Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
953 FXUS64 KCRP 312335 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 635 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 619 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning today and continuing into Tuesday. Greatest chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday. - WPC has a Marginal to Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across South TX through tonight. A Marginal Risk continues through Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 As expected, we are starting to see showers and thunderstorms develop, mainly over the Victoria Crossroads and along the coast. Our most recent sounding (08/31 at 00Z) showed PWAT values at 1.73 and current satellite estimates are around 2.0-2.2" in these areas, with drier air over the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains. There is still some question as to how far southwest the moisture will reach, but mesoscale models hint at some convection reaching as far west as Cotulla late tonight then continuing further south into portions of Webb County. Therefore, we still have 20-50% chance of PoPs across and west of the Brush Country, with a 40-70% chance over and east of the Coastal Plains tonight through Monday. WPC has included the Victoria Crossroads in a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for today and tonight. They then highlight a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Monday and Monday night for the entire area. Localized flash flooding is possible in low-lying and poor drainage areas--especially in storms with high rainfall rates. As the boundary moves through the area Tuesday, rain chances will diminish and the main threat across the area returns, once again, to the heat. Temperatures will be "cooler" with precipitation and cloud cover Monday and Tuesday, leading to highs "only" in the 90s. By Wednesday, those will creep back up into the mid-90s along the coast to low 100s out west. South Texas summer is not really over, so continue to practice heat safety. Remember that heat stroke is an emergency. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 At time of writing, convection that developed earlier over VCT has moved south-southwest and is expected to continue for the next few hours. The atmosphere seems to be be stabilizing in the wake of the outflow which should allow for conditions to quiet down through most of the overnight hours. The closer we get to tomorrow morning, coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity becomes more uncertain. For now, we have kept PROB30 groups for -SHRA and -TSRA in the TAFs for all sites, with eastern sites beginning just before sunrise expanding westward by early afternoon. Overall, VFR conditions can be expected with gusty winds and MVFR to IFR conditions in and around any showers and thunderstorms. Winds will shift east then to the northeast/north tonight through Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Light to gentle (BF 2-3) southeast to east winds this afternoon and evening will become gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) northeast and north winds tonight through Tuesday. A medium (40-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening through Tuesday before chances diminish through Tuesday night. Winds will return to onshore flow late Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 91 76 93 / 40 50 40 40 Victoria 75 90 73 96 / 40 60 20 20 Laredo 78 97 76 96 / 10 40 50 40 Alice 76 93 75 96 / 30 50 40 40 Rockport 78 90 77 92 / 50 60 40 30 Cotulla 77 93 75 96 / 30 50 40 20 Kingsville 76 93 75 93 / 30 50 40 40 Navy Corpus 81 89 80 90 / 40 50 50 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...LS/77