466
FXUS64 KCRP 261949
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
249 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

- Moderate risk of dangerous rip currents through Sunday

The weak 500 mb shortwave looks like it is leaving the vicinity
of South Texas as the mid level clouds begin to strip off leaving
the cu streaks that are beginning to mix out along the Coastal
Bend. The showers/sprinkles around the region also are beginning
to diminish as the better organized showers near VCT have moved
north into South Central Texas.

So for the rest of tonight and through Sunday night, models are in
agreement that there won`t be any 500 mb shortwave troughs moving
through the region. The only issue will be cloud cover overnight.
With the moisture still running between 1.5" and 1.7" PWAT values
(between the 75th and 99th percentile), humid air, and lower
clouds will be the rule for tonight, which will take probably
until the early afternoon before the clouds mix out, only for the
clouds to move back in by midnight Sunday, and stay into Monday.

It looks like we continue the moderate risk of rip currents
tonight and Sunday. We are still right around the New Moon, and an
onshore flow that has lasted for over 4 days. The swell periods
and swell heights are subsiding, so the threat will probably begin
to lessen Sunday night and into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Key Messages:

- Low (10-20%) rain chances return to South Texas by mid week.

- Above normal temperatures continue through next week.

- Cold front with showers and thunderstorms possible Friday

A mid to upper level ridge will continue across South Texas, keeping
our temperatures above normal and the area mostly dry through
Tuesday, though isolated showers will be possible along the sea
breeze. Moisture will increase with PWAT values nearing 1.7"
Wednesday just as an embedded short wave moves along the northern
periphery of the high. This will lead to a low (20-30%) chance of
showers and thunderstorms across the northern portions of the region
and  a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
southern portions of the area. Showers and thunderstorms chances
will persist through Thursday before increasing to a low to moderate
(30-40%) chance on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front.
Confidence on anything to do with Friday`s potential cold front is
very low due to uncertainty in the guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

ALI, CRP, and VCT are still going back and forth between VFR and
MVFR CIGS as the moisture continues to be high. However, the
expectation is that it will become VFR for the later afternoon
(~21z), which would last into the evening. Then the whole process
would start over again with MVFR CIGs returning after 03z. most
models suggest 06z or later, but based on last night`s trends,
left the 03z start times. Based the models and last night`s
trends, VSBYs are expected to be VFR, with TEMPO MVFR, and mainly
for VCT and ALI. Otherwise VCSH at VCT as the showers/sprinkles
continue around the Victoria Crossroads, with the showers expected
to stop by 21z when the 500 mb wave moves through the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

A moderate (BF 4) onshore breeze will persist through this weekend
with seas generally between 3 to 4 feet. An onshore moderate to
fresh (BF 4-5) breeze is expected Monday through Wednesday, with
Small Craft Advisory conditions possible across the bays and
nearshore waters south of Port Aransas. Onshore winds will
diminish to moderate Wednesday, then to a gentle to moderate (BF
3-4) breeze for the remainder of the work week. There is a 10-20%
chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Winds and humidity level are expected to stay below critical
thresholds through next week, though brief elevated fire weather
conditions are possible over the Rio Grande Plains when minimum
afternoon relative humidity values drop below 30% and ERC values
rise above 70% Monday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    71  85  72  86 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          70  87  70  86 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            70  96  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             70  91  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          74  84  74  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           70  96  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        71  87  72  89 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       73  81  74  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...JSL/86