501
FXUS64 KCRP 081737
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1137 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Key Messages:

- High risk of rip currents in effect through Sunday afternoon

- Coastal Flood Advisory in effect through Saturday morning

- Small Craft Advisory in effect for the Gulf waters through
  Sunday afternoon

There are a few things for us to talk about for today through
Saturday. We are aware that all eyes are watching Hurricane
Rafael. The National Hurricane Center`s forecast continue to keep
Hurricane Rafael on a westward track through the weekend before
turning to the southwest. It looks like Rafael is will start to
experience some shear and dry air intrusion tonight, but it is
still holding on to major hurricane status today. Based on this,
we remain confident that the impacts from Rafael will be limited
to marine and coastal hazards. Long period swell and high surf
from Rafael will continue to lead to periods of minor coastal
flooding, so have maintained a Coastal Flood Advisory through at
least Saturday morning. It is likely that the Coastal Flood
Advisory will need to be extended should wave action continue
beyond Saturday. These conditions will also lead to a high risk of
rip currents today and tonight. While winds will not be as
conducive to a high risk of rip currents for Saturday, the
combination of long period swell, high surf, and minor coastal
flooding resulted in enough confidence to issue a High Risk of Rip
Currents through Saturday afternoon. Elevated seas will also move
into the area resulting in a Small Craft Advisory for our Gulf
waters.

Closer to home, a weak cold front will move across South Texas
tonight. Temperatures will cool slightly from today`s mid to upper
80s to the low 80s Saturday. Low to moderate rain chances are
possible, mainly late today and tonight as the front slides
across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Key Messages:

- Continuing to watch Hurricane Rafael

- Hazardous marine conditions and coastal hazards

The main issue is how Hurricane Rafael will affect the middle Texas
coast over the rest of the weekend and through next week. NHC path
is still for Rafael to move west into the western Gulf, before
stalling, and eventually moving south into the Bay of Campeche. Some
of the models, and ensembles go north or let it meander in the
central/western Gulf into early next week. The likelihood of Rafael
get to the Middle Texas are small, with the 500 mb jet so close to
the Gulf Coast, producing the wind shear that will rip it apart if
it gets to the region. While it doesn`t look like it will make land
fall in Texas, it will generate high waves in the Offshore and
nearshore waters, as well as, send long period swells which will
likely produce more coastal flooding along the beaches.

The only rain that is expected is in the offshore waters when Rafael
is in the west/central Gulf, and when a cold front moves through the
region Wednesday/Thursday.

Temperatures will be warm through the period. After the cold front
for Saturday, temperatures push back up to near 90s from the Coastal
Plains to the Rio Grande, and they stay that way through Wednesday.
Then another cold front will move through, and highs will struggle
to get to 80.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Currently have VFR/MVFR conditions. Winds generally light with
some gusts possible up to around 18-20 knots this afternoon. A
cold front will move through South Texas tonight with winds
shifting from the north from around 23Z-06Z with mainly MVFR and
some IFR possible. There`s low to moderate chances for showers
20-40% mainly affecting eastern terminals late tonight. MVFR
conditions may extend into tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

A cold front will shift our weak to moderate onshore flow to the
north by Saturday. Swells will increase this afternoon as
Hurricane Rafael moves into the western Gulf. Seas will build to
6-9 feet for the offshore waters, and 5-7 feet for the nearshores.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore waters
through Sunday afternoon, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect
from late tonight through Sunday afternoon. Winds will diminish to
weak to moderate from the north by Saturday, but the waves will
still be 7 to 8 feet during the night, and probably into Sunday.
So will continue the small craft advisory through Sunday. Low to
medium rain chances will continue through Saturday night and
Sunday. Onshore flow returns early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    85  69  82  66 /  10  30  10  10
Victoria          87  65  80  62 /  20  40  20  10
Laredo            86  65  79  63 /  10  20  10   0
Alice             89  69  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
Rockport          84  69  80  66 /  10  20  10  10
Cotulla           84  64  81  61 /  20  20  10   0
Kingsville        87  69  83  66 /   0  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       81  71  79  70 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for GMZ250-255.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...BF/80