Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
651 FXUS64 KCRP 171128 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 528 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 519 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Above average temperatures continue through mid week, then cooler behind a cold front later in the week. - Low to medium chances for showers/thunderstorms (20-40%) across the northern Brush Country, northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads Wednesday, increasing to a medium to high chance (30-60%) across S TX on Thursday ahead of a cold front. - Small Craft Advisories possibly needed Wednesday through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1157 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 High pressure will continue to shift with a few shortwaves moving across Texas. A deepening mid- to upper level low will develop across the Desert Southwest by the middle of the week, tightening the pressure gradient and leading to moderate to strong southerly winds and increasing moisture across South Texas ahead of the next cold front. There is still uncertainty with the timing and strength of the cold front so we will continue using the NBM timing which keeps the front expected Thursday night/Friday morning. There will be a pre-frontal boundary that leads to some showers and thunderstorms which also confuses the situation just a little bit. Guidance hints at a winds shift and a low to medium (20-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday across the northern Brush Country and Coastal Plains, and over the Victoria Crossroads as the boundary interacts with low-level moisture. Chances increase to a medium to high (30-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday as the actual cold front approaches and moves across South Texas. Depending on the timing of the front, there could be a few strong thunderstorms Thursday/Thursday night. Rain chances will diminish through the day Friday behind the front as cooler and drier air moves into the area. A low (10-30%) chance of showers will continue into next weekend due to isentropic lift. Patchy to areas of fog can be expected each morning through early next week, mainly inland Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Brief periods of visibilities down to a 1/4 of a mile will be possible. Dense Fog Advisories may be needed. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Poor aviation conditions are forecast this morning across area terminals with ALI/VCT at IFR/LIFR levels due to fog development. Conditions will improve around mid morning with a return to VFR. Another round of patchy fog can be expected late tonight primarily affecting ALI/VCT sites again. Winds will increase across the region today, becoming gusty at around 20-25 knots by the afternoon. Winds will remain elevated through the evening hours before decoupling overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1157 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 A south to southeast moderate (BF 4) breeze will increase to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze Monday afternoon. A cold front will approach the area Wednesday, increasing winds to fresh to strong Wednesday night through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory may be necessary. Winds will diminish to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze and shift to the south and southwest Thursday night. Winds will shift to the east then northeast Friday as the cold front moves across the Coastal Waters. Rain chances increase the middle of next week ahead of the cold front, with a medium chance (40-65%) as the cold front moves through the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1157 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Light to moderate southerly winds and continuing moisture advection will help limit fire weather concerns across South Texas. The winds are expected to strengthen through mid week ahead of a cold front, but afternoon RH values will be above 40% west to 60% east. The cold front is expected to move through South Texas Thursday night into Friday morning. High ERC values and dry fuels are still in place, so caution is urged around any sparks or open flames. The next chance for rain will be the middle of the week as the cold front approaches South Texas. Behind the cold front, RH values will remain elevated along with a chance for wetting rains and lighter winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 86 70 86 71 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 86 65 87 67 / 10 0 10 10 Laredo 92 72 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 90 67 90 68 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 82 71 83 71 / 10 0 0 10 Cotulla 90 70 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 89 68 89 69 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 81 73 82 74 / 10 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LS/77 AVIATION...ANM/88