Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
867 FXUS64 KCRP 301111 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 611 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 601 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 - Moderate to major heat risk continues through the weekend across South Texas, with localized extreme heat risk possible across portions of the Brush Country. Further heat advisories are likely. - Elevated fire weather conditions remain possible across the western Brush Country through late this week. - Low rain chances return Sunday as moisture gradually increases across South Texas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 An expansive mid-level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature through the period, though it will gradually retrograde farther west this weekend and become centered over the lower Colorado River Valley. This will allow slightly deeper moisture to return to South Texas and weaken the subsidence enough to support isolated showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, with rain chances increasing to around 20-25% across much of the forecast area. Despite the uptick in rain chances, widespread wetting rainfall is not anticipated. Hot conditions will persist through the forecast period with daytime highs generally in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees inland. While forecast heat indices have trended slightly lower for Saturday and Sunday compared to previous forecasts, widespread values of 110+ degrees remain likely, and Heat Advisories will probably be needed. Heat Risk continues to range from moderate to major with isolated areas of extreme remain possible through the weekend. Otherwise, little day-to-day change is expected as generally dry conditions prevail outside of isolated convection late in the weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 A swath of clouds from ALI to Whitsett has led MVFR CIGs at ALI. VCT also had MVFR CIGs earlier at 04-05Z and is expected to briefly have low CIGs again through sunrise this morning. CRP and COT are less likely to have MVFR CIGs but low clouds are in the area, thus included a TEMPO group for these sites, too. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail much of the TAF cycle with a repeat of MVFR conditions at times overnight into early Friday morning. Southerly winds this morning will strengthen from the southeast this afternoon with gusts ranging from 20-28 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 119 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 A gentle to moderate onshore flow will persist through the forecast period becoming occasionally fresh at times. Seas generally around 2 to 4 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will become possible mainly over the northern waters beginning Sunday as moisture increases, but otherwise no significant marine hazards are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 119 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Hot and dry conditions will continue across South Texas through the forecast period. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible across the western Brush Country through the end of this week where minimum RH values fall into the 20 to 30 percent range and fuels continue to dry out. However, light to occasionally moderate winds should limit the overall fire weather threat, with no critical fire weather conditions expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 78 94 78 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 97 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 106 78 106 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 100 74 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 91 80 91 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 106 77 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 97 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 89 81 89 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BF/80 AVIATION...TE/81