Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
997 FXUS64 KCRP 172310 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 610 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 542 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday across the Victoria Crossroads. - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts over the weekend and into the middle of next week with max heat indices of 105-110. - Borderline elevated fire weather conditions next week for Webb County. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Invest 93L tropical cyclone formation chance has decreased to a low (10%) chance, currently moving west along the northern Gulf and inland over Louisiana. This feature will generally remain north and east of South Texas, only attributing a low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Victoria Crossroads on Friday. Surface to mid-level ridging will dominate over the Southeast CONUS and influence our region this weekend and continue through the middle of next week. Increasing subsidence and below normal moisture (PWAT < 1.5") will lead to rain-free conditions and seasonal temperatures with highs around 90 along the coast to near 105 over the Brush Country and lows in the mid to upper 70s. Relative humidity dropping below 30% in the afternoons while winds increase to around 20 mph, will increase the risk of elevated fire weather conditions over portions of Webb County. Heat indices will peak to a range of 105-110 daily into the middle of next week, resulting in a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts. Please take heat safety precautions and visit weather.gov/heat for more resources and information. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Persistent forecast with generally VFR conditions prevailing across S TX a majority of the TAF period. Brief MVFR conditions can be expected between 10-14Z Friday morning. The CRP TAF site is the least likely to see MVFR conditions, therefore left it out, but did include TEMPO groups for the other S TX TAF sites. Light patchy fog with VSBYs briefly dropping to 4-5SM can also be expected Friday morning from ALI to VCT. S-SE winds will decrease tonight, then restrengthen Friday with gusts around 20-25KT. && .MARINE... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Mainly gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly winds with gusts to fresh (BF 5) levels will persist over the waters through the upcoming weekend and into next week. Occasionally higher gusts around 25 knots will be possible from Port Aransas southward to Baffin Bay each afternoon. Rain chances are low Friday and Saturday, decreasing to near 0 through the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 94 77 93 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 74 94 75 95 / 0 20 0 10 Laredo 75 101 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 73 97 75 97 / 0 10 0 0 Rockport 79 91 81 90 / 0 10 0 0 Cotulla 76 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 73 94 75 95 / 0 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 79 88 80 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...TE/81