Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
133 FXUS64 KCRP 291124 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 624 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 - Moderate to major risk of heat will continue across South Texas, with localized extreme heat risk possible across portions of the Brush Country. Further heat advisories may be necessary. - Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible across the northwestern Brush Country, expanding over the Rio Grande Plains and adjacent areas by Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 A mid-level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will remain the dominant weather feature through much of the forecast period, maintaining hot and generally dry conditions across South Texas. Afternoon temperatures will continue to climb through the week, with HeatRisk remaining moderate to major through Friday before moderate expands over most of South Texas to locally extreme across portions of the Brush Country over the weekend. Although some locations may briefly meet Heat Advisory criteria on Wednesday, coverage appears too limited for an advisory at this time. Please continue to practice heat safety as heat indices around 110 and higher become increasingly common this week, especially this weekend with isolated locations across the southern Coastal Bend approaching 118 degrees. Forecast confidence decreases slightly late Saturday into Sunday as a weak mid-level disturbance rounds the eastern periphery of the ridge, bringing a low (15-20%) chance around the Victoria Crossroads for showers and thunderstorms with most locations expected to remain hot and dry. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 Patchy low clouds are noted across the area this morning with most sites still at VFR, but the potential to briefly go MVFR at any time in the next couple of hours. By mid to late morning will return to VFR conditions. Have included mention of MVFR again tonight for ALI, but holding off on other sites for now. Breezy southeasterly winds develop this afternoon and persist through the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 A gentle to moderate onshore flow will mainly persist through the period as ridging remains over the Gulf, with occasional fresh (BF 5) conditions during the evening and overnight hours. Seas will remain around 2-4 feet. Dry conditions are expected through the forecast period, with probabilities near zero, slightly increasing && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 Hot and predominately dry conditions will persist through the forecast period. Minimum RH values will continue to fall into the 20- 35% range across portions of the Brush Country each afternoon while 2-foot winds generally remain below 15 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible across the northwestern Brush Country during the latter half of the week before expanding across much of the western Brush Country Saturday through Monday as hotter temperatures overspread the region. ERC values remain in the 50th to 69th percentile, while RFTI values increase to around 3 across portions of Webb county and adjacent areas on Thursday. Although widespread critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated, any fires that develop could exhibit increased rates of spread where the driest fuels and lowest humidity overlap. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 96 79 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 96 76 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 104 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 100 75 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 90 81 91 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 104 78 106 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 97 77 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 92 81 90 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BF/80 AVIATION...PH/83