571
FXUS64 KCRP 031135
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
635 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Well-above average temperatures, reaching into the 100s across
  the Brush Country.

- Breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts in the 30-40 mph
  range through Friday.

A deep mid-to-upper level trough over the Desert Southwest
continues to keep much of the region under dry, southwesterly flow
aloft. However, at lower levels, moisture advection persists as
south-southeasterly flow transports higher dewpoints into the CWA.
A 40-55 knot 850mb LLJ off the coast is enhancing this moisture
transport while also mixing down stronger winds to the surface. As
a result, winds will be strongest in the coastal zones, where a
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through early Saturday
morning. HREF guidance shows low probabilities (10-20%) of winds
reaching Wind Advisory criteria, so have opted against the
issuance of one this forecast package. Forecast trends will
continue to be monitored throughout the day today to determine if
an inland advisory will be necessary.

Later this morning, a dry line will push through the Brush Country
before stalling near the Coastal Plains, maintaining hot and dry
conditions to the west and warm humid conditions to the east.
This dry line will also contribute to locally strong winds in the
coastal zones today and into Friday as well as above-normal
temperatures. Highs will climb well into the 90s across much of
the area, with the Brush Country flirting with the triple digits.

By late Friday into the weekend, the aforementioned mid-to-upper
level system will track from the Desert Southwest into the
Southern Plains, increasing rain and thunderstorm chances. More on
this in the Long Term Discussion below!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Cold front Saturday with well below normal temperatures Sunday and
  Monday.

- Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions return this weekend
  into next week.

Not many changes from the previous forecast package. A cold front is
still expected to push across the region Saturday with a good punch
of cold air in its wake. Unfortunately, rain chances have come down
across the area compared to last night`s forecast package. While the
best chances for rain remain in the Saturday to Saturday night
timeframe, only a few areas in the northwestern Brush Country and
Victoria Crossroads have a low (20-30%) chance for showers while
most of South Texas remains dry. Any showers that develop are
expected to be light with less than 0.10" forecasted for the
aforementioned timeframe.

Temperatures Saturday ahead of the front will be above normal with
daytime highs running 5-8 degrees above normal, mainly across the
Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Areas across the Brush
Country will see near normal temperatures. Temperatures will quickly
plummet in the wake of the front as a significantly colder airmass
advects into South Texas with lows Saturday night dropping into the
40s and 50s. Daytime highs Sunday will be well-below normal with
highs ranging 10-15 degrees below normal! A gradual warm up is
expected Monday and Tuesday before returning to near normal values
by mid-week and continuing through the end of the work week. As for
the overnight lows, the chilly temperatures will hang around through
Wednesday night before lows increase into the mid 50s to 60s
Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

MVFR CIGs are currently in place at all sites, and these
conditions are expected to prevail for much of this TAF cycle.
Some patchy fog continues to linger across eastern portions of
South Texas. Elevated winds have limited overall fog development
overnight and early this morning, and what little of it there is
is forecast to mix out just after sunrise. Intermittent periods of
VFR conditions are likely by the late morning to early afternoon
hours, but MVFR CIGs will dominate. Winds will remain elevated
today due to a strong LLJ just off the coast. Sustained surface
winds will range between 15-20 knots with occasional gusts to
25-30 knots. As we head into this evening and tonight, MVFR CIGs
will continue to be the story with some models indicating IFR CIGs
for a couple sites into Friday morning. Isolated patchy fog will
again be possible overnight tonight, but with winds expected to
remain breezy due to the aforementioned LLJ, reduced VSBYs are not
expected to be a problem as of this writing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Fresh to strong (BF-5/6)southeast flow is expected from now until
our next cold front on Saturday. Winds will weaken to more
moderate levels (BF-4) Saturday as the front approaches and sweeps
across the area before quickly increasing to strong to near gale
levels (BF-6/7) Saturday night through Sunday morning. Winds will
relax to fresh levels (BF-5) Sunday afternoon through Monday
afternoon before eventually decreasing to gentle to moderate
levels (BF-3/4) Monday night through mid-week. Low to medium
(20-50%) rain chances will be possible Saturday and Saturday night
across the Gulf waters as the front swings by.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The passage of a dry line across the Brush Country will drop
minimum relative humidity values as low as 10-30% today. 20-ft
winds will remain on the weaker side and are expected to keep the
fire risk at bay through the start of the weekend. Elevated to
critical fire weather conditions will return this weekend into
next week. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
Saturday and Sunday as relative humidity values across the Brush
Country drop to the 20-30% range. The limiting factor will be the
Energy Release Component (ERC) values below the 60th percentile.
However, as we head into next week, ERC values will increase and
spread eastward with reaching the 70-80 percentile range Tuesday
which will be out best shot for critical fire weather conditions.
Apart from the elevated ERC values, relative humidity values are
forecast to range from 15-25% across the Brush Country and the 25-
40% range for the rest of South Texas. While relative humidity
values are expected to remain relatively low, 25-30% across the
Brush Country and 35-45% across the Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads, relative humidity values will be above critical levels
across the eastern half of South Texas with only the western half
at risk for elevated fire weather conditions at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  74  89  73 /   0   0  10  10
Victoria          90  73  87  71 /  10   0  10  20
Laredo           101  74 100  67 /   0   0   0  20
Alice             97  73  96  70 /   0   0  10  10
Rockport          85  74  84  74 /  10   0  10  10
Cotulla           98  75  98  69 /   0  10   0  30
Kingsville        98  73  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       83  74  82  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...KRS/98