557
FXUS64 KCRP 091925
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
125 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 123 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Key Messages:

- Hazardous marine conditions and coastal hazards continue

A drier airmass is expected to remain in place in the wake of the
cold front throughout the short term with PWAT values remaining near
1", which is just a tick below the the 50% percentile for this time
of the year. A mid to upper level ridge is expected to begin
building into the region tomorrow which will increase subsidence
across the region. With the increased subsidence and drier air,
showers are not anticipated to develop. However, enough low level
moisture will be in place for patchy fog to develop tonight and
tomorrow night.

The main focus of the short term will be the lingering dangerous
marine conditions and coastal hazards from Tropical Storm Rafael.
Elevated seas are expected to continue through Sunday while the
coastal flooding threat could begin to decrease as early as tomorrow
morning. Despite buoys still showing swell periods of 10-12 seconds,
models are showing swell periods decreasing late tonight into
tomorrow morning. This will need to continued to be monitored to
verify the models have a good handle on environmental conditions.
Would not be surprised if the Coastal Flood Advisory will need to be
extended for another high tide cycle or two due to long swell
periods continuing and the development of Ekman transport with
northeasterly flow. With the increased swell periods hanging around
tonight, continued the high risk of rip currents through tomorrow
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 123 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Key Messages:

- Coastal Flooding and an increased risk of Rip Currents continue
  into next week.

- Mainly dry conditions prevail next week.

a mid-level high over central Mexico and quasi zonal flow across
much of the U.S. will give way to a low amplitude ridge over the
central CONUS. Meanwhile, a mid-level low sits just offshore of the
Pacific Northwest and another one west of Baja, CA. As these
features progress eastward over the next week, a shortwave trough
sweeps across the Great Plains mid-week and an attendant front
slides southward approaching our CWA before stalling and retreating
back northwest towards the end of the work week. Overall subsidence
across the region will keep things dry and warm.

Temperatures remain steady throughout most of the period with
afternoon highs topping out in the low to upper 80s and overnight
lows dipping to the upper 50s to low 70s. Monday night and Thursday
night are forecast to feature lows in the mid 50s across portions of
the Coastal Plains in response to dry air infiltration and mainly
clear skies.

Dangerous beach conditions remain a concern for the first half of
the week as energy from now Tropical Storm Rafael, results in long
period swells of 7-9 seconds combined with astronomical tides. As
such, Coastal Flooding and an increased risk of rip currents are
still possible during this time period. After that, the influence
from Rafael will diminish with the remnants of this tropical system
if any, will be over the extreme southwestern Gulf or southern
Mexico by that point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through this evening into
tonight. MVFR conditions could develop across the eastern sites
after midnight due to low ceilings with a low chance for IFR/LIFR
due to patchy dense fog. The best chances for fog development
tonight will be across ALI and VCT.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Weak to moderate northeasterly flow is expected through Sunday night
with very low (less than 10%) chances for rain. Seas should begin to
subside Sunday and drop below Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday
evening. Moderate northeasterly flow Monday turns more
southeasterly during the first half of the work week, becoming
weak onshore flow by Wednesday. An approaching frontal system will
result in winds veering northeast and increasing to moderate by
Thursday before returning to weak onshore flow late in the week.
Rain chances each day are low (< 20%) except for Wednesday with a
low to moderate 20- 30% chance over the offshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    82  67  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          82  66  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            78  62  86  63 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             84  64  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          84  67  86  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           80  62  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        83  66  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       80  72  81  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ245-342>347-
     442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ250-255-270-
     275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...JCP