967
FXUS64 KCRP 221916
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
216 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 209 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect until 8 PM this evening. Another
  advisory may be needed Thursday.

- Monitoring for impacts along the Middle Texas Coast from
  Tropical Storm Bertha.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Ridging over the Southern Plains will maintain hot and generally dry
conditions across the region through Thursday morning. Afternoon
highs will range from the upper 90s along the Coastal Bend to around
100-105 degF inland. When combined with dewpoints in the 60s and
70s, heat index values are expected to peak between 108-114 degF,
resulting in moderate to major Heat Risk (levels 2/3 to 4). A Heat
Advisory remains in effect for much of the area until 8 PM today.
While conditions at quick glance look favorable for another advisory
tomorrow, confidence is lower due to arriving rainfall associated
with Tropical Storm Bertha (more on this below!) sometime tomorrow
afternoon. At this time we have held out on issuance and will
reevaluate conditions with our overnight forecast package.

Speaking of Tropical Storm Bertha, satellite images indicate that
the center of Tropical Storm Bertha has made landfall near the
Biloxi Wildlife Management Area in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana.
The system continues to move slowly west- northwestward across
the northern Gulf. Satellite, radar, and NOAA and Air Force
reconnaissance data indicates that persistent northeasterly wind
shear is displacing the deepest convection south of the exposed
low-level circulation. Continued shear, dry air entrainment, and
increasing land interaction are expected to promote weakening over
the next 24-48 hours as the system tracks near the Louisiana
coast before moving inland over East Texas. While there remains
some uncertainty regarding the potential for a new circulation
center to redevelop beneath the aforementioned convection, the
current forecast continues to favor the storm weakening and
dissipating after moving inland.

Although the center of Bertha is forecast to remain to our north,
model data hints that its asymmetric structure will allow for
tropical moisture and broad-scale ascent to extend farther south and
west than the circulation itself Thursday/Thursday night. This will
allow for an increase in rain and storm chances. Rainfall coverage
and amounts remain a little uncertain given Bertha`s evolving
structure, but current guidance suggests generally 1-3 inches with
locally higher amounts beneath any heavier cells. Marine and coastal
impacts will also become more noticeable toward the end of the week
despite Bertha remaining north of the region. Long-period swell is
expected to build, increasing the risk for rip currents and
dangerous surf over the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conditions will persist throughout the remainder of the day with
light, variable winds. MVFR conditions due to fog are possible for
ALI from 10-14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue across the
rest of the area through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southerly flow is forecast through
Thursday morning before transitioning to become more moderate to
fresh (BF 4-5) in response to Tropical Storm Bertha. Although the
center of Bertha is forecast to remain to our north, model data
hints that its asymmetric structure will allow for the convective
cluster southwest of the circulation itself to progress over area
waters Thursday/Thursday night leading to moderate rain chances.
By Friday night/Saturday into early next week, dry conditions
return as well as gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow and a
fresh (BF 5) breeze developing along the coast south of Port
Aransas in the afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    81  98  78  93 /   0  40  70  10
Victoria          81  99  77  94 /  40  30  60  10
Laredo            83 107  79 100 /   0   0  50  40
Alice             80 103  76  97 /  10  30  60  10
Rockport          83  95  80  91 /  10  50  70  10
Cotulla           84 107  80  99 /   0   0  40  20
Kingsville        80 100  77  95 /  10  40  60  10
Navy Corpus       83  92  80  89 /  10  50  70  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>234-239>244-
     246-247-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...KRF/98
AVIATION...DC