Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
908 FXUS64 KCRP 221134 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 634 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 627 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Moderate (40-50%) chance for showers/storms through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 While we`re mostly dry late tonight, could start to see some convection redevelop toward morning as a mid level shortwave rotates around the ridge to our northwest. This convection will most likely remain close to the coast or offshore. Think inland areas will remain mainly dry in the morning hours before convection increases and pushes inland with the sea breeze in the afternoon. Hi-res guidance did a pretty good job overall for today`s convection, so leaning pretty heavily on them tonight and tomorrow with PoPs topping out around 50% for much of the area. The mid/upper level ridge is a bit slower to shift eastward than earlier runs had indicated and this will allow the feed of deep moisture to remain in place a little longer and have spread moderate PoPs now through Sunday. Not expecting much change in overall QPF pattern with widespread totals generally under an inch, but as occurred today, a few slower moving thunderstorms could drop a quick inch or more over localized spots each day. Excessive rainfall concerns are minimal, but we do have a marginal ERO Friday for the Northern Coastal bend where morning convection could be a bit slower moving. After a very warm Thursday, temperatures will drop back a few degrees for the next few days - mainly in the 90s area wide. Gradually warming temperatures are expected next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Mostly VFR conditions will prevail across area terminals through the cycle. The only exception will be in or around the next round of afternoon to early evening hours convection today when visibility restrictions are likely to develop at sites impacted by the storms. Winds will generally be light and variable, except around any thunderstorm that does develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 A variable light to gentle breeze (BF 2-3) is expected to prevail through early next week becoming a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow by mid-week. Rain chances remain moderate through the weekend and decrease as we go through next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 75 93 75 / 40 40 50 40 Victoria 93 73 92 73 / 50 40 50 30 Laredo 98 77 96 76 / 40 30 50 50 Alice 96 74 94 73 / 60 40 50 40 Rockport 91 76 90 77 / 40 40 50 40 Cotulla 97 76 95 75 / 40 30 40 30 Kingsville 94 74 93 74 / 40 40 50 40 Navy Corpus 93 80 93 80 / 40 50 50 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...ANM/88