Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
293 FXUS64 KCRP 212314 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 614 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 603 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - Moderate to high (50-70%) chance for showers/storms Thursday through Saturday. - Marginal risk of excessive rainfall today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 A mid-level high remains anchored over the Four Corners region with mid to upper level troughing extending over South Texas from the northeast. At the lower levels, a shortwave and a surface boundary moving southward today will act as a focal point for shower/thunderstorm development. Abundant moisture will provide the fuel necessary with PWATs increasing throughout the day today to near or above 2.0". A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains in effect through 12Z Friday for all of South Texas. QPF up to 1 inch is generally expected with a low chance for some isolated locales receiving up to around 3 inches during this time- frame, most likely over eastern portions of our CWA. Latest guidance suggests activity beginning around 19Z today through around 03Z Friday peaking approximately between 21Z Thursday-01Z Friday as the boundary combines with the seabreeze and max solar heating. Medium to high rain chances continue into the weekend as the aforementioned features linger around the area. Starting Monday, expect low rain chances with more moderate chances northeast as ridging and high pressure build in from the west and moisture decreases. Winds through the weekend remain light and variable with slightly breezy southeasterly flow resuming next week. Surface temperatures through Friday afternoon will generally range around 90 along the coast to near 100 west and 85-95 Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures Monday through next Thursday slightly warm back to around 90-100. Overnight lows continue to range in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Heat indices through the period will generally hover around 105-110 degrees, except for this weekend as they dip to 100-105. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Scattered showers and storms around the area late this afternoon should largely dissipate over the next could of hours. There will remain a low chance of showers overnight, but generally 20% or less so not including in TAFs at this time. Another round of convection is expected tomorrow, but not as widespread as today. Outside of convection, expect VFR conditions to persist with light winds. However in and around any storms, outflow boundaries, gusty winds will occur briefly along with the potential for brief MVFR CIGS. && .MARINE... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 A variable light to gentle breeze (BF 2-3) is expected to prevail through early next week becoming a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow by mid-week. Moderate rain chances today increase to moderate to high Friday through Sunday with lower chances expected next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 94 76 92 / 40 50 60 70 Victoria 73 93 73 92 / 40 70 60 70 Laredo 77 98 77 95 / 40 60 50 70 Alice 73 95 74 93 / 50 70 60 80 Rockport 76 92 77 91 / 50 50 70 70 Cotulla 76 96 76 95 / 40 50 40 50 Kingsville 74 95 75 92 / 50 60 50 70 Navy Corpus 80 90 80 89 / 50 50 60 70 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BF/80 AVIATION...PH/83