548
FXUS64 KCRP 032348
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
648 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Minor coastal flooding on Gulf-facing beaches on the barrier
islands and coastal Calhoun/Aransas Counties through at least Friday
morning

- Breezy conditions along the Coastal Bend (gusting 30-40 mph)
through Friday night.

- Moderate Heat Risk on Friday

A low to mid-level coastal trough in the western Gulf waters and
high pressure extending into the eastern Gulf is resulting in strong
south-to-north pressure gradient. Buoys off the Texas coast continue
to observe 20-30 kt SE winds with a persistent wave height at
8-10 ft. Along the nearshore waters and Gulf-facing beaches, swell
heights are 5-6 ft with a wave period near 9 seconds.
Additionally, observations at locations that have already
experienced their high tide are showing near 1.8-2.0 ft above the
prediction. This has led to minor coastal flooding along Gulf-
facing beaches, especially along Port Aransas/Padre Island during
their high tide. With other tide sites in Calhoun County still
awaiting their high tide later this afternoon, a Coastal Flood
Advisory has been issued through 1 AM Friday given that near 2 ft
rise above MSL is still expected. This Advisory may be extended
into Friday night/Saturday morning, but will discuss with the
evening crew and neighboring offices. These long period swells and
strong onshore flow have led to a high rip current risk along the
barrier islands. This will persist through at least Friday
morning.

As we head into tonight, the LLJ will shift westward, more over the
Middle Texas Coast, maxing out near 60 kts at 850 hPa. Given the
limited mixing overnight, most of these higher winds stay aloft, but
by sunrise, those could be mixing down into the boundary layer, but
also with the LLJ weakening at the same time.
Headline decisions about a possible wind headline may be need to
made tonight for areas near the Victoria Crossroads on Friday.

Highs on Friday will continue to be well above normal. This in
combination with high dewpoints (in the low to mid 70s) east of the
dry line. This will lead to moderate Heat Risk on Friday.
Friday night/Saturday morning`s lows will generally be in the 70s
along the Coastal Bend and in the 60s across the Brush Country.

By Friday night, the beginning influences of a cold front passage
will increase PoPs along the Rio Grande Plains, but generally the
greatest chances of accumulating precipitation will remain near the
I-10 corridor and locations to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Cold front Saturday with well below normal temperatures Sunday and
  Monday

- Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions return this weekend
into next week

A mid to upper level low will traverse into the Southern Plains over
the weekend, sending an associated cold front across South Texas
during the day on Saturday. Moisture pooling ahead of this system
will bring PWATs to near 1.5-1.9", and allow for slight rain and
thunderstorm chances (20-30%) across eastern portions of the CWA.
These will be the only precipitation chances that we will carry
through the Extended cycle, as very dry conditions will settle in
behind the front as well as ridging aloft and at the surface.
Elevated to critical fire weather concerns return over the weekend
and persist through at least mid next week, as moisture remains
limited while winds stay elevated, specially across the Brush
Country during the afternoon hours. Onshore flow is forecast to
resume on Tuesday, but PWATs will stay well below an inch through
mid to late next week.

Temperatures will climb into the 80s across much of the region on
Saturday, but these will drop into the mid 60s to low 70s range on
Sunday. A gradual warming trend will ensue thereafter, with highs
climbing back into the 80s to 90s by mid-week. Overnight lows will
be in the mid 40s to low 50s during the weekend into early next
week, before bouncing back into the mid 50s to mid 60s by late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Very gusty conditions at onset of the period should subside east
over the next hour or two, but gusty winds will develop west
through the evening. Winds will remain elevated overnight, but
should drop to a more moderate level compared to this evening.
Note there will be a 40-50kt low level jet near the coast.
Expect low clouds to develop for all sites, mainly an MVFR to IFR
CIG. CIGS improve tomorrow, but we will also develop a gusty wind
again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Fresh to strong onshore flow (BF 5/6) will result in 9-11 ft waves
in the offshore waters, and 7-9 ft along the nearshores. Winds will
weaken to more moderate levels (BF-4) Saturday as a front approaches
and sweeps across the area before quickly increasing to strong to
near gale levels (BF-6/7) Saturday night through Sunday morning.
Winds will relax to fresh levels (BF-5) Sunday afternoon through
Monday afternoon before eventually decreasing to gentle to moderate
levels (BF-3/4) Monday night through mid-week. Low to medium (20-
50%) rain chances will be possible Saturday and Saturday night
across the Gulf waters as the front swings by.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return this
weekend into next week. Elevated fire weather conditions will be
possible Friday through Sunday as relative humidity values across
the Brush Country drop to the 20-30% range. The limiting factor will
be the Energy Release Component (ERC) values below the 60th
percentile and limited 20 ft winds. However, as we head into next
week, ERC values will increase and spread eastward reaching the 70-
80th percentile range Tuesday and Wednesday which will be our best
shot for critical fire weather conditions. Apart from the elevated
ERC values, relative humidity values are forecast to range from 10-
20% across the Brush Country and the 25-40% range for the rest of
South Texas next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  89  72  88 /   0   0   0  10
Victoria          73  88  71  83 /  10  10  20  40
Laredo            74  99  67  87 /  10   0  20   0
Alice             73  96  70  89 /  10   0   0   0
Rockport          75  85  74  87 /   0   0  10  20
Cotulla           75  98  69  86 /   0  10  40   0
Kingsville        74  93  71  89 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       74  83  73  84 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for TXZ245-345-347-
     442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AE/82
LONG TERM....ANM/88
AVIATION...PH/83