Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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970 FXUS64 KCRP 221737 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1137 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and will continue to gradually warm up through tomorrow as onshore flow returns. Highs today are expected to range from the mid 70s to lower 80s and upper 70s to mid 80s tomorrow. However, overnight temperatures will remain chilly tonight with temperatures still expected to fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to mid 60s near the coast. Limited moisture availability will keep us dry in the short term. There`s a low to medium chance for elevated fire weather conditions developing this afternoon. Relative humidity values below critical levels ranging between 15-35% will hang around for one more day with Energy Release Component values in the 75-89th percentile across the region which would be conducive for elevated fire danger conditions. However, due to weaker than ideal winds and recent trends, decided to not issue a fire danger product at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Key Messages: - Substantial warmup early this week - Low chance for a significant cool down late next week The long term will be dominated with a substantial warm up featuring high temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal Monday. The surface high pressure we have been enjoying lately will shift eastward through the weekend and give way to zonal flow aloft and onshore flow which will advect a significantly warmer airmass. A weak cold front early to mid next week will briefly bring temperatures back down to slightly above normal levels for a day. Relief to the heat could come towards the tail end of next weeks work week as models show a strong cold front that could result in daytime highs into the 60. However, confidence in that solution is currently low due to model disagreement. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period across all terminals with light variable winds in place under clear skies. There is a low 20-30% chance of patchy fog over the inland Coastal Plains, not enough confidence to include at VCT/ALI at this time but we`ll keep monitoring. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Weak onshore flow will return late this afternoon into this evening, strengthening to more moderate levels Saturday evening. Moderate to strong winds are expected to develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Monday before returning back to weak to moderate levels. Rain chances will be slim (less than 10%) through Monday with low chances for rain Tuesday through Thursday across the offshore waters between 20-60 nm off the Middle Texas Coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 54 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 79 44 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 80 54 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 80 50 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 77 60 78 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 80 51 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 79 51 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 75 66 77 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCP/84 LONG TERM....JCP/84 AVIATION...EMF/94