Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
254 FXUS64 KCRP 021127 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 627 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Low to medium (20-50%) on Wednesday. - Seasonably hot and dry for remainder of the week including the Holiday Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Today will see one last chances to wrench out high amounts of PWATs (in excess of 2.33" per the 00Z July 2 KCRP sounding). Hi- res models continue to stream chances for showers and thunderstorms northward across South Texas throughout the morning. Similar to as in days prior, brief gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfalls are the main impacts. The mid-level high pressure system that has brought in bouts of showers/thunderstorms in the last few days will begin to moving westward across Texas through Thursday. This will dwindle chances for precipitation across South Texas heading into the Independence Day weekend, with seasonal heat and up to a Moderate Heat risk. Looking ahead into the upcoming week, a weak inverted trough in the northern Gulf will increase chances for precipitation (20-30%) for tropical-like showers and thunderstorms, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall rates and gust winds. These are looking to be mainly confined to the open waters of the Gulf and along the immediate coastline. Confidence will depend greatly on the location of this inverted trough axis (if location south of Louisiana waters, increased confidence). && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Mostly VFR conditions currently this morning with CIGs above 3kft. Scattered showers continue to move northwest across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. Isolated showers will be possible this morning across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads, as well. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected through the afternoon for COT and LRD with a medium to high (30-60%) chance. There is a 30% chance across ALI through the afternoon. VCT and CRP have a 20% or less chance for convection by this afternoon. IFR conditions are possible in and around the heavier convection. Outside of showers, VFR conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon, especially across the ALI, CRP and VCT TAF sites. Rain chances decrease across S TX this evening, with a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions expected for all S TX TAF sites through the overnight hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Gentle to moderate onshore flow (BF 3-4) and near 3 ft seas persist through Friday night. Winds relax to mostly gentle flow with 1-2 ft swell through the upcoming week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms primarily increase across the open waters from the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 77 91 78 / 30 10 20 0 Victoria 91 75 91 76 / 20 10 30 10 Laredo 88 77 93 76 / 50 20 10 10 Alice 90 75 91 75 / 30 10 20 0 Rockport 89 80 89 81 / 30 10 20 10 Cotulla 90 77 93 76 / 60 30 30 20 Kingsville 89 76 90 76 / 30 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 88 81 88 81 / 20 10 20 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AE/82 AVIATION...TE/81