559
FXUS64 KCRP 071937
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
237 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Key Messages:

- Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions Tuesday

- Below normal temperatures through mid-week

The area will remain under the influence of a surface high through
the short-term period, maintaining dry conditions overhead. Minimum
RH values below 30% inland, and below 40% along the coast will
combine with breezy afternoon winds and ERC values in the 70-90th
percentile (spreading E) to contribute to Elevated to borderline
Critical fire weather concerns this afternoon and again Tuesday.
A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect through 7 PM this
evening across South Texas.

Otherwise, expect below normal temperatures through the cycle. Highs
will range in the mid 70s to mid 80s tomorrow, with overnight lows
in the 40s tonight, and in the 50s Tuesday night. Winds will be
around 10-15 mph through this evening out of the NW-N, and light and
variable overnight. No additional hazards are expected at this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Key Messages:

- Near normal temperatures return this week

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions continue into next week

The long term forecast remains largely unchanged with troughing
across the eastern CONUS, ridging over the western states and a
few canadian lows that remain in the higher latitude states
dropping down into the Great Lakes region. This will result in
northwesterly flow across much of the Southern Plains, reinforcing
dry conditions across the region and sending a frontal boundary
southward across our CWA on Friday. GEFS plume modeling shows the
mean PWAT progged around 0.50-0.85" (around the 25th percentile or
less) throughout the week. There is a wide spread between models
and the GFS is currently an outlier suggesting values over 1.0"
for Friday. However, will favor the middle of the road solution
for now and not stray from the NBM for PoPs, which remain near
zero throughout the entire period.

The dry conditions will feel nice but will also increase the risk of
wildfires. Low RH values combined with moderate to high ERC values
will be enough to promote elevated to critical fire weather
conditons and may result in the issuance of a Fire Danger Statement
or possibly a Red Flag Warning, but will continue to monitor
expected conditions throughout the week.

Temperatures will trend warmer this week except for Friday behind
the front with temperatures up to 5 degrees cooler. Generally highs
will range in the mid 80s to 90s with triple digits returning to the
Brush Country by early next week. Overnight lows through the end of
this week will range in the 50s to 60s, then early next week will
warm to the mid to upper 60s across the region. Skies throughout the
long term period will be mostly clear.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the cycle at all terminals.
Winds will increase to around 12-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
this afternoon across the three eastern sites, while remaining
light and variable out west. Winds across the east will diminish
and become light this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

A moderate to gentle breeze (BF 3-4) will continue tonight before
diminishing to a light to gentle breeze on Tuesday (BF 2-3). A
gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow returns Wednesday night
through Thursday before becoming light to gentle again (BF 2-3) by
the end of the week. A tightening of pressure gradients will lead
to a moderate to fresh breeze (BF 4-5) early next week with
possible Small Craft Advisory conditions. Chances for
precipitation remain near zero.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions continue on Tuesday
due to critically dry fuels with Energy Release Component (ERC)
values in the 70-90th percentile. Expect minimum relative humidity
values below 30% inland, and below 40% along the coast Tuesday
afternoon along with winds around 10-20 mph. Although winds will
be on the weaker side around mid-week, relative humidity values
between 15-25% across the Brush Country and 25-50% across the
Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads will hang around through
Thursday before increasing to 20-50% region wide Friday and 15-40%
through the weekend. ERC values will remain in the 70-90th
percentile into next week. The low minimum relative humidity
values coupled with the moderate to high ERC values will be enough
to promote elevated to critical fire weather conditons daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    49  79  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          42  77  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            50  85  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             45  82  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          55  77  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           48  86  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        47  82  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       60  75  63  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...ANM/88