956
FXUS64 KCRP 232341
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
541 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 310 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

- Small Craft Advisory conditions expected tomorrow afternoon
through Monday Morning

As the surface high continues to shift east today, highs will
continue to be slightly above normal through tomorrow ahead of the
next cold front. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s
by tomorrow afternoon. The pressure gradient will tighten over the
region with the surface high progressing off to the east and the
approaching trough digging to the north. This will increase our
winds over the waters around 20 knots Sunday afternoon through
Monday morning. Therefore, Small Craft Advisory conditions will
exist for this period though the pressure gradient should relax some
time Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

The long-term forecast period begins on a warm note, with strong
onshore winds driving temperatures into the mid to upper 80s on
Monday. Overnight, a weak cold front will move through the region,
bringing colder and drier conditions. Low temperatures Monday night
will drop into the low-50s to low 60s. Ahead of the front, a
tightening pressure gradient is expected to result in elevated
winds, potentially causing adverse marine conditions and an
increased risk of rip currents. Rainfall is unlikely for most of the
area during the front`s passage due to limited low-level moisture,
with PWATs near or below 1.00 inch. However, isolated showers could
develop near the coast and over area waters where the boundary may
stall.

Behind the front, winds will briefly shift to the north, and daytime
highs on Tuesday will moderate into the 70s. By late Tuesday into
Wednesday, the front is expected to return northward as a warm
front, accompanied by increased warm air advection. This setup may
produce isolated streamer showers, particularly on Wednesday and
into the holiday on Thursday. Rain chances will remain low (10-30%),
while temperatures rise once again into the 80s.

A stronger cold front will move through on Thursday, bringing more
significant impacts. Similar to the earlier front, elevated winds
are expected ahead of this systems due to a tightened pressure
gradient, leading to continued adverse marine conditions and rip
current risks. However, this second front will usher in a more
pronounced cool-down. Behind the front, highs on Friday will range
from the upper 60s to low 70s, with low temperatures dropping into
the mid-40s to low 50s on Thursday and Friday nights. Elevated post-
frontal winds will persist for some time, further extending marine
hazards into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Light southeasterly winds will persist through the early morning
hours as VFR conditions prevail through the forecast for all
terminals. Lower ceilings and fog development is more favorable
northwest in the Del Rio region but we`ll monitor for spreading
potentially into the COT area. However, probabilities are low at
around 30%. A tightening surface pressure gradient will lead to
stronger southeasterly winds during the late morning and
afternoon hours tomorrow across South Texas, with sustained 15-20
knots and gusts nearing 30 knots along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Weak southeast winds are expected to gradually increase
through the remainder of the day reaching moderate to strong
levels by tonight. Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop
by Sunday afternoon and winds will remain moderate to strong
through Monday morning as they shift and become more southerly.
South-southeasterly winds will be moderate to strong through
Monday afternoon before they decrease to more weak to moderate
levels and shift to become northerly overnight in the wake of a
weak cold front. The front will likely not make far offshore
before it begins to lift back northward as a warm front, bringing
with it the return of onshore flow on Wednesday. Winds will
strengthen once again to moderate to strong levels mid-week ahead
of a second cold front, remaining elevated through the beginning
of next weekend. Rain chances will be slim (less than 10%) through
Monday with low chances (10-30%) for rain Tuesday through Friday
across the offshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    63  84  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          57  85  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             59  88  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          67  81  69  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           60  88  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        61  86  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       70  80  72  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for
     GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP/92
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...EMF/94