171
FXUS64 KCRP 040519
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1219 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

- Low rain/storm chance Victoria Crossroads today.

- Major to Extreme Heat Risk conditions expected over the weekend.

- Increasing rain chances next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Convection over North Texas early this morning will drift into
Central Texas, but is most likely to dissipate before reaching our
northern zones. Have kept a low (20%) chance in the Victoria
Crossroads, but non-mentionable pops elsewhere. A lingering boundary
could allow for some redevelopment of convection with afternoon
heating, again this should be limited to the Victoria Crossroads
region.

Mid-level ridging will keep things quiet across the region through
the end of this week and the weekend with seasonal or slightly above
seasonal temps. Deep layer moisture does decrease over the weekend
allowing those temps to top out around 105-107 west. This will
increase the potential for heat advisory conditions as heat index
values reach above 110 for several hours in the afternoon.

As we head into next week, the mid-level ridging is expected to
shift westward and allow for a more active pattern across our
region. Some models are suggesting a front reaching northern zones,
but that may be a stretch given the time of year. Regardless of the
front, rain chances to look to increase to a more medium chance (30-
50%) Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

MVFR ceilings have been observed and will continue to develop
through the early morning hours. Given persistent conditions, kept
borderline IFR/LIFR vsby at ALI. A line of showers and storms north
of the area will approach South Texas Wednesday morning but are
expected to dissipate. There is a low 20-30% chance of activity
making it to the area; therefore, I included a prob30 to reflect
this low chance for VCT. Southeasterly winds will generally remain
between 10-20 knots through the afternoon, increasing a few knots
over the Brush Country late in the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Onshore moderate breeze (BF 4) is expected through the end of the
work week with brief periods of a gentle breeze (BF 3) each
afternoon Wednesday through Friday. Another plume of Saharan
dust is expected this weekend which could result in hazy skies.
There is a low to medium chance for showers and storms Friday,
and again early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  79  92  78 /  10   0   0   0
Victoria          93  75  94  75 /  20   0  10   0
Laredo           102  78 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             98  76  97  75 /  10   0   0   0
Rockport          91  80  91  80 /  10   0   0   0
Cotulla          102  78 103  77 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        94  77  94  77 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       88  81  89  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...EMF/94