132
FXUS64 KCRP 052332
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
532 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 123 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

A 500 mb closed low is expected to progress eastward off the
Mexican coast/Lower Texas Coast this afternoon, eventually moving
over the Gulf. At the surface, south-southeasterly winds will
dominate, becoming breezy this afternoon and again on Thursday as
high pressure remains anchored over the eastern Gulf/Florida
while low pressure crosses the Southern Plains. Isolated showers
have developed over the last couple hours across the Victoria
Crossroads and portions of the northern Coastal Plains. A low
(10-20%) chance of showers was introduced across these locations
through this afternoon as we will continue to be under the
influence of the aforementioned closed low and PWATs around 1.5
inches (as seen by today`s 1200Z CRP sounding).

Fog will once again be a concern tonight, with another Marine
Dense Fog Advisory likely as surface mixing decreases and moisture
pools near the surface. Dewpoints will remain slightly higher
than water temperatures, promoting fog development, a pattern
expected to repeat Thursday night.

Temperature-wise, not much has changed since the last forecast
package. Lows tonight and Thursday night will dip to generally
the mid-60s. By Thursday afternoon as cloud cover begins to break,
highs are anticipated to rise. Portions of the Brush Country will
approach the 90 degF mark while temperatures along the Coastal
Bend will range from the 70s on the barrier islands to the mid-80s
further inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 123 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

- Very unusual warm pattern through early next week, with
  temperatures flirting around record highs, especially over the
  Brush Country

- Areas of sea fog with visibilities less than 1 nautical mile
  remains a concern through this weekend.

We start out the long term period with upper-level quasi-zonal
flow across the CONUS, a mid-level low over the western Gulf, and
warm moist south-southeasterly surface flow. The aforementioned
low is expected to remain quasi-stationary while the high
pressure builds and moves eastward over South Texas this weekend.
Towards the end of the weekend into early next week, several mid-
level disturbances embedded in the flow bring a southward moving
cold front and a reinforcing surge of high pressure behind it.
Timing on the front is uncertain due to model discrepancy as to
where the front stalls and the strength of the reinforcing surge.
The GFS, has the FROPA on Monday, while the ECMWF shows late
Tuesday. Despite uncertainty and deviation in the model guidance,
there is still a very low (15%) chance for rain Monday over the
Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Plains along with PWATs
around 1.5". Rain chances then increase to low to medium (20-40%)
on Tuesday in coordination with FROPA.

As for temperatures, expect them to be above normal, yet steady,
this weekend with highs in the mid 70s to the low 90s and lows in
the 60s. During the first half of next week, a cooling trend will
kick in associated with the cold front. Highs will reach the 60s
during the day with lows in the 40s at night, but uncertainty is
high considering this is towards the end of the period.

Lastly, marine fog will be a recurring issue through the weekend
as elevated dew points in the mid-to-upper 60s remain higher than
sea surface temperatures. Expect patchy to dense fog to develop
each night over the bays and nearshore waters, occasionally
drifting inland, especially, along the Coastal Bend. Cooler drier
air in wake of the front early next week will hopefully prevent
additional marine fog development.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

VFR to MVFR conditions remain in place until tonight as conditions
are expected to deteriorate as patchy to dense fog moves into the
region. This is expected to lower ceilings and visibilities across
all TAF sites to IFR to LIFR conditions. This should dissipate by
mid to late morning Thursday as winds increase returning to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Sea fog will remain a concern through the weekend, but confidence
lowers as we head late into the weekend and sea surface
temperatures near dewpoints. Weak to moderate south to
southeasterly flow of 10-15 knots will persist until a cold front
moves offshore sometime around mid-week next week. Behind the
front, expect moderate northeasterly flow to result in near Small
Craft Advisory conditions. There`s a low to moderate (20-40%)
chance for showers over the waters around mid-week with the best
chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    66  81  65  82 /  10  10   0   0
Victoria          66  83  65  84 /  10  10   0   0
Laredo            65  87  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             66  85  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          65  76  65  77 /  10  10   0   0
Cotulla           65  88  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        66  83  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       66  74  65  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for GMZ231-232-250.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for GMZ236-237-255.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...NP/92