the evening. Western sites will likely remain VFR with winds around 10 to 20 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeast breezes will continue tonight through Monday, with a more moderate breeze tonight through Saturday as a tropical disturbance moves across the area. The tropical disturbance will bring a moderate (50-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over the waters this afternoon through Sunday morning. Winds will decrease Monday night to a light to occasionally moderate (BF 2-4) flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 76 92 78 / 20 50 40 10 Victoria 92 75 91 76 / 70 50 50 10 Laredo 103 78 99 77 / 20 40 20 10 Alice 96 75 95 76 / 30 50 40 10 Rockport 89 78 90 82 / 50 60 40 10 Cotulla 101 78 98 78 / 20 20 30 10 Kingsville 93 75 93 77 / 30 40 30 10 Navy Corpus 88 78 89 82 / 40 60 40 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LS/77 AVIATION...NP/92