038
FXUS64 KCRP 250820
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
220 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Well above normal temperatures Monday, more seasonal Tuesday

Zonal flow aloft and onshore flow at the surface will continue to
promote warm and dry conditions, leading to daytime high
temperatures well above normal. A weak cold front Monday night will
usher in a bit cooler airmass along with drier air that will allow
temperatures to decrease to more seasonal levels Tuesday. High
temperatures Monday are expected to range from the mid to upper 80s
while highs Tuesday are expected to range from the lower to upper
70s. Despite PWAT values of 1.1-1.3" which ranks in the 60-75th
percentile for this time of the year, the lack of lifting due to the
absence of vorticity with this weak front will inhibit the
development of showers and storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 219 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Stronger cold front for Thanksgiving Day

- Secondary cold front this weekend

Thankfully, a change of pace is expected in the long term with these
abnormally warm temperatures finally coming back to seasonal levels,
and perhaps even slightly below normal levels. A series of cold
fronts are expected in the long term with higher confidence with the
first front Thanksgiving Day. Models are becoming better aligned
with the strength of the first cold front, however, continuing to
have disagreements in regards to timing. The ECMWF is showing a
quicker frontal passage on Thanksgiving morning while the GFS is
showing later frontal passage in the afternoon to evening hours.
When this front sweeps across the region will play a significant
role in our high temperature on Thanksgiving Day. At this time, went
with a blend of models to show seasonal temperatures Thursday with
the colder air advecting southward Friday. Onshore flow is expected
to return early this weekend with a secondary front sweeping across
the region late this weekend cooling us down once again.

One last warm day is expected Wednesday with temperatures ranging
from the mid to upper 80s before dropping to the mid to upper 70s
Thursday with the frontal passage. High temperatures Friday in the
wake of the front will be slightly below normal with highs in the
upper 60s, struggling to reach 70 degrees. A slight warmup Saturday
is expected with the return of onshore flow before the second cold
front sweeps across the region bringing us down back to the 60s.
Overnight temperatures Wednesday night are expected to range from
the mid 50s to mid 60s before dropping into the 40s and 50s Thursday
night through th weekend.

Rain chances will be slim (less than 10%) through this weekend
despite the passage of a couple of cold fronts due to unfavorable
dynamics. While confidence is low at this time, our next best chance
for rain appears to be late this weekend into early next week with
low to medium (20-40%) chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Light southeasterly winds will continue through the early morning
hours before strengthening to sustained 12-15 knots and gusts around
20 knots in the afternoon. Chances of fog has increased since the
last forecast package, now a 30-50% chance mainly over the inland
Coastal Plains and Brush Country. The more prone areas of VCT/ALI
may see vsbys even less than in the forecast but confidence is low
to include at this time. Have included a window for LRD and COT as
well for patchy fog. A cold front will extend into VCT and COT near
the end of the forecast, shifting winds out of the north to
northeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Moderate to strong southerly flow will continue this morning and
gradually relax to more moderate levels late this morning into this
afternoon. Winds will shift to the north late Monday night and
strengthen back to moderate to strong levels in the wake of a weak
cold front. Winds will quickly relax to weaker levels and shift back
to the southeast Tuesday evening. These weaker winds will be short
lived as winds are expected to restrengthen to moderate to strong
levels Wednesday ahead of a cold front Thanksgiving Day that will
shift winds back to the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    87  58  75  63 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          88  49  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            87  58  74  60 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             90  56  77  59 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          83  56  75  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           88  55  74  58 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        88  58  76  61 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       81  61  73  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...EMF/94