138
FXUS64 KCRP 121126
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
626 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

- Minor Coastal Flooding possible during high tide Sunday night.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk will continue Sunday through Monday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions possible Sunday across the Brush
Country.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Minor coastal flooding will continue through Sunday morning. A
Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until 9 AM. The question is will
an advisory be needed again Sunday night? The chance of minor
coastal flooding decreases Sunday night due to light southeast winds
and decreasing swell periods. The P-ETSS indicates tide levels above
2ft MSL through Tuesday during times of high tide, but does show a
downward trend. The Nearshore Wave Prediction System does not
indicate minor flooding. That being said, the swell periods will be
around 8 seconds, which may be just enough to push the water up to
the dunes in some spots. Confidence is low for coastal flooding
Sunday night and am not expecting minor flooding Monday/Monday night.

As for the Rip Current Risk, the winds will be light from the east
and southeast, swell periods will be around 8 seconds, but we are
days away from a full moon. The combination of these features leads
to a Moderate Risk Sunday through Sunday night. By Monday, it`s less
certain with the swell periods decreasing to around 5 seconds, thus
negating the threat. This will likely lead to a Low Rip Current Risk
for Monday.

High pressure aloft will keep rain chances very low (<5%) through
Monday. Low level moisture is forecast to increase slightly Tuesday
afternoon where the chance briefly increases to 20% across the
southern Coastal Bend to the Southern Brush Country. This is due to
a surge of deeper moisture ahead of an approaching mid level
inverted trough. Although there are some timing differences, models
are in pretty good agreement with the trough moving west across S TX
on Wednesday before it gets absorbed by a long wave trough tracking
east across the Rockies and Plains States through Thursday. The long
wave trough tracks across S TX through Friday bringing a low (10-
20%) chance of showers to mainly the Victoria Crossroads. High
pressure builds back toward S TX  by the weekend leading to very low
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast over South Texas
under mostly clear skies. Light southeasterly winds increase to
10-15 knots this afternoon and evening, before diminishing again
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

A gentle (BF 3) southeast flow is expected Sunday. Onshore flow will
increase to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Monday through
Wednesday. Low (5-20%) rain chances expected Monday night and again
the latter part of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Drier air is expected to remain across the region Sunday with low RH
values between 25-30% across the Brush Country to the Rio Grande
Plains. The ERC forecast will be at 70-89th percentile across the
inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country. This may briefly lead to
elevated fire weather conditions in the afternoon. However, a
generally weak east to southeast wind should preclude any fire
weather threats. Minimum RH values increase next week as low level
moisture moves into the area. The chance for wetting rains is low (5-
20%) Tuesday and again Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    88  70  87  73 /   0   0   0  10
Victoria          90  64  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            94  69  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             92  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          87  73  88  74 /   0   0   0  10
Cotulla           94  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        89  67  90  70 /   0   0  10  10
Navy Corpus       85  77  85  78 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...EMF/94