Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
109 FXUS64 KCRP 040539 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1239 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Increased rain chances to 30-40% across the Coastal Plains Friday night - Daily low rain chances into the middle of next week - Minor to moderate heat risk daily with max heat indices 100-110 degrees && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Key Messages: - Low to Moderate 15-30% rain chances across the region today and tonight. - Isolated thunderstorms mainly during afternoon/evening hours this 4th of July holiday. - Low to moderate risk of heat-related impacts. Area Forecast Discussion... (Sunday through Sunday) A mid-level shortwave will move across the region today and tonight and will combine with decreasing moisture (PWATs dropping from the 75th percentile) resulting in low to moderate (15-30%) rain chances across the region. The best chances will be towards the northwestern portions of South Texas. This could impact 4th of July celebrations/fireworks so please plan accordingly. The remainder of the weekend is looking fairly dry. The next shot for some activity will accompany an inverted trough moving westward across the Gulf, approaching the Texas coast early in the week. PVA across our region associated with this disturbance will be limited along with PWATs near or slightly below normal, so have kept low chances (15-25%) for showers on Monday/Tuesday. The remainder of the period is lacking any noticeable features with PoPs very low (<10%). Warmer temperatures are expected across our CWA starting mid-week with an increase in heat risk related illness. Expect heat indices of around 100-110 throughout the week. Afternoon surface temperatures will reach into the low to mid-90s and will approach 105 by late next week out west. Overnight lows will generally hover in the mid-70s accompanied by muggy conditions with dewpoints in the low to mid-70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 While VFR conditions are generally expected throughout this TAF cycle, a few sites could drop to MVFR late tonight into tomorrow morning due to low ceilings with a low chance for IFR conditions at COT. Any site that dips below VFR should rebound back to VFR by 14- 18z tomorrow morning. Winds are expected to increase once again tomorrow morning/afternoon before decreasing back under 12 knots after 02-03z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 A moderate (BF-4) onshore breeze will become a gentle breeze (BF-3) by early next week. Periods of moderate flow can be expected across the bays and nearshore waters through mid-week before increasing in coverage across all the waters for the second half of next week. Low chances (15-25%) for showers/thunderstorms are progged for Monday and Tuesday across the waters. Otherwise expect mainly dry conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 78 89 77 / 10 10 10 0 Victoria 90 76 91 73 / 20 10 20 0 Laredo 93 77 93 76 / 20 20 20 10 Alice 93 75 91 73 / 10 10 20 0 Rockport 89 80 88 79 / 10 10 10 0 Cotulla 92 77 93 75 / 30 20 30 10 Kingsville 91 77 89 75 / 10 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 88 81 88 80 / 10 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BF/80 AVIATION...JCP/84