Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
026 FXUS64 KCRP 060737 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 237 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 - Moderate to occasionally High risk of heat-related impacts through this week, peak afternoon heat indices 105-110 - Low chances (15-40%) for seabreeze-driven showers and storms each afternoon and evening through Friday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 Very early this morning, an outflow from last night`s convection over Mexico drifted northeastward across the Brush Country, bringing a surprising scattered coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms. As of writing, the outflow is just now making it to Duval and McMullen counties with activity seeming to wane as the atmosphere becomes more stable. Model guidance has underestimated precip coverage over the Brush Country the past few days. Therefore, I`ve increased rain chances to at least 30% instead of the less than 15% NBM wanted to put in for this afternoon. Duval County has notoriously been the sweet spot for strong storms to develop along the seabreeze the past couple of days, something to watch out for if the pattern continues. Moisture will remain above normal through this week, around or greater than 2.0" PWATs, as the mid-level ridge to our north flattens over the southern CONUS and South Texas remains on the southern periphery. Weak mid-level disturbances will occasionally propagate their way westward across the Gulf into South Texas, increasing rain chances midweek. Most convection will be attributed to the afternoon seabreeze, but strong thunderstorms able to produce significant outflows can act as an additional lifting mechanism for popcorn showers and storms to develop. No relief in sight for the above normal heat, with apparent temperatures 105-110 and air temperatures reaching the triple digits over the Brush Country. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions expected overnight. There`s a low chance (20-35%) of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms across South Texas tomorrow afternoon. Accompanied by a southeasterly wind with gusts to around 20KT. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 Light south to southeast flow during the morning hours, will increase to gentle to moderate flow in the afternoon and evening hours through the middle of next week. Seas will continue to generally range from 2-3 feet. We`ll have low rain chances daily with a medium chance for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 Above normal moisture will continue to negate fire weather concerns through much of this week as minimum relative humidity stays above 30 percent. Daily low rain chances along the seabreeze with southeasterly winds generally sustained between 5-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 96 78 97 78 / 10 10 10 0 Victoria 98 76 100 76 / 40 0 30 0 Laredo 100 77 101 78 / 20 20 0 0 Alice 101 75 101 75 / 20 20 20 0 Rockport 93 81 93 81 / 10 0 10 0 Cotulla 99 76 101 77 / 30 20 10 0 Kingsville 99 76 100 76 / 10 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 91 81 91 82 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...BF/80